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Offseason In Review: Houston Texans

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Although more stunning turnarounds have occurred, the Texans’ 2023 ascent was particularly notable because of their roster-building approach under Nick Caserio. Outside of some 2023 payments along the offensive line, the GM had spent little during his tenure — one that featured numerous short-term deals for middling veterans. C.J. Stroud‘s emergence shifted the Texans’ car out of neutral last year, and their 2024 offseason reflected the opportunity the Offensive Rookie of the Year provides.

Gifted with a rookie-scale QB contract for at least the next two seasons, Caserio put forth by far his most active offseason by making multiple trades for skill-position starters and signing a host of defenders in free agency. Tabbed as a potential Super Bowl threat despite Caserio having made multiple HCs one-and-dones and having traded the team’s previous franchise quarterback during a rocky tenure, the Texans gave Stroud a much better roster to lead in 2024.

Trades:

Diggs wore out his welcome in Buffalo, and the second half of his 2023 season no longer justified the payment or the occasional headache. The Bills, however, took on a non-quarterback record dead money hit ($31.1MM) to move on; the Texans dangling a future second-rounder changed the AFC East champs’ mind. Buffalo has shifted to a receiving corps featuring considerable uncertainty; Houston suddenly has a locked-and-loaded top three with Diggs set to join Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

For much of last season, Stroud did not have many places to turn outside of Collins and Dalton Schultz. The Texans still made this work, inviting intrigue about how their Bobby Slowik-run offense will look now that Stroud has Dell back and set to join one of this period’s best route runners. The Texans having looked into Keenan Allen weeks before acquiring Diggs highlights a type of wideout the team identified, as the longtime Charger-turned-Bears addition joins Diggs in being among this era’s best separators. Diggs, 30, being more than a year younger than Allen helped create a higher price tag.

Diggs played a central role in Josh Allen morphing from raw talent to megastar. Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins were moved on the same day in March 2020. Buffalo needed to included a first-round pick to pry Diggs from Minnesota, while the Bill O’Brien-as-GM Texans did not collect a first from the Cardinals for Hopkins. The Bills ended up with the better asset, as Diggs ripped off four 1,100-yard seasons — two surpassing 1,400 — and missed only one game while with Buffalo. It is worth wondering how Allen will look without his No. 1 target, and with Diggs likely having multiple quality seasons left, how this trade affects Stroud’s trajectory will be a lead 2024 storyline.

The Texans agreeing to remove the final three seasons from a team-friendly contract is, at least, worth questioning. Only $3.5MM in guaranteed money remained on Diggs’ Bills-built extension beyond 2024, and the Texans shifted that figure to the ’24 season and turned the trade pickup into a 2025 free agent-to-be. The Bills made Diggs play two seasons on his Vikings-constructed contract before giving him a four-year, $96MM extension in 2022. This profiled as a flexible contract the Texans could have moved had Diggs not proved to be a fit in Slowik’s offense, but they now face the prospect of the asset leaving in 2025 without any compensation coming back.

A franchise tag will be prohibitive, checking in north of $27MM, and because Houston adjusted the contract, no compensatory pick would come back if Diggs leaves in free agency. While Houston created some cap space with the move, the team added void years to do so. If Diggs leaves in free agency next year, the Texans would be hit with $16.6MM in dead money. This represented an odd step, and while it was framed as a motivational tool for Diggs due to the 2025 payday that would await, it does not seem that outweighed the advantage the Texans would have by leaving his contract untouched.

Houston also took the step of preventing a Mixon release. Not only did the Texans send the Bengals a late-round pick, they gave an eighth-year back $13MM guaranteed at signing. Aaron Jones, who has been a more complete back than Mixon since going off the board three rounds later in 2017, only fetched a one-year, $7MM Vikings pact. Dalvin Cook, whose 1,585 career touches trail his 2017 draft classmate’s count by nearly 300, is out of the league presently. After the Bengals gave Mixon a substantial pay cut last summer, the former second-round pick did very well for himself this offseason.

Mixon’s 1,854 career touches are the third-most among active RBs — behind Ezekiel Elliott (2,421) and Derrick Henry (2,185). At 28, Mixon is two years younger than Henry and nearly two years Jones’ junior. But the Texans are making a notable bet here, as only Saquon Barkley ($26MM) and D’Andre Swift ($14MM) secured more at signing than Mixon did this offseason.

