It’s never too early for the trade winds to swirl.
The Houston Rockets roster is set (for now), but you shouldn’t expect for this to be the case for the entirety of the 2024-25 season. Houston had a relatively quiet offseason, choosing to re-sign their free agents and hold onto the third overall pick which netted them Reed Sheppard.
That was all for a reason, that reason being it’s what the market dictated this summer. No franchise-altering deal came to fruition, so Rafael Stone and co. did the wise thing, surveyed the landscape and pushed back any win now moves until the harvest is ripe for picking.
Despite a lack of splashy moves this offseason, the Rockets can still boast about being 15 deep. Houston has a gluttony of riches, and with there being so many mouths to feed, they won’t be shy to consolidate talent if the opportunity comes along.
In determining who the Rockets may have to part ways with, we first have to consider what deal is worth shaking up what has already been built. The superstar market appears dried up for the time being, and with Lauri Markannen officially off the trade board, it’s difficult to predict who the next big fish will become available. However, I don’t believe that will stop the Rockets from seeking upgrades, even if it’s not as grandiose as envisioned.
In identifying players with enough cache to draw Rafael Stone’s attention, yet not cap the franchise’s roster construction capabilities, I eliminated more household names such as Brandon Ingram and Jimmy Butler.
The more viable targets I landed on include Kyle Kuzma, Cam Johnson, Anfernee Simons and Marcus Smart. While these are all players capable of playing integral roles, none of them are All-NBA talent or bring the same fanfare that one might have expected. Regardless, I think they could fit in well with this current group of Rockets.
Alas, in most cases, to get something good, you must give up something good.
Now presenting: The top three Rockets likely to get traded
3. Jae’Sean Tate ($7.5M)
No Rockets trade list would be complete without the inclusion of Tate. The longest-tenured Rocket was brought back this summer via a team option, and it only makes sense that this was to give Stone the flexibility to pull off any trade.
Along with Steven Adams ($12.6M) and Jock Landale ($8M), the Rockets possess a couple of players holding reasonable cap figures to help facilitate deals. With contracts nowadays skewed towards max or minimum numbers, it will be as important as ever to maintain a hold on mid-level salaries that can fit within the trade parameters of the new CBA.
Tate has been a solid and loyal role player over the years, but it would be foolish to think he’ll be prioritized over the Rockets younger (and cheaper) talent. Even if a Tate trade doesn’t bring back a notable rotational piece, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him desired as a deadline piece for a contender scrapping together a competent bench unit.
Either way, don’t be surprised to see Tate’s time with the Rockets coming to a close.
2. Jalen Green ($12.4M)
I earnestly swear I’m not trying to stir the pot. The ideal situation is that Green plays his way into a max deal and silences his critics, but if the first half of the season looks like a rerun of last year, don’t be surprised to see Stone end this relationship prematurely. Green’s cap number alone isn’t enough to bring back one of the players previously mentioned, but paired with Adams’ contract, someone like Anfernee Simons ($25.8M) comes into play.
Portland’s backcourt is overloaded already, and I’m not sure what adding Green to the mix accomplishes for them, but a three-team trade could suffice all parties. For Houston, the group of Simons, Fred VanVleet and Sheppard would give Houston plenty of combo guard capabilities, and for those worried about the long-term fit, remember that VanVleet potentially comes off the books next summer.
The upside that Simons’ possesses would be enough to ease the agony of giving up on Green. Again, a Green farewell isn’t what I’m rooting for, but as it currently stands, the window to decide on his future in H-Town is knocking on the door.
1. Dillon Brooks ($22.3)
For the most part, Brooks had a good first season in Houston. He provided elite perimeter defense, average spacing, and brought an underdog mentality to the Rockets that paired well with Ime Udoka’s get down.
That being said, the ghosts of Brooks’ past showed up on one too many occasions as he flirted with borderline cheap shots and put his team at a disadvantage by reaching the technical foul threshold. Patience can wear thin in competitive environments, and although the organization appears to like Brooks, if a less volatile talent becomes available and the price is right, Brooks could be shipped out for his replacement.
Brooks’ salary jumps particularly off the page because it is conveniently in the range of Kuzma ($23.5M), Johnson ($23.6M), and Smart ($20.2). Each of those players are upgrades in my estimation, at least on the offensive end. Smart’s shooting/shot selection may slightly dip below even that of Brooks, but considering his playmaking ability, defensive versatility, and history with Udoka, it makes for an interesting option.
I defaulted to Kuzma and Johnson as the more optimal options for the Rockets to look at because they offer size on the wing and scoring potential. We’ve already seen both of them play two-way roles on championship level teams, and if Houston could swap one of them for Brooks, I’d consider it a step up.
Just something to keep an eye on.