After a rough stretch leading up to the All-Star break, the hope was a rejuvenated Houston Rockets squad could return to the basketball that saw them vying for the two-seed. Instead, their starting point guard is still injured and the team is sliding down the standings. They are currently the fifth seed, three games ahead of the seventh spot. Only six teams avoid the play-in. Can the Rockets overcome their struggles or are they play-in-bound after all?
Did The All-Star Break Help The Rockets Struggles At All?
Over the first seven games since the All-Star break, the Rockets are 3-4. They’ve had quality wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Milwaukee Bucks. The Minnesota victory benefited them since the Wolves are the current occupier of the seventh spot in the West. If the Rockets want to avoid the play-in, they must stay ahead of the wolfpack.
Unfortunately, Houston has had mixed results capitalizing on their weak strength of schedule. They beat the San Antonio Spurs but lost to the Utah Jazz, the worst seed in the conference. The Rockets have two games against the second-last-placed team in the conference, the New Orleans Pelicans, coming up next. The team can’t afford to take those wins for granted, especially with young Pelicans stars, Zion Williamson and Trey Murphy III, showcasing their potential.
It’s a mixed bag regarding how much the break has helped the team. The return of Jabari Smith Jr. has given the team a lot more size and rebounding. Unfortunately, his shot (31.3% from three) hasn’t been consistent enough to have helped very much with the team’s constant spacing woes. Still, teams do at least have a notion of having to guard him on the perimeter, which is more than can be said for some of Houston’s other options.
Houston’s All-Star Since the Break
Another hope for the break was that some time off would give Houston’s All-Star much-needed rest. He certainly didn’t get overworked in the event itself. Despite the accolade, Alperen Sengun’s 2024-25 has been a mixed bag. His significant defensive improvement has been a major part of the team’s success. His plus/minus remains the highest on the team. However, he’s also clearly struggled with the league’s defensive adjustments to his potent scoring game.
Over his first six games back from the break (he missed one), Sengun is averaging 23.0 points, 11.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.0 blocks. His scoring has been one of the team’s only reliable sources of offense. He has contributed to that by getting to the line nine times per game. He has undermined it by only making 68.5% of his shots there. More problematically, along with his 4.5 assists, he’s also averaged 4.0 turnovers.
Sengun isn’t quite the elite passer that he’s occasionally billed as. Nonetheless, he is a very willing and able playmaker, who seemingly derives no greater joy on a basketball court than from hitting a teammate with a flashy behind-the-back dime.
It’s also true the Rockets’ spacing does him no favors. Head coach Ime Udoka’s largely static offense may also hold him back as a playmaker. Everybody standing in set spots can work wonders for heliocentric drive artists like James Harden or Luka Doncic. Passing out of the post is about creating angles though. More often than not, it’s the potential recipients who have to make those angles available. That kind of movement doesn’t happen consistently on the Rockets besides the roamings of Amen Thompson.
The Source of the Rockets’ Struggles
What the team really needs is its point guard back. Fred VanVleet did make his much-needed return from injury against the Sacramento Kings. Unfortunately, he was immediately reinjured. He’s been confirmed out for Thursday night’s game against the Pelicans.
The good news about VanVleet’s latest ankle injury is that he said it’s “something a little bit different from what I’ve been dealing with.” The new ankle issue is still likely to be related to the previous one, a compensation injury of some sort. But it isn’t unequivocally a case of the team rushing him back too soon. With any luck, it’s a minor setback and he’ll still be back and fully healthy before long.
In VanVleet’s absence, Rockets fans were finally treated to an impressive showing by rookie Reed Sheppard. He flashed his potential with 25 points in a loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. But it’s still unlikely Sheppard will be ready to assume regular lead guard responsibilities for some time. He scored four points on six attempts in his next game. Much as before, the Rockets are struggling without their pilot.
The Last Word
The Rockets’ season still seems headed for overall success. The expectations were for a hard-fought battle to earn a play-in spot. That might be what it comes down to. It’s just that Houston will be on the other side of it than most expected. They won’t be fighting to get into the play-in. They’ll be fighting to stay out of it. The All-Star break wasn’t quite the reset fans had hoped for, but it’s still a fight the Rockets can win.
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