The Blocks Are Maybe A Little Dented. No Rumors, Just Speculation.
So, the media world is falling in love with the Houston Rockets. It’s nice to think they like us, they really like us, as we, the readers of The Dreamshake, really ARE the Rockets. The soul of the Rockets anyway.
In their declaration of love, particularly for Amen Thompson, there’s a notable trend of wanting the Rockets to “Make A Blockbuster Trade”. To “accelerate the timeline”. I say the Rockets are doing quite well, and really don’t need to do that.
Also, once again, they cannot trade Green or Sengun right now under any conceivable circumstance. That would have to wait until the off-season. So the Bookers and Lavines will not have a Green, unless it’s Jeff, going the other way.
But could the Rockets add something around the margins that really doesn’t compromise their future, while increasing their chances of success in the present? If so, what sort of player might that be, and what players might fit the bill in reality.
Another note, commentator types often say “Trade a Zach Lavine, for someone.”. This drives me slightly (more) insane. There’s not “A Zach Lavine” like there’s “A Bag of Basketballs”. Zach, and any high end NBA player is singular, not fungible. They make that much money for that very reason (usually, looking at you Bradley Beal). At the lower end, replacement level, vet minimum, they’re still singular humans, but fairly fungible nonetheless in NBA terms, if not to their friends and family.
So what do I think would help the Rockets right now, this season, and post-season? Here are some of my guidelines, and thoughts. (The trade deadline is Thursday, February 6th at 12pm, PST.)
- A real rim protecting center. The ability to be the good ole “Lob Threat” wouldn’t hurt, either.
- Failing that, maybe a true 3pt shooting center to go five out, but Jabari Smith already fills that role, if asked, so it’s not necessary, really, and would only be opportunistic and inexpensive if done at all.
- A guard, hopefully a plausible PG, who can reliably, and sanely, get his own shot.
- If this guard was a good defender, distributor, shooter, then getting his own shot is less important.
- If you could vastly upgrade Fred VanVleet, and also trade VanVleet, maybe you do that. Are you sure the VanVleet culture/defense/intensity thing isn’t still needed?
- The Rockets do not need wings. Their wings can’t even get enough playing time when healthy as it is.
- They can’t trade Jalen Green so I’d think any unlikely dream SG upgrade is off the table anyway.
- Any trade that takes minutes from Amen is insane, and shouldn’t be done.
- No long term salary you don’t like. Expiring, or one year deals are key.
- I’ve largely disregarded teams that consider themselves in playoff contention, unless they have other needs, and a surplus of that type of player.
- I’ve mostly disregarded players that seem part of rebuilding teams’ futures.
- I don’t want to send any Young Core Rockets out.
Who are ideal choices for the Rockets in my view? Here they are:
Centers
Robert Williams III
First off, what the Hell is Portland doing? What’s their plan? Perhaps it will become clear this trade deadline. In any case, their speculation on Williams hasn’t perhaps turned out as they’d hoped, as he’s remained injured and Portland took a center high in the draft, and has Ayton as well.
Williams is currently healthy, and (probably it’s hard to tell with Portland) remains an excellent rim protector and defender, and can be much better in terms of offense if on a team with multiple other true offensive threats.
The Rockets could trade for Williams without sending anyone out. They have their mid-level exception, and a roster spot available. Portland probably wants a pick. What pick? I don’t know where you would put Williams in terms of that value, but from the Rockets standpoint, a more recent pick is maybe better? They will almost certainly be looking to refresh a roster that will get ever more expensive in later years.
Williams is probably my number one target for the Rockets. If Portland wanted Jock Landale, even better. Someone else might want him, too. You’d almost treat Williams like old Dikembe on the Rockets. Take off the shrink wrap once a week to keep him fresh, otherwise, it’s playoffs all the way.
Guards
Colin Sexton
Colin Sexton is putting up good numbers on the somewhat incomprehensible Utah roster. Danny Ainge is Year X into his Y Year rebuilding plan. Those letters aren’t placeholders. It’s totally unclear how long the Jazz intend to rebuild, before really trying to win. Maybe forever?
Sexton is under contract this year and the next. It’s hard to believe he’s part of Utah’s future plans. The Rockets could send Jock Landale, and Aaron Holiday plus a pick of some sort for Sexton. Probably one of their own, in the near future, as it looks like they’ll be good. This gets Utah off Sexton’s deal, and give Ainge more picks for his Y Year Plan.
The main drawback to this fairly sensible deal is that Ainge apparently has to “win” every trade, and by that I mean, get value in excess of what he’s sending out, according to analysis at that moment. It’s kind of a silly way to run things, as you more or less eliminate any savvy trading partner, and any roughly equal value and useful deals, but that’s Danny.
Jordan Clarkson
The Rockets would need to send a lot less, but he sort of does a lot less. He’s an upgrade from Holiday in pure PG terms, but pretty much a downgrade in all others. Ainge probably wants a king’s ransom for the 32 year old Clarkson, so will wind up keeping him.
Lonzo Ball
Falls into the Robert Williams category of “Great, When Available, Which Isn’t That Often”. Lonzo is having a good season, after about a two year absence and experimental knee surgery. He’s still a good defender, passer and shooter and he’s still large. He’d allow the Rockets to play shockingly tall lineups (Lonzon’s 6’6”), if he’s running point. His formerly gaudy 3pt percentage is down, on low volume, this year, but his rebounds, assists, and steals are really superb on a per36 basis. He’s still great running the break, and is, surprisingly maybe, only 27.
The Rockets would need to send out Jeff Green, Jock Landale and Aaron Holiday, and take back Lonzo and Chris Duarte (expiring). They’d need to send some sort of picks to Chicago, but this deal falls more into “doing a favor for Lonzo, and getting a little something back” as Lonzo’s deal is expiring anyway.
His number is too high to be resigned at (20ish million) but if you could resign him into the mid-level, it might be your permanent backup PG, wing, extra defender, etc, of the future, depending on the knee.