Three Ways C.J. Stroud Will Light Up the Cowboys’ Defense

C.J. Stroud has been dormant too long…tonight, he makes his return.

Ten weeks into the 2024 NFL season, and the Houston Texans are war-torn, yet in control of their destiny in the AFC. Losses like those against the New York Jets and Detroit Lions will put a plucky young team like the Texans in the doldrums, but next up is one of their most anticipated games of the entire season: playing the Dallas Cowboys, in Dallas. Now their third prime time game in a row and coming hot off the announcement that Beyoncé will be performing in the Christmas Day halftime show where Houston will host the Baltimore Ravens (woof!), the Texans will be aiming to avenge themselves tonight by laying the smack down on a very vulnerable and very injured Dallas Cowboys roster.

Under normal circumstances, this would be seen as a highly competitive matchup between two playoff teams, both the defending champion of their respective divisions. But, considering Houston’s recent struggles and the Cowboys’ litany of injuries – including season-ending surgery to starting quarterback Dak Prescott – this game might end up being exactly what the Texans need to get back on track. In fact, it could even get a little ugly…

Ugly is what Houston needs right now, though. Recovering from that loss to the Detroit Lions last week will require a masterclass on offense so complete that Cowboys’ fans will be calling for Jerry Jones’ resignation letter before the game is over. In that second-half collapse against the Lions, Houston gained just 82 total yards! That’s such a shocking statistic that this team will be determined to prove themselves against the Cowboys, which could be a truly beautiful sight. We all want it, all of Texas wants it, all of the the country wants to see the young Texans dethrone the Cowboys on the national stage, and they’re ready for it, BUT: this blowout can only be instigated to one specific player, one who has failed to live up to the moment in recent weeks: C.J. Stroud.

There have been many surprises to this 2024 Houston Texans campaign, but one of the most shocking to me personally was C.J. Stroud’s regression. Now a little over halfway through the season, Stroud has already thrown more interceptions than he did all of last year, is averaging over 30 fewer yards per game, a 2.29% higher sack rate, a lower completion percentage, and a passer rather 20 points lower than last year. Against the Packers, Jets, and Lions, Stroud was given chance after chance to bring his team back into the competition, and he failed to deliver.

BUT: This is the Dallas Cowboys’ defense, currently 31st in points allowed. They aren’t nearly the defenses Stroud has been facing the past month, giving him much needed breathing room as the latter half of the season begins. How should he take advantage of this game? How will he pick apart the Cowboys and resume his residency in the “elite” circle of quarterbacks? Well, how I see it is there will be three main ingredients to Stroud’s big game tonight, and they will be:

1. Stroud will target Nico Collins early and often.

After a long absence, C.J. Stroud’s best buddy, Nico Collins, is finally off the injury report and making his return against the Cowboys. Collins left the league in Week 5 as its leading receiver and now returns at time when his quarterback needs him most. He’s been Stroud’s favorite target both seasons he’s been in the NFL, and now that fellow receiver Stefon Diggs is done for the season, Collins’ return will be even more important to Stroud. That alone should guarantee Collins will have a triumphant return to the starting lineup.

Although, another reason I believe Nico Collins will have a big game ties into the passing charts of quarterbacks who beat the Dallas Cowboys earlier this year: Jared Goff from the Detroit Lions and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers.

Taking a quick glance at both NFL Next Gen Stats charts when they faced the Cowboys, it becomes apparent that both Purdy and Goff had significant success targeting the middle of the field and down the right sideline. Now, compare those to Nico Collins receiving chart from his best game of the season thus far in Week 4 against the Jacksonville Jaguars:

Hmmmm….it looks like Collins is making his biggest plays in the same spaces of the field Purdy and Goff were finding the most success! These charts have to be finding the Texans’ coaches tickled pink with excitement coming into this game tonight. What’s more is the Cowboys will still be missing DaRon Bland, their #2 cornerback. So, if it can’t be Nico Collins carving up the Cowboys backfield, it almost certainly will be someone else.

2. The POWER of the dump off pass.

If you reed David Howman’s, “Dallas Cowboys scouting report: Breaking down the Texans offensive scheme” on Blogging with the Boys, you’ll know that the Cowboys have had trouble against Shanahan style offenses this year. They also have been one of the most porous run defenses in the league up to this point, both great news to Texans running back Joe Mixon. What isn’t great news for Mixon nor Stroud, however, is the presence of Dallas Cowboys defensive end Micah Parsons. Regardless of what state the Texans are in, Parsons is going to wreaking havoc in the backfield. So, how should Stroud and Mixon get around this? Well, take another look at those passing charts of Purdy’s, and then take a look at his top four targets for that game:

1. TE George Kittle – 7 Tgts, 6 Recs, 128 Yds, 1 TD
2. WR Deebo Samuel – 7 Tgts, 4 Recs, 71 Yds
3. WR Ricky Pearsal – 4 Tgts, 4 Recs, 38 Yds
4. RB Isaac Guerendo – 4 Tgts, 3 Recs, 17 Yds

Of Brock Purdy’s four top targets, three of them were players constantly found near the line of scrimmage. When Purdy was pressured, he was quick to get the ball out of his hands and into the hand of one of these four players, or he would be obliged to become a runner himself, which actually worked to the tune of 8 carries for 56 yards and a touchdown. Now, Purdy didn’t have to worry about Micah Parsons in that game, but the bottom line stays the same: whenever Stroud gets pressured, he can evade disaster by quickly dumping the ball off to his running back, tight end, or slot wide receiver. To that end, I believe this game will be decided by Texan’s ability to get the ball away from or around the body of Micah Parsons, and by the Dallas Cowboys’ ability to stop the dump-off passes.

3. Get a rhythm going to Tank Dell, even if it means targeting him downfield.

So, considering the likelihood that the Texans’ offense will likely revolve around Joe Mixon and Nico Collins tonight, that leaves one X-factor that can ultimately end up making the difference if things go awry: Tank Dell. Another crucial injury for the Cowboys is starting slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis, who has now been declared out against the, right where Tank Dell will spend much of his time. Similar to how Deebo Samuel is a safety valve for the 49ers offense, I expect Dell to be the same for the Texans in this game. As long as Stroud is able to avoid the wrath of Micah Parsons, both he and Collins should receive plenty or targets.

Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images

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And there you have it! Despite my belief that it’ll be big game for Stroud, I also expect Houston to hand the ball off the Mixon a lot tonight, considering the Cowboys’ struggles in defending the run. But, I sense an unease from the passing offense, and need to show the greater public that Stroud still is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL. I sense a Texans team that isn’t satisfied with a grinding victory, and is hungry for a few more touchdowns. I have a feeling that a certain quarterback is going to get some serious big-play opportunities thanks to the return of his favorite receiver, and he’s going to take advantage of every single one. I’ll see you in a couple hours when we’re celebrating Nico Collins as the second coming of Davante Adams!

Go Texans!!!