How do opposing quarterbacks fare against the Texans?
There is no discussion point as divisive and ongoing as the discussions of quarterbacks in the national media. Who is the best quarterback? Which quarterbacks are elite? Can we rank order the quarterbacks? These topics dominate the airways on television and the radio dial.
So, inevitably that ends up impacting the Texans in some way. C.J. Stroud was an elite quarterback coming into the season and apparently isn’t one anymore. Yet, this is a different topic for a different day. Instead, we are going to look at the Texans defense. Few would disagree that the unit gives the Texans the best chance to win on Saturday, but few outside of Houston know how good they are.
The common narrative following the wild card game on Saturday is that Justin Herbert is a fraud. He is masquerading as an elite quarterback and obviously isn’t one since he crapped the bed. I suppose that can be true as more than one thing can be true at the same time. However, that narrative avoids one inconvenient truth. The Texans have done that to quite a few starting quarterbacks this season.
The quarterbacks with stars by their names had their worst game of the season against the Texans. They include three number one overall picks and two other first round picks. One of them is one of the frontrunners for the MVP award. If an 80 rating is the line of demarcation between an average and bad quarterback then we say that eight of the 18 quarterbacks had poor performances. By comparison, six quarterbacks had 100 or higher. So you are more likely to have a very bad day than a great day.
If we dive into the numbers above we can see a 57.5 completion percentage collectively. That was the lowest completion percentage against by a considerable margin. Teams averaged 203.9 yards per game from their starting quarterbacks, It is true that Trevor Lawrence was knocked out of a game and Will Levis gave way to Mason Rudolph in week 18, but most teams can say the same.
When we start including playoff games we start seeing numbers get skewed, so per game and percentage metrics are usually best. Quarterbacks had 6.8 yards per attempt which would fall below the league average. While quarterbacks had a very healthy 5.5 percent of their passes turn into touchdowns, they also saw a league high 4.3 percent of their passes become interceptions.
When five quarterbacks have their worst day of the season and three more have what most people would call bad days, it becomes difficult to attribute it to luck. There is something else going on. The Texans are good at defending the pass, but it becomes important to delve into why.
I’m sure most people on the outside looking in will point to the pass rush. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are household names and both had double digit sack seasons. We could have predicted that coming in and that helped lead the Texans to a franchise best 49 sacks. However, that wasn’t the most in the NFL. The Denver Broncos had an outrageous 63 sacks on the season.
I’m sure others will point to the secondary. Derek Stingley is a first team All-Pro and we saw why on Saturday. In addition to Stingley, Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter added multiple interceptions. However, the Texans were not the best team in that category either. The Minnesota Vikings had 24 interceptions to the Texans 19 regular season picks.
The Vikings tied the Texans with 49 sacks, so if we dove into their numbers I am sure we would see something similar. Oddly enough, people are singing Brian Flores’ praises, but few seem to mention Ryans as anything more than a good, young head coach. Few are mentioning that he might be one of the best defensive schemers in the business.
Sure enough, the Texans ranked fourth in passer rating allowed and that includes the backup performances like that of Mac Jones when he was coming from behind. The Vikings were second, but the margin isn’t that stark. The Detroit Lions (with head coaching candidate Aaron Glenn) led the league with an 82.0 rating against.
In the regular season, the Texans were second in interception percentage to the Vikings. They were tied for fifth in yards per attempt, and they were number one by over two percentage points in completion percentage against. The Vikings and Lions should be in the conversation for best pass defense when considering all of these numbers, but there probably isn’t another team in that conversation.
Justin Herbert had the lowest quarterback rating of any of the quarterbacks in the wild card round. So, if one were inclined to consider those three teams as close then you might throw the Texans over the top based on their performance. In other words, maybe just maybe it wasn’t about Justin Herbert choking. Maybe it was about the Texans having a really good pass defense.