The Mixon trade came to pass after the Texans offered Barkley more than $11MM per year, illustrating Caserio’s commitment to upgrading in the backfield after the 2023 team ranked 22nd in rushing (29th in yards per carry). Barkley said the Texans piqued his interest early, but it appears likely Houston did not match Philadelphia’s $26MM guarantee at signing. The Texans also pursued Swift and Tony Pollard. Both Barkley alternatives are better in the passing game compared to Mixon, though they offer less between-the-tackles muscle.

A four-time 1,000-yard rusher, Mixon did accumulate 376 receiving yards last season and 441 in 14 games in 2022. He has not averaged more than 4.1 yards per carry since 2018. The Texans, who saw Dameon Pierce take a notable step back last season, will bet on the Oklahoma product having some gas left in the tank. The Bengals appear to be betting against that, deeming Mixon not worth a $3MM bonus due on the back end of his reworked two-year, $11.5MM deal.

The rare constant on all three Caserio-era Texans defenses, Collins signed three contracts in three years. The most recent — a two-year, $23MM extension — preceded a five-sack season complete with a career-high 18 QB hits. A former Cowboys second-round pick, Collins became one of Caserio’s biggest hits during a period featuring many dart throws on midlevel vets. The Texans ended up overhauling their DT crew, and Collins will play his age-29 season in San Francisco.

Extensions and restructures:

Unlike a few other teams with high-end receiver extensions to complete, the Texans did well to beat the Vikings to the punch. Houston extending Collins days before Minnesota reset the market with its Justin Jefferson windfall helped keep this contract more in line with those Deebo Samuel and D.K. Metcalf signed in 2022. Had the Texans waited for Jefferson’s guarantee avalanche to shake the lower tiers of the market, they probably would have needed to go beyond $32.12MM fully guaranteed and $52.12MM guaranteed in total.

A former third-round pick, Collins delivered one of this decade’s stronger WR breakthroughs by ripping off a 1,297-yard, eight-touchdown showing in Year 3. This came after the Michigan product failed to eclipse 500 yards in a season during the two Davis Mills-led campaigns. Tied to Texans teams largely playing out the string in the wake of the Deshaun Watson mess, Collins became a pivotal part of a Slowik attack that depended on him once Dell went down. Collins’ 191- and 195-yard games sans Dell helped Houston to the AFC South crown, and the team did well to finish this accord when it did.

Collins, 25, came in above Metcalf and Samuel in terms of AAV but still sits as the league’s ninth-highest-paid receiver. That number will continue to drop, as players like CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk are rewarded, and the Texans undoubtedly benefited from Collins not being a steady producer during Tim Kelly and Pep Hamilton‘s OC seasons.

Joining Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard by landing a three-year extension will give Collins another payday opportunity in his late 20s. For now, the Texans can comfortably fit this contract — and Diggs’ since-adjusted deal — due to the bargain Stroud brings while tied to rookie terms.

Free agency additions:

Showing interest in retaining Jonathan Greenard, the Texans effectively completed a swap with the Vikings during the legal tampering period. Greenard was one of free agency’s first commitments, joining the Vikings hours into the tampering period. Hunter-to-Houston rumors did not emerge for nearly a day, and the Texans needed to fend off the Colts for the productive edge rusher. Indianapolis is believed to have offered more money in total, but Hunter — who played high school football in the Houston area — chose a return to Texas on a contract that comes nearly fully guaranteed.

The guarantee percentage Hunter secured is rare for contracts this pricey, but after angling to reach free agency for a bit, the former Mike Zimmer-era Minnesota staple both collected a high guarantee and the chance to hit the market again at just 31. Still 29 despite going into Year 10, Hunter’s deal will overlap with the two additional seasons Stroud must be kept on a rookie pact. This qualifies as a splurge for Caserio, who did almost nothing of the sort during his early years as Texans GM.

After neck and pec injuries sidetracked Hunter from 2020-21, he rebounded to elevate the 2022 Vikings to a surprising 13-4 record and then built on that to create a big market. Still pursuing a playoff spot, the Vikings opted against trading Hunter at the 2023 deadline. He ripped off an NFL-most 23 tackles for loss last season to go with a career-high 16.5 sacks. After Greenard delivered his best season under DeMeco Ryans, Hunter brings both an extensive production history — after becoming the NFL’s youngest player to reach 50 sacks and earning four Pro Bowl nods in Minneapolis — and age-related stability opposite Will Anderson Jr. Hunter’s history should help the Defensive Rookie of the Year see better matchups.

