Can Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green co-exist?

Green has thrived in Sengun’s absence. Is this duo right for the Rockets?

Groucho Marx once said it’s best to “keep an open mind, but not so open that your brains fall out”.

Words to live by. Fans of the Houston Rockets should be keeping an open mind right now. So should the team’s front office. There are a lot of unanswered questions about this team right now.

After all, we thought we knew what should happen when Alperen Sengun went down against the Sacramento Kings. The season was over. Wrong. The Rockets have won all seven of the games they’ve played since that fateful day.

Are the Rockets better without Sengun? No. Your thinky-device is falling out of your cranium: get it together. Sengun has been the team’s best player throughout most of 2023-24. No team in NBA history is better without their best player.

Are Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun a good fit together? That’s a different question. The truth is not always convenient. There are basketball reasons to question whether these two complement each other.

They aren’t especially complicated. Both players seem to be maximized with the ball. That’s not a problem in and of itself, but they also both seem to prefer to occupy the same spot on the floor. Sengun can work as a dribble hand-off hub. He can work from the elbows and score with face-up moves. Still, he’s at his best on the low block.

Guess what happens when Sengun is on the low block? Sengun’s primary assignment is on the low block. Sengun’s primary assignment is a big, so that makes it harder for a drive-first guard to get to the hole. Unfortunately, that’s what Green does best.

Keep an open mind. The best way to solve a dilemma is to entertain every option. Suppose you’ve got a leaky faucet. You can’t afford a repair person, and you’re not especially handy. One option is to burn your house down and try to commit insurance fraud.

You instantly rule that option out. Good. Entertaining it still made for a better thought process. By entertaining every possibility, you avoid potentially overlooking a good one. Be rigorous and thorough when it’s time to make an important decision.

In that spirit, we’re going to entertain all three options here: keeping Sengun, keeping Green, and keeping both. First, let’s deal with some housekeeping notes:

-We’re talking long-term. There is no suggestion of an offseason move in this article – more on that later.

-There are additional questions about how Amen Thompson fits into this whole thing. Again, this is fundamentally simple. Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, and Amen Thompson are the three young Rockets who are most likely to be primary or secondary playmakers. Shooting is a skill that is scarce between the trio.

-Still, for the purposes of this piece, we’re ignoring Thompson. Erase him from your memory. He does not exist. It hurts, doesn’t it?

-We’re also not trying to touch on whether Jabari Smith Jr. can be a five. That’s an entire article. What we are questioning is whether Green needs to play with a five who spaces the floor.

-Lastly, the Green section is a lot longer than the Sengun section. That’s because it felt appropriate to dig into how the Rockets have played without Sengun in the Green section. The goal here is to give equal weight to all possibilities, and I hope that the Sengun without Green hypothetical analysis is roughly equal to its counterpart. It just also felt germane to touch on the actual results of Green without Sengun we’ve seen recently.

Without further ado…

The case for Sengun

The case for Sengun is simple. He has been better. What else needs to be said?

Sure, Green has exploded in his absence. It stands to reason that he has an easier time slashing to the basket when Sengun isn’t occupying the paint. Wouldn’t Sengun get a couple of extra dimes per game if Green was Buddy Hield?

In a sense, players are like genes. There are dominant genes, and there are recessive genes. When these two share the floor, Green concedes to Sengun more often than not. Isn’t there a reason for that?

These two have been in the league for the same amount of time. Sengun has a Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) of 5.8. Green is at 0.4. Sengun has a 2.0 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) – Green is at -1.8. Finally, Sengun has 14.4 Win Shares (WS) and Green has 5.5.

Listen. You don’t have to love advanced stats. Still, you can’t ignore that every compound metric that’s designed to measure a player’s impact on winning says that Sengun has been (a lot) better than Green.

Sure, Green has exploded in Sengun’s absence. In fairness, we haven’t seen an extended spell wherein Green was hurt, and Sengun was functioning alongside an off-guard who would be ideal for his skillset. The metrics suggest that it would look really good. Sengun is on pace to produce like an elite offensive player.

Does that mean he’s the clear choice?

The case for Green

I was out on Sengun. I got back in on Sengun. Next, I was out on Green. Now?

…

It’s tough, man. Let’s start with Jabari Smith Jr. at the five, and what that means for Green. How much different have the Rockets been?

The prevailing assumption would be that they’ve played faster. That should, in theory, explain Green’s increased production. He may be the fastest player in the NBA.

