Team & Roster Expectations vs The Weight of Reed Sheppard’s Talent?
Not long now.
It’s not long until Rockets Media Day in a week and training camp opening for the 2024-25 season a day later. The first preseason game is on October 7. In the meantime, we’ve still got things to talk about.
I’ve written about the Rockets minutes crunch, and I’ve written about play styles. I’ve tried to be rational about how minutes will likely be apportioned. There are only 240 minutes in a game, there are certain expectations, for winning, for development, and simply with expectations that come with experience, draft position, and importance to the team’s future.
The Rockets want to contend for a playoff spot. They need to know if they’re going to extend Alperen Sengun (almost certainly) and Jalen Green (somewhat iffy). They need to know what they have in the players next up on the clock.
There’s probably not a lot of room to give rookies big minutes. The Rockets have literally been there, done that, and gotten the shirt.
So for as much as I pounded the metaphorical table in favor of drafting Reed Sheppard, he’s probably not going to play a lot.
And, yet…
There’s this:
Xiane/CBBReference
The above is a list of the per40 minute stats of some selected NCAA point guards. They all comprise a real set of excellence at the position, don’t they? Well they should, you know all the names pretty well, except perhaps one, which is a shame really, as he clearly belongs, too, but was ahead of his time in some ways.
Yes, Reed Sheppard is included, and he always stands out with that gaudy three point percentage. Who are the other guys on this list? Well, most are heading to the Hall of Fame, so I’d say it’s pretty good company.
Here they are:
A: Steph Curry
B: Steve Nash
C: Reed Sheppard
D: Chris Paul
E: Mark Price
F: Damien Lillard
That seems like a good list to be on. Sheppard’s numbers absolutely belong. The only cause for concern at all amongst them is the free throw rate. It’s low, perhaps prompting concern Sheppard will either have trouble getting to the rim, or drawing fouls. Of course, if you make half of your three point attempts, shouldn’t you just do a lot of that? Or was the drive-and-draw-fouls game more of Rob Dillingham’s job?
It remains to be seen, and is a concern to be sure, though how large a concern, no one knows. What also stands out is the crazy steal/block numbers (stocks). Only The Point God compares favorably to Sheppard in “stocks”.
So you’ve got a number three pick that sits comfortably in the stat blocks of Hall of Fame point guards (and Mark Price, who was That Kind of Guard before it was cool.) Doesn’t a guy like that play?
If you believe the numbers of the other players on this list, and well, you pretty much have to, given their NBA careers, how much can you discount Sheppard’s? Those are pretty much the college number sets of a modern Hall of Fame point guard. (Early modern in the case of Price, who’d have truly thrived, I think, in this fast paced, 3pt bombing NBA.)
Those guys were difference makers, and in the case of several, difference makers almost immediately upon entry into the NBA.
Then there’s this. 23rd. That’s where the Houston Rockets ranked out of 30 teams in both two and three point shooting. good for a robust 27th overall in shooting in the NBA. Defense wasn’t the problem, the Rockets were by comparison 6th best in opponents’ shooting.
That is to say, the Rockets need better shooting. The elements of a winning defense are there already. If Reed Sheppard can boost that shooting number, while not bringing down the defensive shooting number, he pretty much has to play, at least off ball.
Despite the log jam of players, despite the minutes crunch, between the player profile, and the desperate need for shooting, I simply think Reed is going to play more than many, including my past self, were expecting.