An injury-shortened 2022 season limited Al-Shaair’s market, but the former Fred Warner/Dre Greenlaw sidekick created more interest after a prolific Titans season. Al-Shaair, who found another 49ers outpost under Ryans after following GM Ran Carthon to Tennessee, racked up 163 tackles — the most by a Titan this century — and two sacks in 2023. Al-Shaair was in San Francisco for both of Ryans’ DC seasons but played under the current Texans HC during his two years spent as 49ers ILBs coach. This helped explain why the former UDFA sought the Texans in free agency, and after not putting much money into the linebacker spot from 2021-23, Houston upped its investment to fortify its defensive second level.

Despite ranking sixth against the run last season, the Texans rebooted at defensive tackle. They pursued Arik Armstead, but the nine-year 49er opted to rejoin the GM that drafted him — Trent Baalke — and sign with the Jaguars. Houston also showed interest in Christian Wilkins but may well have exited that race once the Raiders offered a staggering guarantee ($82.75MM). Lower-cost cogs signed up instead, with Autry’s deal more of a one-year contract with an option. The Jags had released Fatukasi, while Settle was a rotational presence in Buffalo.

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Autry has been one of the game’s steadiest D-line presences over the past several years, producing for other AFC South squads. After nine- and 7.5-sack seasons for Colts playoff teams in 2018 and 2020, Autry helped the Titans to the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a nine-sack slate alongside Jeffery Simmons in 2021. Although the Titans tumbled off that perch over the past two seasons, Autry displayed consistency by totaling between 17 and 19 TFLs during each of his three Tennessee seasons. This included a career-high 11.5 sacks in 2023. Capable of playing both inside and outside, Autry is going into his age-34 season. The Texans made a half-measure bet here, but they will bet on the former UDFA remaining at or near top form alongside Anderson and Hunter for 2024 at least.

Searches for weaknesses on this roster can lead to the No. 2 cornerback spot. While Derek Stingley Jr. has made gains since being a top-three draftee, the team has questions alongside its boundary stopper. Okudah went third overall two years before Stingley but has not justified that Lions investment. Okudah has at least stayed relatively healthy over the past two years, after playing in just seven games from 2020-21, but coverage metrics have not viewed his work positively. Pro Football Focus ranked Okudah 113th among corners during his Falcons contract year, and his passer rating as the closest defender (94.6) ranked 63rd among CBs in 2023.

Ryans and his staff will attempt to unlock a new level from the once-coveted corner, with Henderson — whom PFF has ranked outside the top 100 at corner in three straight seasons — also a former top-10 pick. The Panthers benched the ex-Jags first-rounder at multiple points, placing importance on second-rounder Kamari Lassiter‘s quick development.

Re-signings:

After Cowboys extension talks produced offers Schultz deemed unsatisfactory while on the franchise tag, the multiyear Dallas starter joined Mike Gesicki as 2022 tagged TEs who did not encounter a strong 2023 free agent market. While Gesicki remains in search of his payday, Schultz found his after playing a pivotal role in Stroud’s rookie season. The Texans gave the five-year Cowboy a top-10 tight end contract, though the guarantee at signing places Schultz sixth at the position.

Buoyed by an 808-yard 2021 season, Schultz ranks eighth among TEs in 2020s receiving yards. The 28-year-old pass catcher averaged a career-best 10.8 per reception in Slowik’s offense, amassing 635 and five touchdowns on the season. With Dell out of the picture for the stretch run, Houston relied on Schultz, who passed on another crack at free agency to stay with the AFC South club. This contract, which will keep Schultz in Houston for at least two more seasons, represents another example of Caserio attempting to build around Stroud’s rookie contract.

The Texans are the rare team with two mid-30-somethings along its defensive line, as Hughes (36 in August) is older than Autry. A Colts first-rounder during the Bill Polian years, Hughes is attempting to play a 15th NFL season. The longtime Bills starter registered nine sacks during a lost 2022 Texans campaign. Ryans demoted Hughes from starter to rotational rusher last year, and he compiled just three QB hits. Hughes could join Autry and Derek Barnett in supplementing Anderson and Hunter. If the Texans deem Hughes too far past his prime, they would eat more than $1MM in dead money.

