There are the “do’s”, but this is mostly about the “don’ts”.
We have arrived at that time of year where NBA rosters are up in the air and player movement is as fluid as can be. Your team may look a certain way one moment, and in the ding of a Woj Bomb, your perception of reality will have changed. Although the Houston Rockets have built up an exciting core and are poised towards taking another step with this group, we’d be foolish to think that anyone is completely off limits.
As the NBA Draft and free agency swiftly approach, what the Rockets choose not to do will be just as important as what they choose to do. With that in mind, here are five commandments for Rafael Stone to abide by this summer.
Do not trade the third pick within the division
With the draft just days away, rumblings from league gossip have grown louder as teams narrow in on their offseason targets. Houston had been deemed the team to keep an eye on for a draft day shakeup ever since they landed the third pick in the lottery, and now we’re starting to hear more about which teams have been contemplating a leap into the top three.
Among the teams most recently mentioned are the Charlotte Hornets and the Memphis Grizzlies. While I don’t hate the idea of the Rockets trading down in the draft, I’m typically weary of trading within the division on draft night. As we can see from the Steven Adams trade, deals between divisional rivals aren’t as taboo as they might seem, but those were different circumstances.
Adams is an 11 year vet coming off injury and the chance of him turning into a star at this point in his career are nonexistent. However, it will be too easy to point back to this hypothetical trade in the instance Memphis and Houston swap picks and the Grizzlies’ pick goes on to destroy the Rockets four times per year for a decade plus. Players tend to remember who passed on them on draft day and hold vendettas and I’d rather not risk pissing off someone with third overall pick potential.
Do not pass on elite three-point shooting
This is my biggest advocacy for Houston staying at three and selecting Reed Sheppard. He fills an immediate need for the Rockets and is one of the best shooters to enter the draft in recent memory. Houston could theoretically address an area of concern and not delay the process of improving their basement dwelling three-point percentage.
Sheppard may not have star written all over him, but his skillset is widely-defined enough to the point that I have no problem stating he’ll be a contributor in some capacity for a long time. Plus, why not lock up a price-controlled shooter with playmaking skills now rather than overspending on a one-dimensional shooter in free agency?
Do not sell cheap on Jalen Green and/or Alperen Sengun
You probably read that and said “duh”, but the point being made is emphasizing how high each player’s trade value should be. We just saw a player from their draft class, Josh Giddey, go for a pretty good role player, but we also saw that Giddey’s shot makes him a liability in the playoffs, thus sinking his weight as a trade piece. Green and Sengun haven’t had a chance to display what they look like in the postseason, but I’m willing to bet their ceiling is still higher.
All that is to say, I think they have the ability to bring in a higher caliber of player than Alex Caruso. I’m not moved enough by Mikal Bridges and Brandon Ingram when it comes to shipping out either Green or Sengun out. They would have to be added without the expense of one of those guys.
Now if we’re talking about a top 20 player in the league, my ears are open. Scanning the NBA landscape, I don’t see a top 20 player that will likely be available this summer.
On second thought, let me revise that.
I don’t see a top 20 player that isn’t in their mid-30s becoming available. For that reason, I doubt either Green or Sengun get moved this summer.
Do not mortgage the future on older stars
We are not in the James Harden business anymore. Repeat. We are not in the James Harden business anymore.
Paul George doesn’t need to move the Podcast P studios here. LeBron James doesn’t need to confuse Space City for Space Jam. Kevin Durant’s next chapter does not start in H-Town. This shall not be a homecoming for Jimmy Butler. None of that.
Whatever it would cost Houston in assets isn’t worth cashing out players that are past the peak of their primes.
Do not engage with the Thunder
This commandment isn’t based on any speculation, I just know that history tells us this is a bad idea. Ignore the fact that Giddey became a depreciated asset because they still got Caruso for him. Houston doesn’t need to be involved in any other deal that will help the competition.