The Houston Rockets will hope to relaunch from the All-Star break all systems-go. The early tear they cut through the Western Conference that took them to the two-seed had petered out of late. Injuries, particularly to team pilot and starting lead point guard Fred VanVleet, had knocked them off course. But he and power forward Jabari Smith Jr will soon return. Will it be enough to right the ship? The Rockets’ remaining schedule, and especially strength of schedule, may hold some of the answers.
Breaking Down Rockets’ Remaining Strength of Schedule
As of the break, according to Power Rankings Guru, the Rockets have had the sixth toughest schedule of all teams. That means that their remaining schedule is comparatively easy. Not the sixth easiest, but in the easier half of the league. Tankathon goes even further and suggests the Rockets’ remaining schedule is the 10th-easiest.
This is clearly good news for the Rockets. Of particular benefit to the Rockets is that only two teams with easier ones are Western Conference playoff competitors, the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors. The other seven are all in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets turned things around this season from last as far as their winning percentage on the road is concerned. Still, a young team with minimal playoff experience would certainly benefit from a top-four seed and first round homecourt advantage.
Is The Rockets’ Strength Of Schedule Reliable?
However, it is important to remember that strength of schedule is an inherently unreliable metric. There are plenty of different reasons for that. Strength of schedule is calculated based on a team’s current winning percentage. When circumstances change for teams, those new circumstances are not necessarily reflected in the data. The Warriors are 10th in the West but swapped Andrew Wiggins for former Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler. The Phoenix Suns are 11th but swapped Jusuf Nurkic for an able body the fan base doesn’t actively despise.
Indeed, more can potentially be gleaned about the Rockets’ individual fortunes from consulting the Rockets’ own schedule specifically. They have 27 games left to play, and 19 of those will be against the Western Conference. Absent a rather unlikely trip to the NBA finals, the Rockets will play only three more games in the Eastern Conference this season. Overall, the Rockets will have 15 home games and 12 away.
More good news for the Rockets is that they still have two games to play against the New Orleans Pelicans and three games to play against the Utah Jazz. Those are the two worst teams in the Western Conference by record. Where teams like the Philadelphia 76ers or the now Victor Wembanyama–less San Antonio Spurs are sitting once they play Houston remains to be seen.
Crunch Time
However, the last five games of the Rockets’ season will all be against Western Conference playoff/play-in/play-in aspirant adversaries. It is worth noting, though, that one of those will be the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC has been so dominant and has built such a huge lead that they’ll likely have no reason to be strenuously competing by that point in the regular season. There’s a chance that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be experiencing a minor but rest-necessitating injury of some kind. That’s another failing of strength of schedule. By the time the season is winding down, the best teams in the league are often looking ahead to the next theatre of combat.
However, the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers will also all be among the Rockets’ season-closing opponents. Those just so happen to be the three teams currently surrounding Houston in the standings. Among those teams, there could be a similar situation to the kerfuffle at the top of the West last season. Essentially, the Rockets’ final placement in the standings could well come down to the final whistle.
The Last Word
The Rockets and their fans have enjoyed a hugely successful season so far. Franchise cornerstone Alperen Sengun made his first All-Star team. Amen Thompson looks like a true rising star as well. The early expectations of a play-in battle have been handily surpassed. With the crew hopefully back to full health, and the strength of schedule looking favorable, there’s no reason the Rockets can’t close the season strong.
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