What does a breakout season look like for him?
We profiled Jalen Pitre and Kenyon Green first in this series. Those are two players that may not be absolutely integral to the Houston Texans’ plans to win the AFC South, but they feel like the kind of players that have to do well if the Texans have aspirations beyond that. John Metchie doesn’t fit into any of those categories. He is what people in Louisiana would lovingly call lagniappe.
In the Green piece, I talked about the notion of sunken costs. It is an absolute rule in economics and it fits here pretty well. You spent a second round pick on Metchie and even traded up to get that pick. So, I’m sure organizationally there is some pressure to see that pick pan out in some way.
Yet, the Metchie story comes with a whole lot of context on the back end. He tore his ACL in the SEC Championship game at the end of his college career. Then, before his career could even get started he was diagnosed with cancer. The ACL injury is normal in terms of what we might expect from athletes. However, there are no guarantees that anyone will rebound exactly like they did before.
A good but not elite athlete might go from running a 4.5 or 4.6 forty to running a 4.6 or 4.7. That might not seem like much, but that one step might be the difference between getting separation and not. That is particularly true when you are talking about the difference between separation from corners in the SEC and separation from corners in the NFL.
Then you add on the cancer diagnosis on top of that. I have not torn an ACL or gone through cancer. I wouldn’t have the foggiest clue what it does to the human body from personal experience. What I do know is not pretty. People that go through cancer treatment are ultimately changed by it. The lucky ones are really no worse for the wear, but their bodies have changed some. The unlucky ones are overwhelmed and lucky to get by day by day.
I don’t know where Metchie stands in this continuum. I can assume he is towards the former because he is still able to play football. Still, we can have no idea how much it has taken out of him and I can imagine he may not even know for sure. Life is not a choose your own adventure story where you can go back in the book and see what would have happened without the cancer.
The other fact is that there are at least four wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart. That doesn’t even include Robert Woods who most of us assumed would be cut by now for cap purposes. It doesn’t include Xavier Hutchinson who may also compete for a spot. It doesn’t even assume Steven Sims who could make the squad as a return specialist.
Given all of these parameters, I am not even sure what a John Metchie breakout season might look like. Moreover, if he doesn’t do it then someone else like Noah Brown or Hutchinson likely will do it. So, in terms of the Texans I’m not sure that Metchie specifically will propel the Texans to more heights than what anyone else in that receiving corps necessarily would.
This goes back to the whole concept of sunken costs. You spent a second round pick on Metchie, so it would make Nick Caserio feel a lot better if Metchie did something to justify the pick. I mention Caserio specifically because DeMeco Ryans wasn’t here when he was picked. He has no responsibility and doesn’t care whether it is Metchie that gives him that production or someone else.
I’m sure he cares for Metchie the human being and I’m sure he is invested in Metchie becoming successful just like many of us are rooting for him to be. Still, this one is ultimately not on him or even Caserio. This one belongs to cancer. Cancer effectively might rob another player of a potentially promising career. We can only hope that this isn’t the case.
So, what does success look like for Metchie? Woods and Brown were third and fourth on the team in receptions a year ago with 40 and 33. So, it feels like the fourth receiver on this squad should wind up around there again this season. Success for Metchie would be to basically become one of those two guys. If Metchie were to get between 35 and 40 catches as the first wide receiver off the bench then he would give this team much needed depth and at least partially justify that second round selection.
Again, someone is getting those catches in all likelihood. From a pure overall team perspective it doesn’t particularly matter who does it. I just know that many of us would feel better about life in general if it were John Metchie. It may not be the kind of performance that leads the Texans to their first AFC Championship game, but there are things in life more important than playoff games.