Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors game preview

The Rockets meet the Warriors for their biggest game in four years

The last time the Houston Rockets played a basketball game of any consequence was September 12, 2020.

The “September” there should be a dead giveaway. It was Game 5 of the Western Conference Semifinals against the Los Angeles Lakers. Houston won Game 1 of that series before dropping the next four. The closest thing to a meaningful game wouldn’t happen until last season when the Rockets were trying to advance in the inaugural NBA Cup, but lost in Dallas to the Mavericks in a tight contest.

But this season has been one of hope for Houston fans. The team has looked good at times, and great at others. They’ve stumbled, sure, but over 82 games that’s going to happen more than a handful of times. Even with those missteps, there’s no way to characterize this season other than “rousing success.” When I asked TDS readers at the beginning of the season where they realistically saw Houston finishing, the overwhelming response was “play-in team.” Now obviously that (or worse) could still happen. The Western Conference is packed once again with good teams. But no one expected Houston to firmly be at the top of the Western Conference in mid-December.

So of course the biggest game since 2020 comes against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have stood in Houston’s way over and over again over the past decade. They assembled a juggernaut at the exact moment that the Rockets created their own. Golden State’s was better. The rise of their superstar coincided with Houston’s, and other than a magical season that ended in a torn hamstring and heartbreak, Steph Curry always received more adulation than James Harden. In every Rockets fan’s heart of hearts, no team has produced more jealously and hurt than the Golden State Warriors.

There are so many factors that go into one franchise “owning” another. Most of Golden State’s 15 straight wins against Houston came at a time where Houston was actively tanking. But not all of them. Several Warriors seem to get up for the Rockets. Jonathan Kuminga has averaged 28 points on 59% shooting (56% from deep) in the two contests so far this season. He dropped a career-high 33 points last week against Houston on 13-22. In the two games since? He’s scored a total of 33 points on 13-31 from the field. It felt like almost every Warrior was in a slump heading into that game, but they all found their mojo against Houston. For some reason, that’s what happens when these teams play.

There’s also the fact that Jalen Green, Houston’s mercurial talisman, has played worse against the Warriors than any other team in the NBA (by far). Green is shooting 29.2% from the field against Golden State and 18.8% from deep. Even with a 92.3% mark from the free throw line, that’s a sub-40% true shooting percentage. Last season, the worst player in TS% was Scoot Henderson. That’s a rookie with a broken jumper who was asked to take a lot of shots on a bad team. His TS%? 48.9%. No other player had a TS% worse than 50%. Jalen Green’s against the Warriors in his career? 39.9%. Against Golden State, he’s the worst player in the league. And the problem is that I think he knows it.

Houston opened as slight favorites in this game. I’m not sure why that is. It feels like the casinos are trying to give away money. Take the Warriors moneyline (+120 as of this writing) and buy yourself something nice. One day, the Rockets will slay this dragon. Tonight, on national television in the first meaningful game for the franchise since September 2020? Yeah it ain’t gonna be tonight.

We’ll be in the Playback room tonight, so you should come join to watch the Rockets and talk about the game. Remember, we get a handful of VIP passes that we give out to anyone who wants to watch the game. No League Pass necessary!

Tip-off

8:30pm CT

How To Watch

TNT and Space City Home Network

Injury Report

Fred VanVleet: GTD

Warriors

Andrew Wiggins: GTD but he’s not missing this one

Moses Moody: GTD

The Line (as of this post)

HOU -2.5

Check here for updates

Looking ahead because we can

Schedule TBD, but either in Vegas, Dallas, or Oklahoma City