The All-Star chances of Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun teeter on a knife’s edge. There’s one player in particular who’s balancing right there with him. That’s Sacramento Kings star, and fellow Nikola Jokic cover-artist, Domantas Sabonis. The knife will probably come down on the chances for one of them, and the other will be wielding the blade. So who should be a 2024-25 All-Star: Sengun or Sabonis?
All-Star Cases: Sengun Vs Sabonis
The Background
Not so long ago, Sengun’s All-Star chances benefited from another team’s situation. The Kings’ season was going so badly that various degrees of regicide were on the table. For instance, Kings star point guard De’Aaron Fox was in trade rumors involving the Rockets themselves. The Kings wound up settling for the NBA’s favorite form of regicide though. They fired head coach Mike Brown.
It turned out to be the beginning of a glorious revolution. Since former Kings player Doug Christie took over the coaching staff, the Kings have gone 9-2. Fans rejoiced at the rotational return of lightning rod Keon Ellis. The beam was well and truly lit. None of this is good news for Sengun’s All-Star bid. With the Kings back in the playoff picture, the organization had no realistic shot at an All-Star spot. Now they’re back in the 8th seed. Sabonis’ All-Star case must once again be considered.
Sengun vs Sabonis in Stats
Despite Sengun’s more sophisticated scoring game, the counting stats don’t look good for him. The young Turk averages 19.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.1 assists on 53.7% true shooting. The burlier Sabonis averages 20.8 points, a league-leading 14.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists on a career-high 67.4% true shooting. That’s a clean sweep. But only on offense.
Defensively, Sengun has separated from the Lithuanian-American this season. Sabonis fans could easily point to the rest of the roster to explain Houston’s fourth-best defensive rating of 108.3 compared with Sacramento’s 13th-place 112.3. But Sabonis’ case is counting stats on offense, so it’s worth looking at the counting stats on defense.
First of all, Sengun averages 1.3 steals and 0.9 blocks compared to Sabonis’ 0.7 steals and 0.5 blocks. Of course, “stocks” are better indicators of how flashy a player is than how valuable they really are defensively. Flashiness definitely has value too. Stocks can cause the types of momentum swings that games are decided upon.
How To Measure Defense
It’s not as if many other defensive stats are much better. Take defending shots within five feet for instance, that seems like an important one for rim protectors. Sengun certainly has Sabonis beat in that regard. He’s defended 805 shots within that range to Sabonis’ 638. He’s also allowed a conversion rate of only 60.9% compared to Sabonis’ 63.6%.
Unfortunately, it’s hard to feel that the number matters when a perennial DPOY candidate like Anthony Davis gives up 65.5%. But Davis’ numbers are affected by the Lakers expecting him to bail them out of any defensive fiasco they can manufacture. Neither Sengun nor Sabonis are truly elite rim protectors like Davis, but Sengun has a definite edge.
As far as defensive stats go, Sabonis is second in the league in total defensive rebounds while Sengun is down at 14th. The possession isn’t over until you get the rebound. But Sengun plays with other strong rebounders like Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson. That goes both ways. Sabonis has more work to do as the Kings’ lone rebounding presence, but he is rewarded for that work in the box score.
The Old Mantra
If the old mantra is true, there’s only one defensive stat that matters – “defense wins games”. Even after a bad loss to the (admittedly much improved) Detroit Pistons, the Rockets remain the second seed in the Western Conference. The Memphis Grizzlies are still in the battle, only half a game behind despite recent head-to-head losses. However, the Rockets are six games ahead of the Kings. That’s a margin that should still be chunky by the time the coaches select reserves; coaches tend to value winning above all else.
Will the Coaches Have Any Ulterior Motives?
Aside from contributions to winning, there are a couple of other possible considerations for coaches. For one thing, coaches might feel a little silly about not voting for Sabonis last year. He did finish 8th in MVP voting and made third-team All-NBA. Not bad for a non-All-Star.
However, taking the potential biases of coaches into account, there’s a far juicier ulterior motive to consider. NBA coaches did not like the way the Kings fired Mike Brown. Coaches really do lose locker rooms. Teams going on runs after a change of leadership is far from uncommon. The team’s ceiling isn’t necessarily raised. The previous coach wasn’t necessarily doing a bad job (though benching Ellis was bizarre). It’s just a fact of NBA life that a little jolt at the top can boost a team for a few extra wins sometimes.
The other fact of NBA life is that the coaches are a brotherhood. Despite every one of them having gotten their current position from a firing they would definitely complain about if it happened today, (except Gregg Popovich who fired his predecessor himself), they don’t like it when teams fire coaches. Sabonis is back in All-Star consideration because of the Brown firing. Coaches might remember that.
A Dark Horse Contender
One other recently emerged wrinkle in any Sengun All-Star discussion is the play of his co-star, Jalen Green. Green’s New Year streak finally ended against the Pistons, but assuming he doesn’t completely fall off again, he might be making another tilt soon at being Houston’s best player. The timing could muddy the waters and wind up splitting the Houston vote. Sabonis might also have to worry about that with Fox. Houston fans would happily take that scenario though. A version of Green that offers reliable perimeter scoring is exactly what Houston needs to transition from young upstart to a serious noise maker.
The Last Word
Sengun and Sabonis both deserve All-Star spots. That’s the cop-out answer to all this. The practical answer is that the Rockets deserve an All-Star more than the Kings (purely by dint of a better record), and will probably get one. What people really want to argue about is which player is better. For those who value consistency, the answer is probably Sabonis; he’s just reliable. He makes the right play, doesn’t overcomplicate things, and benefits from usually being the strongest player on the court.
Sabonis has enough of the flashy passing capability and post-scoring finesse that he doesn’t feel the need to overburden himself with trying to do more. Sengun, meanwhile, is always reaching for more. That’s something you want in a young player. He has lower lows but is capable of higher highs. As he matures, the lows will become less frequent. As of now, he’s already on his way to being a 2024-25 All-Star.
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