How difficult is each division based on the Vegas numbers?
Vegas Insider is just one source for futures betting in the NFL. We could break all of these down but I think we would find that everything is fairly similar. These wise guys have the math down pretty good. We have to remember one key thing about the gamblers and those setting the lines. Their goal is not to predict the future. Their goal is get an even amount of money on either side of a bet,
So, we can look at the Houston Texans 2024 chances a few different ways. We can look at their projected number of wins and compare that with the other teams in the AFC overall and the AFC South. That part is pretty easy. Vegas Insider has the Texans pegged for 9.5 wins which would place them on top of the AFC South and in a tie for fifth in the AFC at large.
This is the shortest article in history right? Well, not so fast. We also should look at the overall strength of the divisions and we can also go opponent by opponent to see who Vegas thinks will win. We will start by comparing each of the divisions and the total number of wins they are projecting for the four teams in those divisions.
AFC South: 33.0 Wins
My crack math skills tell me that this puts the entire division around the .500 mark. Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts come in at 8.5 wins which puts them squarely at .500. The Tennessee Titans comes in at 6.5 so no one in the division is truly awful and yet no one in the division is dominant either. Let’s see how that compares with the rest of the conference.
AFC North: 39.0 Wins
The Pittsburgh Steelers are the worst team in the division according to this site and they come in at 8.5 wins. I suppose you literally could have every team in the playoffs but we know that isn’t likely to happen. So, one of these teams is underachieving, but this gives you an idea of why this division is considered the strongest in the NFL.
AFC East: 34.0 Wins
Surprisingly, they seem to think the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, and Buffalo Bills will all win a similar number of games. The New England Patriots are the lowest rated team in the entire NFL with 4.5 wins. Still, you can get an idea of the relative strength of a division based on the number of wins projected in the division.
AFC West: 32.0 Wins
You have the Kansas City Chiefs and then you have three teams kind of feeling their way around this season. The Los Angeles Chargers have a quarterback but not much else after the salary cap crunch got them. The Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are fumbling through without an established quarterback. Maybe they find someone.
While the Texans obviously aren’t playing in the NFC, we could look at those divisions as well to get an idea of the relative strength of the AFC South. Here, we see that it is the second weakest division in the AFC. That being said, the AFC usually rates as stronger than the NFC.
NFC North: 36.0 Wins
It’s not the AFC North, but this division has three teams that could easily win the division. I can’t see the Minnesota Vikings getting there with J.J. McCarthy or Sam Darnold, but goodness knows I’ve been wrong before. The Detroit Lions would be the betting favorites, but the Green Bay Packers came on at the end and Caleb Williams has a good offense around him.
NFC East: 34.0 Wins
The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys are both projected with the same number of wins, so this race could be pretty good. The New York Giants (who somehow keep getting prime time games) are set to struggle along with the Washington Commanders. The Commanders have a new young quarterback, so their future is probably the most volatile.
NFC West: 34.0 Wins
It looks as strong as the NFC East, but this one is top heavy. The San Francisco 49ers are tied with the highest projected win total at 11.5 wins. The Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks could conceivably make some noise if things break right for them, but this feels like a one team race again for the divisional championship.
NFC South: 30.0 Wins
Ouch. This division is the weakest division in the league by a long shot. As my grandfather used to say, “they are so far down in the cellar that they have to pipe light down to them.” Vegas seems to think that the Falcons will run away with this thing and given their moves at quarterback I can’t necessarily disagree.
Next time we can take a look at the Texans schedule game by game to get an idea of who will be favored in each game and how those mathematicians arrive at that sort of thing. Suffice it to say, only two divisions in the entire NFL fall below the AFC South. So, while we might be telling ourselves that things could be interesting in the division, the Vegas oddsmakers don’t seem to agree.