Good Deals For Everyone?
I wanted to take a bit of time to think over the Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun extensions agreed to yesterday (the last day they could be done).
1. It’s not surprising that the NBA deadline for the deal brought a deal. That’s what deadlines tend to do, if the parties actually do want to make a deal, and are just playing ping-pong with certain terms, or one side is maybe holding out for a bit more. Deadlines are somewhat arbitrary in nature, but their power is real in negotiation.
2. I felt as though both deals would happen, as we heard that negotiations were ongoing, though there was no max offer on the table for either Green or Sengun. One of the main reasons I strongly believed that the players and team wouldn’t go into the off-season next year without these deals is that Rafael Stone is not only the GM of the Rockets, he’s the GM who drafted both players, including Green #2 overall. His future is tied to their future, even if the Magic Eight Ball keeps reading “Reply Hazy, Try Again” when it comes to Green.
3. A deal for Alperen Sengun seemed to me one of the most obvious extensions a GM could possibly attempt, from the Rockets point of view. A look at his continued growth as a player, in some truly dire circumstances early on, and the fact that he showed up this year bigger, stronger, apparently a better FT shooter, and maybe a better shooter from range only confirms this. Alperen’s “same age” trajectory is roughly on par with Jokic. If you’re going to make a play for anyone on the Rockets roster long term, right now Sengun is the one. Others will no doubt come up, and the Rockets will have some difficult choices to make. But not this season. Moreover, for a player on a trajectory like Jokic’s so far, this is very reasonable money.
4. One of the things that I thought was strongly in favor of Sengun signing an extension is that he’s a foreign born player. These players tend to remain with the team that drafted them, if offered a big contract. Certainly they want the best deal on offer, but even more than that, they want the big second contract. Sengun signed a deal worth $185 million total, if it reaches its final season. Would $200 million, for example, have made that much of a difference, over five seasons? It’s certainly a lot of money, but it’s not worth losing $185 million to get it. One of our commenters, from Turkiye, noted that Alperen Sengun is now the highest paid Turkish athlete ever. Miles above, say, Emre Can. By any measure, on court, or monetarily, Sengun’s NBA career thus far is a huge success.
5. Another thing I thought was in favor of a Sengun extension, foreign players care a lot less about which US city they inhabit. Maybe they’re prefer to be in Los Angeles or New York, but they seem to rightly conclude that a huge bag of money makes any US city very pleasant, and you can literally afford to be anywhere in the off season. Imagine you were a star soccer player, how strongly would you prefer to live in Milan, versus Rome, versus Turin, versus Naples? Maybe some. Would you have millions and millions of dollars worth of preference, though?
6. Jalen Green’s deal is a good one for the Rockets. It’s short. It’s not that expensive. It’s third year is likely going to keep Jalen around, for extension reasons, if he’s someone that will be extended. Certainly you might get years after the contract that are much more expensive. That’s, mostly, a good problem to have. It means Jalen has settled more of the high side of the broad range of outcomes for his career.
7. Meanwhile, starting next season, Jalen won’t be that expensive, in The New Money of the NBA rights deal. He’ll basically what a good, not great, player on a second contract costs. He could vastly outperform that deal, as hard as that is to believe, in terms of money, and in terms of the player. He could underperform it, certainly, as well. Given how long it is, though, it’s totally possible to incentivize a trade partner to take the final two years of the deal, should that prove necessary. Because, again, it won’t be all that expensive by then.
8. All in all this, in my view, is great business by the Rockets. Certainly the Rockets would have more flexibility next season with only cap holds for Green and Sengun, but to what end? No one will have much money, so yes, there could have been bidding power, but for whom, exactly? Would it be reduced by these signings? I suggest not. Yesterday’s deadling featured a dozen extensions, most of them fairly large, according to our friends at SalarySwish. This is how business is mostly done now. Teams extend, and then maybe later trade players. Straight big money FA signings are comparatively rare now.
That’s it for these deals, but the even better news is the regular season is finally, finally, starting tonight.