Fairbairn has been the Texans’ kicker since 2017, while Weeks is set to create more distance between himself and Andre Johnson for most games played as a Texan. Fairbairn, 30, made 27 of 28 field goal attempts last season — his second straight slate with at least a 93% make rate. Going into Year 15 as Houston’s long snapper, Weeks has played 227 career games. No one else in franchise history has hit 170.

Notable losses:

Greenard expressed interest in staying with the Texans, but reports ahead of free agency pointed to a big market forming for the productive yet inconsistent Houston draftee. The former third-rounder scored a four-year, $76MM Vikings deal that came with $38MM guaranteed.

It is clear that despite Greenard’s success (team-high 12.5 sacks last season) the Texans did not view him on the level of Hunter, who is three years older but comes with a longer track record as a high-end pass rusher. (PFR’s top 50 free agents lists had the two at Nos. 5 and 6.) Last season marked Greenard’s only slate with more than 12 QB hits, though the Vikings — who certainly needed to beat other teams for the young free agent’s services — will bet on upside.

After a productive year in Ryans’ system, Rankins wanted to stay in Houston. But a bidding war led him to Cincinnati. The Texans rostered Rankins on a one-year, $9.75MM contract in 2023; they offered a two-year, $24MM deal to retain him. This led to the Bengals proposing a two-year, $24.5MM accord, bringing the former first-rounder into the fold. Rankins, 30, totaled six sacks and 10 QB hits — his most since 2018 — last season. The Texans’ interest in Wilkins, Armstead and another Rankins deal did not lead to any signings, and it will be interesting to see how the team fares in the middle.

Singletary overtook Pierce last season and offered the Texans some value on a one-year, $1.77MM contract, but Houston’s Barkley interest showed the team prioritized an upgrade. The Texans did make an offer to Singletary, though it came in at just $4MM per year. That is less than the ex-Brian Daboll charge secured to reunite with his former Bills OC as a Giant, as the team landed the 5-foot-7 back on a three-year, $16.5MM deal.

One of the many Chiefs cornerbacks who cashed in elsewhere during the Andy Reid era, Nelson made what looks like his last career stop in Houston. The Texans used the former third-round pick as a starter for two seasons. Under Ryans, PFF slotted Nelson 29th among corners; the Stingley sidekick matched his career high with four INTs and added 12 passes defensed. Nelson played through his age-30 season, completing a nine-year run that also included time in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. His exit leaves Houston with a CB2 question, as King is set to patrol the slot once again.

Letting Cashman and Perryman walk — to the Vikings and Chargers, respectively — points to Al-Shaair and former third-rounder Christian Harris being the team’s three-down linebackers. Perryman logged 73% of Houston’s defensive snaps last season, with PFF rating Cashman — who had mostly operated as a special-teamer pre-2023 — eighth overall among off-ball LBs. Al-Shaair’s deal, however, left little room for a Cashman re-signing — though, Houston did pursue another deal with the Minneapolis-area native.

Draft:

Houston’s trade with Minnesota mostly generated Vikings-based analysis, as it was viewed as the NFC North club’s potential gateway to a quarterback trade-up. The Texans, however, not only added a second-rounder this year but picked up a 2025 second in exchange for climbing down 19 spots this year. Caserio explored a trade back into the first round but ended up starting his draft midway through the second.

The Texans’ fliers on former top-10 picks (Jeff Okudah, C.J. Henderson) do not inspire confidence post-Steven Nelson, making Lassiter’s development paramount. Lassiter started throughout Georgia’s national championship-winning 2022 campaign and earned second-team All-SEC recognition last season. In addition to a team-high eight pass breakups, Lassiter showed value as a run defender with five tackles for loss. Unless the Texans can unlock another gear from Okudah, their 6-foot rookie CB has a clear path to early playing time for a defense coming off a 23rd-place ranking against the pass.

Fisher profiles as a developmental player, though given the rate of injuries the Texans’ O-line sustained last season, he might be needed early as well. Houston saw Tunsil miss three games, Howard miss 10 — during another season in which the Texans shuttled the former first-rounder back to guard — and its non-Shaq Mason interior group struggle to establish continuity due to health struggles. Howard is back at right tackle, and the team is giving 2022 first-rounder Kenyon Green — after a rough rookie season and a full-season absence in 2023 — a shot at reclaiming the LG role. No spot appears available for Fisher right away.

