Would trading an all-pro make the Texans better?
We are in the dog days of winter. It’s cold outside. Spring training has just begun in baseball, so pitchers and catchers are just working. The NBA is on the last throws of its worthless all-star break. The NFL calendar hasn’t flipped yet, so here we are. There is literally nothing good to talk about. It is in these moments where we can run through some fascinating thought experiments.
So, here is a simple question: should the Texans trade Laremy Tunsil? The answer would seem to be simple. The Texans offensive line sucked last year and he was the only all-pro on the line. What in heck would they be smoking if they traded the best lineman on a line that sucked so horribly? We should start with some obvious points. The first obvious point is that the Pro Bowl is an elected position. You are not necessarily elite just by virtue of being in the Pro Bowl.
According to PFF, 81 players qualified with enough plays to be considered for their tackle ratings. Tunsil was the 19th ranked tackle according to them overall with a 78.1 overall grade. That’s in the top 25 percent, so he is legitimately good, but is he a legit elite offensive tackle? Well, he had the third highest pass protection grade with an 89.1 grade. So, he is an elite pass blocking tackle. His run grade was a more pedestrian 74.0 which placed him 21st amongst regular tackles.
So, the first problem is that he is being paid top five tackle money when he isn’t performing like a top five tackle overall. So, could those resources be put to better use? Well, let’s start with the obvious question: what would the offensive line alignment look like without him? Obviously, Tytus Howard would likely move to left tackle (39th out of 81) and Blake Fisher (79th out of 81) would move to right tackle. That’s not ideal on the right hand side, but maybe new coaching unlocks something and players always grow most between year one and year two.
The second question is what might the Texans get for Tunsil. They traded two first and a third to get him. That seems nuts to consider, but maybe they could get a second rounder for him. Obviously, a second rounder should probably be a starting quality player if you trust your scouting department.
The third consideration is what it does to your salary cap. This is where things get dicey. Since you extended him before last season, there will be quite a bit of dead money that gets transferred to the cap. According to overthecap.com, you would take on 15 million in dead cap if you traded him now. It would save you 13.85 million on the salary cap this year. based on their current cap situation, they are estimated to have as much as 22 million available if the cap is raised to 281 million as some are expecting. That 13.85 million would make that nearly 36 million.
If you wait until after June 1st to trade him (officially) then the cap hit drops to 7.5 million and the cap savings becomes 21.3 million. Obviously, there are a ton of moving parts here. Would a team be more apt to give you a better 2026 draft pick then a 2025 selection? I’m not sure who is a left tackle away from contending, but would they surrender a 2026 first? I would think that securing that second rounder would be easier and maybe they would throw in a late pick as well.
This becomes a value question (thus the value of things). When you trade a player like Tunsil you are not just talking about the draft pick compensation coming back. You are also talking about what the money (21.3 million if you waited) would also fetch you. So, it becomes Laremy Tunsil for a second rounder AND whatever players you could get for 21.3 million. You could theoretically sign two solid interior linemen for that.
However, the biggest reason to do it is because it sends a message. Tunsil is a mercenary and always has been. When he finally retires, he will go down as one of the best tackles in the business, but it would be hard to say he is beloved. He isn’t a leader verbally or by example. He is a guy that takes practices off constantly and isn’t exactly the picture of physicality and dedication.
There are spots in the NFL for guys that do their jobs and do it well. They show up when they are supposed to and leave when practice or the games are done. They do no more and no less. That doesn’t appear to be the culture that DeMeco Ryans wants. Trading Tunsil would be trading the highest paid Texan to Overthecap.com. That absolutely would send a signal to everyone else about what they want in the locker room and on the field.
As a numbers guy, I find the whole addition by subtraction gamut hard to stomach, but as a former coach I cannot deny that the phenomenon exists. Something happens when everyone on the team is pulling in the same direction. It isn’t to say that anyone pulling in a different direction is necessarily wrong or a bad person. They are just pulling in a different direction. Tunsil is pulling his way and the Texans are pulling their way. It’s high time they had five guys on the line and eleven guys on offense pulling in the same direction.