As Nathan will later clarify, the “With Sengun” stats measure the four games that Sengun played after the All-Star break. In other words, the Rockets were already leaning into a faster pace before Sengun got hurt.

There’s no reason that Sengun can’t play in a transition-heavy attack. If he gets the rebound, he can push the pace with his floor vision. Sengun can make outlet passes as well as any big in the NBA.

It is worth noting that the Rockets are scoring 18.7 fastbreak points per game since Sengun’s injury, which exceeds their season-wide mark of 15.6. Again – the Rockets were making an effort to play faster when Sengun was last healthy.

So, if Green excels in a pace-and-space environment, it doesn’t seem that pace is a meaningful factor here. What about space?

That feels like it might count for more. After all, the bulk of the game is played in the halfcourt no matter how often you look to run. Since Sengun went down, it does feel like Green is having an easier time in half-court sets.

To be specific, he’s averaging 30.2 points per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field. That’s superstar stuff. More specifically, he’s scoring 8.9 points in the paint per game, which is a meaningful jump from his season-long 7.2 mark.

Let’s get away from stats. This is common sense stuff. Sengun occupies the paint. Jabari Smith Jr. occupies the perimeter. He draws his assignment away from the paint. It’s easier for Green to get to the bucket when the Chet Holmgren’s and Jarrett Allen’s of the world are supposed to be guarding someone who isn’t in the paint.

Here’s where we make the case for Green. He surely isn’t the only player who’d benefit from playing alongside a stretch big. The Rockets also avoid questions about Sengun’s defensive viability in the postseason by choosing Green.

Put differently, Green is the more portable player. He’s made tremendous strides as a defender this year. He won’t be a target in the playoffs. A wider range of players will be able to co-exist with Green. Even if he’s never a consistent shooter, he will consistently space the floor. His assignment will always guard him on the perimeter.

Let’s circle back to that genetic analogy. Is the dominant gene always the desirable gene? If we remove the Sengun gene from the pool, does the Green gene dominate? (I have no idea how genetics work).

It seems like Green is a rhythm player. He needs the ball to get comfortable with it. Has he had it considerably more without Sengun?

That extra half-second of dribbling may not feel significant. Numbers can’t capture everything. It’s not only about the quantity of touches. We also have to look at the nature of the touches.

The Rockets are third in the NBA in pick-and-roll frequency which results in a field goal for the big (7.1 percent). The pick-and-roll is a two-man action. Green has spent a lot of time watching Sengun and Fred VanVleet this year. Now that Sengun is out, all eyes are on him – and he’s delivering.

It is absolutely worth noting that the Rockets have faced weak competition since Sengun went down. Still, Green performed well in some impressive wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls. Sure, the Bulls aren’t title contenders: neither are the Rockets. That win counts.

The schedule is about to ramp up. If the Rockets can’t manage a couple of signature wins against some playoff teams, this entire article was likely a waste of effort. Otherwise, should they prioritize Green over Sengun?

The case for both

So Sengun is best on the low block. Green is best penetrating to the rim. Really? That’s it? That’s the entire problem?

OK. There are simple solutions. Keep Sengun off the low block when he shares the floor with Green. Use him as a dribble hand-off hub. That keeps the opposing big far enough away from the basket for Green to get there. We’ve seen the Rockets find success with those actions before.

Green needs the ball to find his rhythm? Run more pick-and-rolls with Green as the ball-handler. Simple. We’re on a roll like Alperen Sengun when Fred VanVleet has the ball here.

Stagger the duo. When Sengun is on the floor without Green, get him in the low post. When Green is without Sengun, try to get Smith Jr. at the five.

By staggering them, you’re getting more data. These are two vastly different looks. On the one hand, the Sengun system should be a beautiful orchestra of ball movement. By contrast, Green with Smith Jr. at the five ought to be a cold, ruthless basketball machine.

A common sentiment seems to be “the best teams can attack in several ways”. That’s true. Still, you’re not going to blow two massive cap holds on a pair of incompatible players. The Rockets won’t pay both Green and Sengun market value if they can’t share the floor for 35 when necessary. In the playoffs, you play your best seven to nine players.

So they need more data. Who knows? Green may have turned a corner. It may be as simple as “he’s simply hitting his shots now”. If so, the ever-present Jokic and Murray comparisons may have some merit. If Green has grown into a reliable three-point shooter, this duo could be the foundation of an elite offense.

On the other hand, if the data suggests that Green only thrives when the floor is spaced, the Rockets will have a choice to make. Here’s hoping they keep an open mind:

To an extent.