Eeny, meeny, miny, moe, pick the Rockets most favorable foe.
Amid the Houston Rockets late-season surge, dimming hopes of making the play-in have suddenly glistened into more than a pipe dream. The Rockets remaining in play-in contention should be considered a win given the trajectory they were headed in prior to the winning streak, but the thought of making the tournament it is rapidly taking form.
Operating out of cautious optimism towards the possibility of postseason play, I’ve started to ponder which matchups would give the Rockets an even better chance at an extended their season.
Either way, it’s likely that if the Rockets do sneak into the play-ins, it would be as the tenth seed, ninth seed at best. Currently sitting 2.5 games behind the Golden State Warriors, it’s likely that Houston would face off versus them or the Los Angeles Lakers in a one-game elimination.
However, with only four games separating the sixth place Sacramento Kings and the Warriors, there’s still room for the standings to realign. Also joining the clump of teams jockeying for position are the Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns.
Regardless, the Rockets would have to beat two of these teams, no matter what, to vault from play-in to playoff status as the official eighth seed. At this point we’ll take the invite, but it’s still worth delving into what is the most ideal path forward.
Rockets record against the play-in competitors
3-0 versus the Kings,
1-0 versus the Mavs (two games remaining)
2-2 versus the Suns
2-2 versus the Lakers
0-2 versus the Warriors (one game remaining)
Among these teams, it’s clear that the Kings are the least intimidating. Despite the Kings getting a taste of the playoffs for the first time in forever last season, they remain the least tenured team with postseason experience and lack the Hall of Fame credentials of the other four teams.
However, the likelihood of them falling to the ninth seed is wishful thinking given that they’ve hovered within range of the six seed for most of the season. A bout in Sacramento may have to wait until the second round of the NBA Play-In Tournament if all goes well.
The issue with the four remaining teams is that they are all loaded with a multitude of elite scorers and champions from the game’s history. That causes concern, at least for a winner-takes-all scenario. While I believe the Lakers and Warriors are the lesser of the four, who really wants to see LeBron James or Steph Curry in a game for all the marbles?
History already suggests that bad things happen whenever the Rockets take on the Warriors in a playoff atmosphere. Is it necessary for the Warriors to dance on the Rockets’ grave once again?
What about some interstate rivalry? How about the Mavs? Well…Luka Doncic hasn’t been kind to Houston over the course of his career, and the results have weighed heavily in his favor over the course of that time. Slowing down Doncic and a revitalized Kyrie Irving doesn’t sound like a walk in the park.
It also doesn’t sound too tantalizing should the Rockets draw the Suns. Phoenix carries the most boom or bust potential entering the playoffs as their ability to get tough buckets hinges on the backs of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. If their offense goes nuclear, it could be a major problem for Houston.
However, due to the questions that surround Phoenix’s depth and defense, I think they would rank among the more favorable options in a nine vs ten matchup. The reason being is that Houston seems to get up a bit more for Phoenix games. Combine that with the volatility that has been the Suns’ health this season, and I think they could be the most vulnerable in a one-game series. Unfortunately, they’d need to slide quite a bit in the standings for that to become a reality.
Ultimately, that leaves Houston with a “would you rather” between Golden State and the Lakers. Would you rather go through LeBron and Anthony Davis, or Steph Curry and the rest of The Jackson 5? Mind you that Curry’s supporting cast still holds a whopping amount of big game experience.
The answer is still the Warriors, despite what has transpired over the past decade. They’re the smallest team in the bunch, and should Alperen Sengun return, Houston might be able to impose their physicality on them. It would be a righteous moment in Rockets history, the upstart team full of youth exercising some demons against the aging team that tormented them for years.
In the happenstance that Houston bounces one of these teams in the nine vs ten game and moves forward to face the loser of seven vs eight, the hope is that it would be the Kings. At this point, it’s conceivable that the Rockets’ race towards the playoffs will require a pitstop (or two) in Northern California.