Notre Dame blockers, of course, have been key NFL O-line building blocks in recent years. Five teams (Cowboys: Zack Martin, Ravens: Ronnie Stanley, Colts: Quenton Nelson, Broncos: Mike McGlinchey, 49ers: Aaron Banks) are starting former Fighting Irish blockers this season, and the Texans used former South Bend presence Jarrett Patterson at center for stretches last year. Notre Dame’s RT starter for the past two seasons, Fisher developing quickly could prompt the Texans to reconsider Howard at guard. Though, Houston probably needs to pick a lane with its 2019 first-rounder at this point.

With Jimmie Ward going into his age-33 season and being a 2025 free agent, the Texans added Bullock as a potential starter alongside 2022 second-rounder Jalen Pitre. Bullock snared back-to-back first-team All-Pac-12 honors from 2022-23. A bit undersized at 188 pounds, Bullock showed flaws as a run defender but consistently produced in coverage. Five of Bullock’s nine career INTs (in three USC seasons) came in 2022, with two pick-sixes on his career resume. With Ward still in place and Eric Murray re-signed, the Texans should have some developmental time here.

Other:

Teams deeming Slowik not quite ready for a top job should be crucial in Stroud’s development, as the ascending passer will stay in the same system for a second year. Slowik interviewed for five of this year’s eight HC jobs, booking second meetings with the Falcons and Commanders. Slowik recommitted to Houston despite the Washington job remaining open, but the rookie Texans OC was viewed as unlikely to land the gig Dan Quinn ended up taking.

Slowik, 37, should be considered a frontrunner for a 2025 job. Stroud’s status could also allow the ex-49ers and PFF staffer to be patient, as regular interest figures to come his way as long as he is tied to the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Johnson interviewed with five teams, meeting with the Saints twice. This marks a rapid rise for the former practice squad QB, as he only moved up from the quality control level in 2022.

The Texans, after rocketing from 30th to 13th in points despite a poor rushing attack, may need to prepare for an exodus on their offensive staff. While these changes could disrupt Stroud’s climb, teams who hire defensive-oriented HCs run the risk of their quarterbacks’ infrastructure changing.

Watt and Ryans played together during the recently retired superstar’s first two seasons, and while the team already has an inside/outside option in Autry, the option of pulling one of the greatest D-linemen in NFL history out of the CBS studio should be considered appealing. This remains unlikely, and Watt (35) did retire partially due to a heart scare. But he quietly delivered a strong finale (12.5 sacks, 25 QB hits) in Arizona. In a part-time emergency role, Watt — who apparently is not planning to continue his maniacal workout routine beyond 2024 — could be a difference-maker for a contender. Although the 2028 Hall of Famer-to-be’s comeback pledge also naturally includes the Steelers, a Houston return would represent a better chance at a Super Bowl.

Top 10 cap charges for 2024:

  1. Laremy Tunsil, LT: $25.86MM
  2. Danielle Hunter, OLB: $13.7MM
  3. Robert Woods, WR: $9.71MM
  4. Derek Stingley Jr., CB: $9.45MM
  5. Tytus Howard, RT: $8.41MM
  6. C.J. Stroud, QB: $8.25MM
  7. Will Anderson Jr., OLB: $8MM
  8. Dalton Schultz, TE: $7.94MM
  9. Jimmie Ward, S: $7.79MM
  10. Nico Collins, WR: $6.64MM

Giving Ryans a six-year contract to come back to Houston led to the team vaulting from 31st to 12th in DVOA. The Panthers’ David Tepper-driven decision to draft Bryce Young over Stroud looks to have created another AFC contender, this one out of nowhere. The Texans went from an AFC South doormat with rosters putting the franchise well off the radar to one of the potential challengers to the Chiefs’ conference throne.

The Texans having two more seasons of Stroud on rookie terms gives them an advantage the rest of the AFC’s Super Bowl contenders lack, and their 2024 roster is noticeably improved. Although the Jaguars’ struggles after a 2022 surge may call for caution before anointing the Texans, their roster improvements would make it difficult to expect a step backward this season. Although the AFC’s QB depth will make a Super Bowl push this season challenging, how Houston looks in 2024 — particularly, how Stroud fares — will help form the AFC’s big-picture equation into the mid-2020s.