A postseason berth shouldn’t be the be-all and end-all in deeming this as a successful season.
Hold your horses! Are we collectively too high on the 2024-25 Houston Rockets? I don’t want to be the one to rain on your parade, but it’s fair to examine the case against this being the year the Rockets return to glory.
While expectations for this team seem reasonable — competing for a play-in spot — some may find themselves with loftier aspirations, hence, securing a regular NBA Playoff spot in 2024-25. I find myself in the former group. Top six seeding is within reach for this jubilant group, but I’d be satisfied with play-in relevancy on the heels of three miserable seasons, followed by an encouraging surge in the second half of 2023-24.
But what if the team doesn’t find themselves within the top 10 seeds? Should that be considered a failure? It certainly would feel like it for an organization and fanbase that holds an abundance of optimism for the upcoming season. However, the answer to if another postseason-less season is a failure comes with plenty of nuance. Not making the playoffs for the fifth year in a row would certainly be saddening, but categorizing it as a failure heavily depends on how the team gets to that result.
The Rockets finished 41-41 last year, completely even and as middling as you can get. To get there, it took an 11-game win streak in March to elevate the season from a dud to newfound hope. Hypothetically, let’s consider that the Rockets win more games this season yet get bounced in the Play-In Tournament or even worse, finish as the 11th seed. They won more games, that can’t be considered a failure, right? For some it will be, for others it won’t, but no matter how you slice it, more than 41 wins is technically improvement.
Now a handful of deterrents could factor into the Rockets not ending their playoff drought this year, a couple of them being out of their hands. There are injuries, of course. There’s also the chance that the roster, namely the homegrown talent that will be heavily relied upon to pan out, hasn’t reached the level that is necessary to compete. Above all, the most likely reason Houston could fall short of the playoffs is that the Western Conference is just so deep. It’s going to be a bloodbath this year.
Although I’m less bullish on some of the Rockets’ more senior competitors, I still expect both Los Angeles teams and the Golden State Warriors to find themselves in the mix. Combine that with the return of the Memphis Grizzlies, whatever the San Antonio Spurs are, and a Utah Jazz team that seems to hover within contention for the first half of the season, it’s going to be a rat race towards the top.
14 teams competing for 10 spots, which will ultimately become eight, is something that everyone out West will have to reckon with. It will be imperative for not only the Rockets, but everyone else to not dig themselves into too deep of a deficit.
The aforementioned youth of the Rockets will almost certainly become a deciding factor on how large of a step this organization takes forward in 2024-25. Even though the front office has been wise to gradually add veteran pieces to supplement the youth, other than Fred VanVleet, who else can the Rockets truly rely upon to steady the ship? Dillon Brooks was a solid contributor last year, but he remains volatile. Jeff Green is frankly too tenured to keep expecting that he can fill in night in and night out. Steven Adams has big game experience, but he hasn’t played in almost two years. Who knows how much the team can count on him?
Therefore, the Rockets will be banking on a lot of guys that can’t even rent a car to get us over the hump.
With it being a contract year, it’s full-on put up or shut up time for Jalen Green. The same could be said about Alperen Sengun. Yes, the flashes of brilliance are there, but both will need to prove their games matter to winning.
Amen Thompson will need to demonstrate that he won’t always be a spacing liability. Tari Eason must show he can stay healthy. Cam Whitmore will need to show progression from year one to year two. Reed Sheppard and Jabari Smith Jr. will need to show they can be impact players as third overall picks. It’s going to need to be a full team effort.
If we want to look at a recent comparison of the Rockets trajectory, look no further than Oklahoma City. If we look at the three-year stretches for the Rockets post-James Harden and the Thunder’s post-Chris Paul blip year, they have had similar paths. Each had two consecutive low 20-win seasons followed by a vault to approximately .500 ball and Play-In flirtation. OKC actually slipped into the 10th seed in 2022-23 before swiftly getting booted, and we all know how they climbed the conference for last year’s impressive 57-win season and top seed in the West.
Houston’s hope would be to follow this path as 2024-25 would line up with OKC’s 2023-24 timeline. However, the starkest contrast between the two is that the Thunder already had an established superstar, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Therefore, it’s most likely that the Rockets find themselves gradually building off last year’s 41 wins with sights on securing the sixth seed or better, or by giving themselves the chance to fight another day in the Play-In Tournament.
That objectively is the goal, but between a deep conference, growing pains, and the rigors of the NBA, it may be wise to not let the “success” of this season hinge on if the Rockets secure a playoff spot.