Who makes the Rockets rotation for next season?
The Houston Rockets have already upgraded many needs just a few weeks into the offseason so far. While there hasn’t been any major moves from Houston, GM Rafael Stone has made small and effective moves to bolster the roster. From drafting elite three-and-D guard Reed Sheppard with the third overall pick and trading for former Atlanta Hawk first round pick AJ Griffin, the Rockets have brought in competition for the rotation next season.
Currently Houston has all 15 of their roster spots taken at the time of this writing, barring any unforeseen trades, cuts or signings, minutes will be scarce to earn. With that said, how do those 15 players configure into the 2024-25 Houston Rockets rotation under Ime Udoka? I will be putting players into four tiers: Guaranteed, Very Likely, Possible, and Highly Doubtful in terms of being in the opening day rotation. So let’s get into what the Rockets rotation could look like next season as it stands now.
Guaranteed Spot
Now, this is probably going to seem like a tad much, but I believe there are eight players who are guaranteed minutes from day one. Let’s start with the obvious here first: Alperen Sengun, who’s expected to have a big season, is the easiest decision on the team when it comes to playing time. The expected starting center come opening day, Alpi will likely be the centerpoint of Ime Udoka’s squad this upcoming season.
The other clear ones would be, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Tari Eason, Jabari Smith Jr, and Cam Whitmore. I don’t think you can argue against any of those guys getting true and valuable contributions in the rotation every game. There’s only seven players listed because, even though I said this would be based off what the roster looks like now, there’s a legitimate chance Dillon Brooks is traded by opening day. The Rockets want to make moves to win, and Dillon Brooks has the contract to help get another higher end player.
However, currently as it stands, Dillon Brooks is still a Houston Rocket, and is likely to be their opening day starting small forward. Should Brooks still be on the Rockets 15-man roster at the start of the season, there’s no doubt he’ll be a guaranteed rotational player, whether that be starting or off the bench.
Very Likely
This tier was full of tough decisions. So I made the choice to stick with my gut on this, and only choose one player for this category: Reed Sheppard. Now, I will say, this was the hardest choice I had to make out of any player on this list. Reed was the third overall pick by Houston in this years Draft, so it’s fair to assume that he’d have a guaranteed rotational spot this upcoming season. While I do believe 100 percent that Reed Sheppard will be in the rotation to start the season, as a rookie competing with experienced guards, there’s always the slim chance he doesn’t start the year with playing time. It all just depends on how Reed performs at Summer League and how guys perform at Training Camp heading into the season.
I do fully expect the third overall pick to play meaningful minutes this upcoming NBA season though, as Sheppard brings high-level perimeter shooting, efficiency and defense to the table. It’s just hard to say that Reed is guaranteed minutes out of the gate due to Houston’s stacked bench, and the fact that we are yet to see him play in an NBA game. All signs are pointing to a rotational backup SG role for the young rookie however, seemingly taking that ninth man spot for Houston.
Possible
This tier is for borderline rotational guys who aren’t quite ruled out of minutes yet, but have no play time guaranteed to them either. Guys such as AJ Griffin, Steven Adams, and Aaron Holiday fall into this tier, but not because they’re not good enough, but mainly due to there only likely being 10-11 spots in the rotation. Houston has a good issue by having so many players capable of earning minutes, which will create for some intriguing preseason competitions and tough rotation cuts.
Starting off with the most likely of the bunch to play starting from day one, Steven Adams looks to be the perfect backup center for Houston. Coming off of right knee surgery which kept him out of all last season, Adams hopes to bounce back and continue to bring that gritty, hardworking mentality to a young and hopeful Rockets squad. In what is likely to be a competition between Jock Landale and Adams for backup center, I’d like to lean more towards Adams due to the rebounding and defensive advantages held over Landale.
AJ Griffin is another guy who’s in a tricky position due to the wing talent on the Rockets. In what likely may come down to either Griffin or Aaron Holiday should Ime Udoka run an 11-man rotation, I’d give the slight edge to Holiday. Holiday last season proved to be a reliable three-and-D guard who shot efficiently and gave everything he had while on the court. The Rockets did just re-sign Holiday, who played in 78 games last year, to a two-year, $10 million deal, but the second year is just a team option, and he might just be around long enough for Sheppard to get his feet wet before becoming more valuable as potential salary ammo for a trade.
Griffin on the other hand, struggled to stay healthy and find minutes on the Atlanta Hawks while shooting the ball poorly. There just seems to be more benefits by playing an experienced guard rather than another wing for the Rockets right now, hence why I’d give the edge to Holiday. Again though, this all banks on whether or not Ime Udoka decides to run a deep, 11-man rotation to start the season, or keep it simple at a 10-man.
Highly Doubtful
This final tier explains itself. These players listed are doubtful to crack the opening day rotation. The three of Jock Landale, Jeff Green, and Jae’Sean Tate all find themselves likely outside of the regular rotation regardless of their performance during the preseason. I just don’t see a world where any of these three men find meaningful minutes on a stacked Rockets squad come opening day due to there just simply being better options available. With that said though, no discredit is meant towards any of these guys because truth be told, each of them could likely find themselves on a majority of NBA team’s rotations, just not Houston’s. Perhaps that goes to show how deep this Rockets team is right now and the potential this squad could reach this season.
Projected Rotation for 2024-25 Season
PG: Fred Vanvleet
SG: Jalen Green
SF: Dillon Brooks
PF: Jabari Smith Jr.
C: Alperen Sengun
6th: Amen Thompson
7th: Tari Eason
8th: Cam Whitmore
9th: Reed Sheppard
10th: Steven Adams
11th: Aaron Holiday
Reserves: Jock Landale, AJ Griffin, Jae’Sean Tate, Jeff Green