Last season, the Houston Rockets ranked 25th in the league in clutch win percentage at 42.5%. This season, they rank fourth at 61.9%. They juiced their numbers again on Monday night with another hard-fought win in their January campaign against the Memphis Grizzlies. Even so, the Rockets sure don’t look like other clutch teams.
The 2024-25 Houston Rockets Are Clutch… Sort Of
The official NBA website’s stats section defines clutch time as the last five minutes with a point difference of five or less (though inexplicably doesn’t feature the term in its glossary). The Rockets have played in 21 “clutch time” games this season for 88 clutch time minutes overall.
What’s fascinating about the Rockets’ clutch win percentage compared with the three teams ahead of them is that comparatively, they don’t actually play very well in the clutch. The Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Cleveland Cavaliers have clutch plus/minuses that range from +1.6 to +3.9. The Rockets’ are at +0.6. The other three teams all have clutch field goal percentages over 49% and clutch three-point percentages over 35% (the Cavs and Thunder are both over 50%).
Meanwhile, the Rockets have a clutch field goal percentage of 40.4% and a clutch three-point percentage of 24.2%—numbers that do not sound very clutch. They’re fifth to last in clutch effective field goal percentage and fourth to last in clutch true shooting.
Essentially, the Rockets don’t actually play well in the clutch. So logically, they must make the team they’re up against play even worse. Sure enough, forcing 1.5 turnovers per clutch game is enough to lead the league (tied with the Miami Heat). They also have the fifth-best clutch defensive rating.
However, the Rockets’ clutch-time opponents still shoot slightly better than the Rockets themselves: 42.6% from the field and 30.4% from three. They also take marginally more free throws and, surprisingly, given the saving grace of Houston’s offense, even out-rebound the Rockets (4.6 to 3.1). The Rockets eke out an advantage by rarely turning it over, shooting better from the free-throw line (both with mainly Fred VanVleet to thank), and limiting their opponents’ three-point attempts.
Trying To Make Sense Of The Rockets’ Clutch Stats
The Rockets are living on a razor’s edge, defying Occam’s Razor and pulling out clutch win after clutch win despite not playing well in clutch minutes. The team ranking so highly in the number of clutch games played could be a clue to understanding the statistical soup. The Rockets are tied for fifth. Their stats look more like those of teams ranked one to four than those of other teams with high clutch winning percentages.
The Rockets are prone to sudden scoring droughts, which are often responsible for landing them in clutch situations in the first place. Even when the Rockets subsequently inflict similar droughts on their opponents, and wind up sneaking out ahead, the “damage” to the Rockets’ stats is done. Impressively, they’ve been able to salvage their winning percentage despite that.
All of this will also match the eye test for Rockets fans. By clutch time, the adjustments against Houston’s scorers Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green have already been unleashed. The team struggles to score in the half-court against teams invested in removing those players from the action. The Rockets’ hustle and effort on the defensive end is what keeps them alive.
Is Houston Closing In On A Closer?
However, things could potentially change for Houston if Green’s recent run of play continues. His impressive streak of shooting over 40% from the field in 2025 was extended against the Grizzlies. He even matched his career high.
The appeal of Green has always been his potential as a self-creation superstar. Someone who can attack a set defense and make something out of nothing. The Houston Rockets have survived clutch moments because of their defense and overall tenacity. They’ve looked bad in them and had so many of them because they’ve lacked those things Green can potentially provide.
Of course, the team’s general lack of shooting does nothing to help Green. As excellent as Amen Thompson has been in the starting lineup, helping the Rockets handle the injury to Jabari Smith Jr., the issue of him and Sengun together has been exemplified at times. The scenario is along the lines of: an open Sengun passes to an open Thompson, who fakes a shot and bails on an abortive drive against the sagging defense by passing back to a still open Sengun, who fakes a shot and eventually bricks an open three as an unmoved defender looks on from 10 feet away.
The Last Word
The Rockets wouldn’t be winning games (clutch or otherwise) if Thompson and Sengun weren’t both contributing enormously. Whether it’s screening, rolling, or cutting, they can create space for teammates in ways besides being shooting threats. But Houston still needs a player who can be an on-ball threat to score from anywhere on the court. Green has started to look like that player in recent weeks. If he can keep it up, winning in the clutch might become a lot easier for Houston.
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