The Houston Rockets crossed the quarter-season mark in dramatic fashion with a win over the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Can they keep up their excellent start to the season for the three-quarters of the season still to come?
The Rockets’ Quarter-Season Review
One-quarter of the way through the season, the Rockets are half a game back from being the top seed in the Western Conference. They’ve had two prove-it-type victories in the past week. The first was their win over the Minnesota Timberwolves to progress to the knockout stages of the NBA Cup. Then on Sunday night, they emerged victorious in a clash of the top seeds with the Thunder.
All of that is to say that the Rockets are having a blazing start to the season, and it looks like more than a flash in the pan. For one thing, the Rockets’ success isn’t easily diminished on scheduling grounds. Basketball Reference considers Houston’s strength of schedule thus far to have been distinctly middle of the pack.
The NBA’s Most Important Variable
However, “Strength of Schedule” is a somewhat unreliable concept in an NBA context. Three-point shooting variance can quickly turn “strong” stretches on their heads. The Houston Rockets are allowing the third-lowest three-point percentage in the league. On the one hand, that aligns with Houston’s excellent defensive reputation. On the other, they’ve also been fortunate to have “allowed” the second-lowest open three-point percentage.
Not all open three-point shots are created alike. Houston has a core philosophy of being extremely stingy with double teams. As a result, they give up the third-fewest wide-open three-point opportunities. Which specific players are typically getting those open or wide-open looks is another variable that Houston seeks to control.
There will be games this season when Houston gets bombed out from three, just the same as any other team. It’s inevitable. But it is clear that this Houston defense is for real. It’s an impressive feat for a team that relies so heavily on a player considered a defensive liability at the most important defensive position, Rockets center Alperen Sengun.
One source of minor disappointment for Rockets fans is that neither of the team’s young stars has taken much of a leap offensively this season. Despite their shiny new extensions, Jalen Green and Sengun are in extended shooting slumps putting up slightly worse numbers than last year. However, the ground bound Sengun has taken a leap of sorts defensively.
The Center of Houston’s Defense
Sengun has defended the fifth-most shots within five feet of any center in the NBA this season at 415. On those attempts, opponents are shooting only 57.1%. That puts him in the same company as Clint Capela, Victor Wembanyama, Jaren Jackson Jr., Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen, as big men holding opponents to under 60% shooting on over 300 attempts within five feet. That company specializes in top-of-the-range rim protection for low and not-so-low prices.
The scheme does matter a lot here. Sengun doesn’t play drop coverage against pick-and-rolls like a traditional rim protector. Instead, he racks up his rim contest numbers from head coach Ime Udoka‘s switching scheme that keeps the big man low and in prime position to help versus drives.
Still, Sengun’s improvement is significant from last season‘s 62.8%. He’s also gotten more comfortable with the hedge defense the Rockets run when he is dragged into defending a pick-and-roll. He contests the ball-handler to take away an open shot and then recovers to his man. It’s a system the Denver Nuggets deployed to great effect in their championship run with Nikola Jokic.
The Rest of the Multi-Winged Hellbeast
Of course, the real strength of the Rockets’ terrifying defense remains their abundance of long, athletic wings. Jabari Smith Jr. has played especially well recently as an additional rim protector. Dillon Brooks remains as pugnacious as ever and still utilizes his signature close-out of leaping into position for either a second jump to contest or an immediate backpedal to take away a drive.
But all the chatter is justifiably centered around Houston’s bench phantoms, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. These two use their absurd physical gifts and relentless energy to completely take over games on the defensive end of the floor. Opposing bench players rock softly and dread being called into the game. Opposing coaches scream at their teams to match an unmatchable physicality. Referees second-guess each other on how the mugging they just witnessed could possibly be within the rulebook.
And The Rockets’ Offense This Season…
And Houston’s offense has…apparently been good enough so far. It’s hard to imagine it could fall off too badly when it ranks fourth-to-last in effective field goal percentage. Green is the team’s leading scorer and is shooting under 40% from the field. Some recent diversification has also helped improve things and more tinkering will surely take place over the remaining three quarters.
Meanwhile, Fred VanVleet is the team’s third-leading scorer and de facto closer. He’s also shooting under 40% from the field. Watching how desperate the Rockets were to get the ball to VanVleet in the final moments of the OKC game was a testament to how utterly the team depends on him. He’s the only person on the roster anybody trusts to dribble and make clutch free throws. While that’s the case, the team has a robust ceiling, but it’s one they won’t necessarily bang their head against too often in the regular season.
The Last Word
VanVleet played like a superstar against the Thunder (even with his nemesis, Ben Taylor, officiating). Unfortunately for the Rockets, he isn’t one. They don’t have one. It may be that nobody on their roster ever becomes one. Right now, Houston fans don’t care. Any notion of superstar trades is a total non-starter at present. It’s the most exciting start to a Houston season since 2017-18. They might not project as a Chris Paul hamstring injury away from a championship, but they sure project as a heck of a lot of fun to watch. Rockets fans are going to enjoy every quarter of it.
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