The Stealth Development Concern?
Jabari Smith was supposed to be the easy early first round pick. Unlike the mercurial and erratic thrills of Jalen Green, the obvious talent, but difficult to classify role of Amen Thompson, and the “favorable comps to Point Gods but, but,” outlook of Reed Sheppard, Jabari Smith was supposed to be easy.
A 6’10” power forward, possibly small-ball center, with amazing defensive chops and a silky, reliable, three-point shot, Jabari Smith was the obvious fit. He might not be Kevin Durant, but he would play a clearly desirable, if not crucial, role at a position where great defense, rebounding and shooting aren’t easy to find.
Maybe he’s a 6’10” Klay Thompson! Jabari would have the ability to guard out on the perimeter and play inside. He’s not a great dribbler, but with the pretty, and pretty unblockable, three-point shot, he would not need to be.
He presented as a serious young man, a hard-worker, and keen to not only play in the NBA, but to win in the the NBA. He was one of the youngest players drafted when he was selected third in the 2022 NBA Draft. Surely a player that big, skilled, and serious at such a young age would flourish quickly in the NBA?
It hasn’t exactly happened that way.
While there’s nothing to really complain about with Jabari Smith Jr., there’s currently not a great deal to celebrate either. Sure, some of it we can blame on the previous coaching staff. Taking a 19-year-old prospect, running no plays, no actions for him, and expecting him to be basically PJ Tucker, but 20 years younger, was at every level absurdly stupid. Telling a young man who values work, craft and structure to defend, rebound and content himself like one of James Harden’s domestiques, while Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. disported themselves on offense.
This approach in Jabari’s first season appears to be the sort of decision you couldn’t get more wrong if you deliberately tried. I’ll give him a “Welcome To The NBA” pass on his rookie year. What exactly was expected? I’d be surprised if he didn’t meet whatever low expectations there were.
Despite this, Jabari’s spirits seemed undaunted playing his second season for Ime Udoka. Before it started, he appeared at Vegas Summer League, and after a rusty start, quickly dominated, making it clear he didn’t belong at that level.
As the season started, Jabari played hard, competed seriously on any assignment given and racked up some impressive games. He was a steady player at only 20. Even now, he’s a freshly-turned 21.
One thing definitely in Jabari’s favor is that he’s been reliably healthy. He played 79 games his rookie season and 76 last season.
Last season, Jabari averaged 13.7pts/8.1rbs/1.6ast/.8stl/.9blk. He shot 36% from three, and 53% from two, and 81% from the line. There’s literally nothing here not to like.
Another thing in Jabari’s favor is that he’s already a solid contributor on defense and a good, and improving, rebounder. Now that his lanky frame is beginning to pile on muscle, his defense is bound to improve further still. He’s already a solid defender and competent on offense.
Yet it’s hard to get away from the idea that Jabari Smith Jr. could be a lot more. That he’s taking easy baskets off the table himself. We saw Jabari go on a scorching run of perfect, silky, mid-range shots when say an opponent is playing zone, and he sets up 12ft from the basket to break it. He might go 5-for-6 over 10 minutes of play in the second quarter and then shoot twice more in the game.
We see Jabari catch the ball at the three-point line, and instead of rising and firing off the shot, unblockably, in a defenders face, he’ll take a side-step dribble or two, get out of rhythm and clank the shot. Or catch a pass near the basket from, say, Sengun, and instead of just flicking the ball into the hoop or driving for a dunk or free throws, he’ll dribble in heavy traffic and put up an awkward, contested, sometimes doubled, floater.
The best way I can describe his offensive game is that instead of working off his strengths, namely his lovely shot, his height, and an ability in many games to just step into a move with no dribble. Instead, Jabari will work himself into a position of weakness and then lock himself into taking a bad look, with no possibility of a pass off, no matter how much defense and help is present.
Jabari’s handle just isn’t good enough for many of the things he tries. He doesn’t have the variety of of shots, shot angles and release points that someone like Kevin Durant does. He doesn’t have a reliable “drive and then fadeaway because no one can ever block that” shot, but he often tries one anyway.
Those sorts of moves might be possible, if opponents were rightfully terrified of his catch-and-shoot. A shot fake into a move after burying several threes would most likely get him a great shot, if not a dunk.
But that’s not what he does. So far.
So in this, his third year, Jabari is a stealth concern. Not for what he can do, that’s solid, but for the upside as a third star. An extension for a player chosen third will be expensive, most likely. How much better, right now, is Jabari Smith Jr. than Tari Eason? It’s literally a big money question, on the horizon.
Jabari could stake his claim with a lot more of the “6’10” Klay Thompson” stuff, and a lot less of “I want to be Kevin Durant”. Will he? He’s still just 21, so it could be what it takes is time. Establish what he has that’s great, and the rest will follow, not the reverse, which is what he’s mostly done so far. Jabari has this season, and probably next, to nail down a strong future place with the Rockets. Given his drive, and make up, and the coaching staff in place, I think he will.
In Jabari’s case, on offense, he can do more by doing less.