An eulogy for a fan favorite?
DeMeco Ryans’ job is infinitely harder than anything David Culley or Lovie Smith had to deal with. For one, his season actually comes with expectations. When you are picked to finish dead last there is no pressure. What’s the worst that can happen? For Ryans, there is a definite downside. If the Houston Texans somehow miss the playoffs it will be the most disappointing season since 2020 and maybe even more so.
Those are tomorrow concerns though. The hardest part of the job right now is picking a 53-man roster and filling out your practice squad with quality prospects. Who are the players that will be able to provide something for your roster that others do not? Who has flexibility? Maybe even more importantly towards the bottom is who you can’t afford to expose to the waiver wire.
Smith and Culley didn’t have enough good football players to fill out a 53-man roster. They would scour the other 31 teams for anyone that was breathing and could walk and chew gum at the same time. The Texans probably have upwards of 60 or 65 guys that could conceivably make a 53-man roster somewhere. Those final cuts are always the hardest ones from both a human and strategic point of view.
This is nowhere more present than the running back room. I would venture to say that there are six backs in that room that will be playing on Sundays somewhere. Only four will be playing in Houston. So, which of the six do you keep and are there any that you can slip through to your practice squad?
Actual Game Performance
There are three considerations any coach has to make on any level. Unfortunately, as fans we only see one of those on a regular basis. The first consideration is the one that everyone sees. Who produces and who doesn’t produce? We can certainly wax poetic, make excuses, and hem and haw, but at the end of the day the numbers are the numbers.
In this regard, if we separate Joe Mixon from the conversation we see three openings and five significant running back candidates. Jawhar Jordan, British Brooks, and Cam Akers have all performed well in the three preseason games. That performance has to matter. How much it matters is anyone’s best guess. That would require us get in the head of Ryans to see how he breaks down the three various factors.
As a stat guy I tend towards the dispassionate. In more than twenty years of football, the Texans have led the league in avoiding arrests. they have zero Super Bowls. Heck, they have zero conference title game appearances. At a certain point you want guys that can make plays. Those three guys have made plays this offseason while Dare Ogunbowale and Dameon Pierce haven’t.
Practice Performance
I was a high school volleyball coach, but the concept is pretty much the same. You spend upwards of ten hours a week practicing and maybe two hours playing matches. So, what you see in practice has to matter if for no other reason than the fact that it is a larger sample size. Certainly, some media members have watched every practice, but none of us at Battle Red Blog have been able to fit that into our daily schedule.
So, we are left to listen to those other media reports and listen to the comments from the coaches. Ryans himself has praised Pierce for his performance and those that cover the team more closely have sent positive reports as well. Of course, they have said positive things about the other backs as well.
There is a certain amount of gamesmanship afoot. If Ryans talks up a guy then another team may be willing to give draft compensation for that guy after tomorrow’s game. Deal two or three of those guys (roster wide) and you can begin the process of stockpiling picks for the 2025 draft.
However, we should note that preseason games aren’t necessarily a great lab for accurately rating players. Sometimes a guy is playing with the twos and threes and gets worse blocking as a result. Sometimes he is playing against the twos or threes and looks better than normal. Practice time allows for coaches to see players in every possible situation to give them a better idea of what they are dealing with.
Football Character
Football character is a little different than regular character. At the end of the day we all want guys we can root for. That hasn’t changed and never will change. Mixon obviously comes in with some significant questions/black marks there, but all of the other backs check all of these boxes are far as we know. Admittedly, it might seem like a low bar.
Football character simply involves your ability and willingness to work on your craft. It also involves your ability to work and play well with others. For instance, when you see how the team responds to John Metchie you know this is not a minor consideration. As every working person knows, when you work with people you get along with, productivity usually goes up.
I usually consider this one to be a tiebreaker, but others put more stock into this. Like I said above, eventually you have to produce something. Willingness to grow goes a long way and someone that is close will get the benefit of the doubt if we think he will improve. Unfortunately, we as fans don’t see this, so we will have to trust Ryans to make the right call here.
Final Predictions/Analysis
We will find out a lot based on Saturday’s game, but my mind has been made up. I know who the best four backs are. Unfortunately, things rarely ever work out that way for a variety of reasons. For one, special teams contributions have to be a consideration. For another, the ability to use your practice squad for extra depth also comes into play. At least one back will be stashed on the practice squad in all likelihood.
The keys will be what happens to Brooks and Jordan. I personally would keep both of them on the active roster, but that is just me. I don’t want to risk exposing them to the waiver wire. Brooks has some flexibility as a fullback while Jordan has shown versatility as a receiver out of the backfield.
Ogunbowale’s ability to play special teams will come into play on that decision. I just don’t see a place for Pierce on this football team. I’m hopeful they can get a late round pick for him, but he might be a guy that slips through until they have to waive him. He checks all the character boxes and they are saying good things about him in practice, but eventually you have to produce something. It’s the nature of the business.