Much like groceries prices, buying a bucket has become harder to come by.
The Houston Rockets currently stand at 12-6 and are only a game out of first place in the Western Conference. The team has exceeded expectations and looks to have one of the brightest futures. To the casual fan, this would sound great. For Rockets fan, it has been promising, but it hasn’t come without grievances.
Even though the team has been among the league’s best so far, there still feels like there’s some meat left on the bones. In particular, this team has annoyingly mimicked their NFL counterpart, the Houston Texans. Both teams are feisty on defense, yet their offenses —loaded with firepower — have largely been lackluster. For the Rockets, poor shooting is the telltale sign that this team has a ways to go.
Houston falls in the middle of pack scoring wise, but they rank in the bottom five of shooting percentages. The team is the third worst three-point team by percentage, and to top things off, they are also bottom five in free throw shooting. That’s a recipe for disaster if the trend were to continue.
On the bright side, Rockets opponents have put up similar shooting splits in games against Houston. Defense has been this team’s saving grace. In fact, the Rockets starting lineup has been the best defensive lineup throughout the NBA this season, based on defensive rating. Two thoughts on that. 1) Ime Udoka has done an incredible job of getting the starting unit to commit to the defensive side of the ball. 2) The starters better be as elite as they have been on defense given what they’re doing, or not doing, with the ball.
What exactly have the starters done on offense? Nada.
Among eligible players, the Rockets have four of the bottom 24 shooters in the league at the time being. Jalen Green, Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith Jr. are all shooting below 42 percent from the field. Green and FVV are both in the 30s, and they take roughly 30 shots per game between the two of them. Half of those shots are taken behind the three-point line, and they’re both only shooting 30 percent from there.
Simple math says that it’s hard to keep up winning ways when 80 percent of your lineup is shooting below league average, which is approximately 45 percent.
Why have they been so bad?
This boils down to the identity of these players. The truth is most of these guys are streaky shooters at best, and this is par for the course. VanVleet is a career 40 percent shooter, although he is hitting way below his 37 percent three-point average. FVV evening out there would aid Houston’s cause tremendously.
Brooks is a 41 percent shooter through his eight seasons, but he’s actually shooting a career-best 39 percent from deep. It’s been a sneaky good season for DB and he’s been a huge reason that the team has been humming early on. While he’s not an offensive juggernaut, Brooks isn’t a concern.
The biggest issues, sadly, have come from the frequently-discussed Green and Smith. The organization has invested heavy amounts of equity into these two as they were projected to shoulder much of the offensive load for this team coming into their respective drafts.
Green is currently posting 38/31/85 splits and Smith is shooting 42/33/87. That simply won’t be satisfactory for the long-term if it keeps up. While it’s not uncommon for high-volume shooters to shoot under league average, it can still be crippling to the team when there’s more bad shooting nights than the other way around.
Green was supposed to be the guy on the wing that can create buckets to push the team over the edge when all else fails. Smith was supposed to be the floor-stretching big that had shades of Kevin Durant. That hasn’t been the case thus far, and at a certain point, we have to accept that neither of these guys are going to provide consistent shot making.
That’s disappointing, but we’re not asking for the world here. We just need the frequency of good and bad shooting nights to level out. For example, Green has only shot over 40 percent in 3-of-13 games through November. That’s unacceptable. Smith has only accomplished it in four of those games. Go figure.
The shooting issues have to come under even more scrutiny when you consider that Houston has players that are performing better coming off the bench. Tari Eason and Amen Thompson have made impressive cases for promotions to the starting lineup. If the players that are expected to space the floor aren’t spacing the floor, what’s the argument against inserting the Terror Twins into the starting five? Some may consider that a rash decision, but it’s one that could be considered proactive.
Another suggestion would be to double down on Alperen Sengun’s touches. Yes, his shot attempts may live closer to the rim, and that’s a big reason as to why he has a higher field goal percentage, but it also makes sense for the best player on the team to get more attempts. At the very least, Alpy should be the first option, always. The more attention that he commands only stands to give the players around him better looks.
At that point, it’s up to the streaky shooters to go on a streak, but at least they’ll do it with a tad more space due to the eyes on Sengun. Plus, it’s time we get back to the basics and play inside out. With the defense the Rockets have, they can afford to trade wishy washy three-point attempts for higher-percentage twos. It’s still to be determined when Houston will find their rhythm, but until the shots start falling, they need to embrace the rock fight lifestyle.