Which group will the Rockets find themselves amongst in 2024-25?
As the figurative dust settles from a rather anticlimactic free agency, we have a much clearer view of what each team will look like on paper for the 2024-25 season. There are still a few acquisitions that can be made that may slightly alter how we perceive these teams, but we have a solid framework of what most rosters will look like.
Your Houston Rockets reside in the western conference and while I may have tempered expectations for this upcoming season, I think it’s worth pointing out that anything is possible in this Wild Wild West. First, consider that a team hasn’t repeated as Western Conference champions in six years since the Golden State Warriors five-year stint from 2015-19.
Since then we have seen a revolving door of NBA Finals participants, something that can also be said about the Eastern Conference. They too have had repeat conference finals champs, but none back-to-back since 2018.
With that said, I’ve put together a preliminary tier of where each team ranks amongst the Western Conference. It’s not necessarily a 1-15 ranking, but more so a grouping of peers based on projected regular season finishes and sustainability throughout the playoffs.
Let’s get to it!
Cream of the Crop
Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves
Prior to the most recent Finals I probably would have only put the Nuggets, Thunder and T-Wolves up here, but it’s impossible to ignore that none of those were the last team standing. Dallas proved to be a Luka and Kyrie going berserk or bust team as they got shellacked in the finals, but I like that they didn’t stay complacent this offseason. Klay Thompson may very well be a remnant of himself, but he can’t be left alone on the court and he will serve as a pressure relief valve for the reigning West champs.
Denver has lost yet another contributor from their title team, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, but you can’t ever count them out as long as Nikola Jokic is there. Meanwhile, I’m not sure how last year’s one seed, OKC, managed to make significant upgrades this offseason without giving up any first round picks. I project them to secure homecourt advantage once again.
Minnesota has also earned the respect of being deemed cream of the crop despite a lackluster performance in the WCF. Their physical brand of basketball is built for the regular season and can flourish in the playoffs if their offense can manage to keep up with their defense.
Plenty of Upside
Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings
Well, well, well…look who found themselves in the second tier. It’s none other than your Rockets. This is a bit loftier than I expected placing them, but given the teams in the next tier, the guys returning from injury, and another year under this nucleus’ belt, I don’t think it’s too far of a stretch.
The Grizzlies should also make a return to the upper half of the west as long as Ja Morant is available. They also dealt with injury misfortune and have had a wacky couple of years in general, but I still think they’re a good team overall.
I’m most high on the Pelicans amongst this group, but that solely depends on if Zion Williamson can finally play an official playoff game. The addition of Dejounte Murray gives them a bonafide point guard and their ceiling could rise depending on what they get back in a potential Brandon Ingram trade.
Last but not least, it’s Sactown, USA. Like the other teams in this group, the injury bug got the best of the Kings. Among the teams listed so far, I think they are the most likely to make a significant move this late into free agency. Whether that help comes in the form of Lauri Markkanen or DeMar DeRozan, I expect them to bounce back this year.
Maybe Four Years Ago
Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns
Should this be called the “back in my day” group instead? Tiering this group below the previous group doesn’t mean that I think they will miss the postseason altogether, in fact it’s highly unlikely, but I do think we are looking at play-in teams at this point.
I haven’t seen a team bleed away assets quite like the Warriors have in recent years, but I refuse to count them out as long as Stephen Curry is still kickin’. They could find themselves taking a step forward if they can pull off a swap for Markkanen, but that still may not be enough when all is said and done.
Both LA teams seem destined for mediocrity as their hopes hinge on aging stars. Between the two, I’m higher on the Lakers given their recent and historical records, but also because Kawhi Leonard can’t seem to make it through one playoff series health wise.
About the Suns…I’ve never been more convinced in a team not being built for the long haul. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are capable of dragging them to the playoffs, but nothing more than that with this collection.
High Variabilty
This is solely based on how quickly the organization is willing to accelerate Victor Wemanyama’s acension. Given how mind-boggling good he is, they may not have a choice. I’m a big fan of the Stephon Castle pick and the Chris Paul pickup. They haven’t made any other moves of significance so far, but they too find themselves in the Markkanen talks.
If they can add him to the Wemby, Castle and Devin Vassell core, watch out. With Pop at the helm, they’d vault to my Plenty of Upside group.
Cooper Flagg Sweepstakes
Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz
I like a lot of the pieces on Portland, I just don’t see there being enough minutes for all of them to coexist and develop. This team seems content with tanking another year while they lean into an identity. They also don’t really have a choice given the buffet of talent in the West.
The Jazz have shown that they can remain competitive over the past two years under Will Hardy, but I think the talent gap has increased too much in that time, and it’s why I think they’re more open to taking calls on Markkanen and Walker Kessler. If they are moved this Summer, expect a tanking of epic proportions for Flagg.
Agree or disagree? Let us know in the comments below!