To put it plainly, very real.
It’s been a quarter century since Steve Francis split Rookie of the Year honors with Elton Brand, the last time that a Houston Rockets player took home the award. It’s been 41 years since a Houston player won the award outright, Ralph Sampson in 1983-84. Yao Ming finished as runner-up in 2002-03, but it’s been a long time since the Rockets had a legitimate candidate for this award. However, Reed Sheppard could end that streak.
How realistic is it that Sheppard holds up the Wilt Chamberlain Trophy at seasons end? If the odds in Las Vegas have any weight to them, he will be up for serious consideration. Following a strong showing in the Las Vegas Summer League, Sheppard vaulted up to the second highest favorite for ROY honors following behind Zach Edey.
With that being said, this year’s ROY race should still be considered up in the air as the uncertainty of this year’s draft class was talked about ad nauseam. Although the draft has come and passed, it’s not like there was a prospect that was seen as the unanimous best player in the class. With that comes uncertainty, but what we do know is Sheppard has made a great case for himself thus far.
What goes into making a Rookie of the Year candidate?
This award is usually one of the easier accolades to guess going into the season. Narrative helps and it’s always easy to talk yourself into having high expectations for one of the top picks. Dating back 20 years to the Dwight Howard draft, eight first overall picks have taken home rookie honors.
Three second overall picks, two third overall picks, and three fourth overall picks have won the award in this same time period. If Reed Sheppard were to win it this season, he’d join LaMelo Ball and Luka Doncic as the other third overall picks to win.
Looking at the main characteristics of what decides the winner, it’s pretty obvious that a high volume of minutes increases one’s chances at winning the award. More minutes means more opportunity, and in most cases, that means a higher scoring average. Of the past 20 winners, 15 of the them led the vote-getters in minutes. What’s not surprising is that 14 of those 15 players also led the rookies in scoring.
The two exceptions were last year when Victor Wembanyama led all rookies in scoring while playing less than 30 minutes per game, and Malcolm Brogdon winning in 2016-17 while only scoring 10 points per game. Joel Embiid was the leading scorer from that year, but he only played 31 games. Embiid’s teammate at the time, Dario Saric, actually finished second in voting, but his play wasn’t as nearly as impactful as the 24-year-old Brogdon.
If there’s any hurdle that could dampen Sheppard’s odds at winning this award, it’s most likely the amount of playing time he receives. With the likes of Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green ahead of him on the depth chart, it’s unlikely that Sheppard approaches the 30 minutes per game threshold.
In fact, the least amount of minutes for a ROY winner in the past 20 seasons came from Brogdon, as he topped out just over 26 per game. Brogdon benefitted from being on a playoff-ready team that gave him a boosted resume in comparison to the more talented players in his class.
Although the time crunch presents a challenge for Sheppard, it does sound like he’ll be prioritized early in his career. That news should relieve some of the anxiety that comes with wagering on Sheppard’s odds.
Something that plays into Reed Sheppard’s favor is that he will also be someone that figures to have the ball in his hands a lot. Noted as being a willing distributor, if Sheppard can put up a lofty amount of assists in addition to his scoring numbers, he can improve his odds as the lead guard off of the Rockets’ bench.
10 out of the previous 20 winners also led vote-getters in assist totals during their rookie campaign. That number is 11-of-20 if you count Tyreke Evans, who just finished under a notch below Steph Curry in dimes. That bodes well for Sheppard as he figures to be the backup point guard.
Overall, what will determine who wins the Rookie of the Year in most instances is whomever is the best overall player. Although the ROY race has had its share of debatable winners, it feels like the correct choice has been made a majority of the time.
If Reed Sheppard comes into the season as the prospect with the most translatable skills, runs an efficient bench unit, and provides the Rockets the boost they need to break their playoff drought, he’ll be rightfully in the mix for ROY.