It’s time to roll the dice on Nick Caley.
Chip Kelly going to the Las Vegas Raiders took the collective wind out of the sails of a lot of Houston Texans fans. However, there is a few things to understand about that move before we criticize the Texans for their selection. Number one, while Kelly has had a ton of success at the college level. he has had mixed results at the NFL level. Many of us were willing to overlook that, but maybe Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans were not.
More importantly, Kelly is now the highest paid offensive coordinator in the NFL. Good for him, but that would have caused any number of issues inside the building. If he had signed the same deal in Houston he would be earning more money than Ryans. There is just no universe where that could have happened, so you either give him less or Ryans more. That’s understandably complicated.
Before I introduce Nick Caley, I should mention our dilemma. When you wait to make moves you allow yourself to interview more candidates, but you also see more candidates go off the board. So, the list of successful NFL play-callers is short. It may in fact be non-existent at this point. That leaves you two groups of people. There are people that have never called plays before and people that have done it unsuccessfully.
Bobby Slowik was in the first group and we know how that worked out. I can forgive fans out there for wanting someone from the second group. That means either a college play caller or someone like Doug Pederson. You’ll forgive me if I didn’t leap for joy at either possibility.
I will simply outline what the Texans were looking for. If you look at the Texans from the past several seasons there are two things that punctuate the period on the offensive side of the ball. First, even with Joe Mixon the running game was inconsistent at best. Without Mixon it became decidedly below average. Second, Texans quarterbacks have been under constant duress for the past half decade at least.
That points to one thing: the offensive line has underperformed. Yet, this team has spent more money on the offensive line than any unit on the field. So, either they have identified the wrong guys or they are not using the talent appropriately. We have crunched the numbers before and it isn’t pretty. Whether you are talking run blocking or pass blocking, both have one thing in common: an overabundance of look-out blocking.
Obviously a good offensive coordinator with a background around shaping an offensive line could help here. What are the things these linemen are able to do well? How can we simplify what they are doing to avoid blown assignments? How does that filter through to the rest of the offense? What route tree can we use to get the ball out of C.J. Stroud’s hands within three and a half seconds? What style of back will best pair with what the offensive line can do well? Mixon is firmly in place, but what about his backup? Clearly Dameon Pierce seemed to have trouble gelling with the offense and blocking scheme. Either the scheme should change or he should be moved.
That points to someone with an offensive line background. They are hoping that person is Nick Caley. Yes, he did not call plays and that is why he would want to leave Los Angeles in the first place. Like Slowik, he was involved in the passing game plan. The difference is that he is coming from the Sean McVay coaching tree and not the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. While Shanahan himself has been very successful, it could be argued that the McVay coaching tree has had more success. Since 2017, five different head coaches have come from that tree and a number of other coordinators have as well. Some coaches are good at coaching players and being leaders of men. Some coaches are good at developing coaching talent. As one of the masthead quipped privately, the list of Mike Tomlin assistants in higher positions in the league is practically non-existent. Obviously, McVay not only gets a lot out of his players, but he also works to prepare coaches for more responsibility.
When you get an offensive coordinator that hasn’t called plays you are playing a guessing game, but you need to start with looking at the environment they are coming from. What system did his team run? How successful were they doing it? Of course, we can’t know for sure if he would be successful being the main boss, but I feel like the odds are better if he is actually coming from a successful team.
2024: 15th total yards, 10th passing yards, 10th net yards/attempt, 24th rushing yards, sixth fewest sacks, fourth fewest turnovers
Caley could be excused from the running game stats since he was technically the tight ends coach and the passing game coordinator. So, let’s focus on those numbers. The Rams were in the top ten in passing yards, net yards per attempt, and fewest sacks. Those are three numbers that should immediately jump off the page for any Texans fan. The fact that the Rams were also in the top five in fewest turnovers means there is a whole lot to like about this hire.
Naturally, the question for any coach that coaches under a wunderkind is how much of a say they have in the offense. We don’t know that for certain. What we do know is that other coaches have come from the McVay system with similar credentials and experienced success.
The work is not yet done. At the very least, the Texans will need an offensive line coach and possibly a quarterbacks coach as well. With Caley in place before the Super Bowl, C.J. Stroud has plenty of time to learn a new offense. Yet, it will mainly be new terminology as both McVay and Shanahan come from a west coast style of offense. Hopefully the days of look-out blocks and bad wide receiver screens are over.