What will each team try to do to the other on Sunday?
Sometimes things seem way too simple for our own good. The Houston Texans are coming in with a 2-1 record and clearly appear to be the class of the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming in 0-3 and have looked like the worst team in the AFC South. That means Sunday’s game will be easy to predict right? I have lived on this Earth long enough to know these are the games I like the least. The obvious answer is never all that obvious.
In this feature we usually look at the top five players on each team according to PFF. We usually only look at players with a score of 70 or higher and that hasn’t been a problem until this week. Players with scores between 70 and 80 are usually solid starters. Players with scores between 80 and 90 are Pro Bowl type performers and players above 90 are among the very best at their position. I usually only pick healthy players for the list, but I had to cheat a little this time.
Jaguars Top Five
DE Josh Allen— 89.7
LB Foyesade Oluokun— 81.1 (injured)
CB Ronald Darby— 73.4
C Mitch Morse— 71.6
LB Devin Lloyd— 70.2
Normally we wouldn’t include Okuokun, but we are struggling to find five solid starters for the Jaguars. That’s a remarkable thing to say for an organization that has had numerous high draft picks and numerous prominent free agent signings. Something is going wrong in Jacksonville. Maybe water will find its level, but so far things have looked ugly.
Texans Top Five
WR Nico Collins— 90.1
DE Danielle Hunter— 75.8
CB Kamari Lassiter— 75.2
QB C.J. Stroud— 72.2
DE Will Anderson— 71.7
Not only are four of the five guys on this list Houston draftees, but three of the five were taken in the last two drafts. This is what perennially strong teams do. They find contributors in every draft and those contributors fill in gaps and replace expensive veterans that leave for free agency. Hunter is the lone addition and he has lived up to the advanced billing so far.
What will the Jaguars offense try to do?
When you begin to look at enough numbers, they begin to contradict themselves. The rushing totals against the Texans are promising numbers like they were last year. DeMeco Ryans clearly prioritizes stopping the run on defense. However, when you look at the grades for the defensive tackles you see they are all below 50 PFF. That means shoring up the middle with the linebackers and at least one safety. Look for the Jags to try to get a run game going so they can force the Texans to add a defender to the box. Travis Etienne is talented enough to do it, but we haven’t seen it yet. Then, the passing lanes will open for a deep wide receiver core.
What will the Jaguars defense try to do?
The best thing you can do to the Texans is make them one dimensional. The Bears and Vikings succeeded by shutting down the Texans running game and forcing them to be pass happy. From there, pass rushers were able to hurry Stroud and force him to make quicker decisions. As we saw on Sunday, Stroud usually makes good ones under duress, but even he is not immune to the occasional blunder. With Tank Dell likely out, it will be easier to contain those receivers on the back end if the Texans are forced to give up on the running game.
What will the Texans offense try to do?
Obviously, the flip side of this is to get a running game from someone or somewhere. Dameon Pierce may be back for Sunday’s game and that gives the Texans an old fashioned thunder and lightening attack with Pierce and Cam Akers. With Dell likely out, look for someone from the group of Robert Woods, Xavier Hutchinson, or John Metchie to step up and get some targets in his absence. The Jags can’t cover everyone, so one of those will find themselves open and they need to take advantage of those opportunities.
What will the Texans defense try to do?
PFF is not the end all be all of human existence, but it does provide some insights into what might happen on Sunday. The Jaguars two worst offensive linemen are their tackles. The Texans best defensive linemen are their defensive ends. This doesn’t bode well for the Jaguars. If the Texans can make the Jaguars one dimensional it could be a very long day for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars.