Placing bets on the Texans first round pick
For our fifth installment of the Texans Draft Prospect Review, we’re highlighting another offensive lineman who can step in right away and make an impact alongside the team’s diverse mix of veteran options.
Back in late January, I selected Josh Conerly Jr. to the Houston Texans not knowing the unmitigated onslaught of changes that were to come to the offensive line room.
Here is what I wrote about Conerly Jr. for the 25th pick:
Conerly played two seasons as the Ducks’ starting left tackle. The transition from PAC 12 to BIG 10 didn’t phase the Seattle native this season. He only allowed one sack all season and six QB pressures.
Conerly is still developing; he’s only 21 years old but is an elite, elite athlete with a basketball background and footwork to match. His frame can support more strength which will be necessary to reach his potential.
Conerly is a tad undersized for the left tackle position at 6’4, but is 47th percentile for a guard. Houston would shift Conerly to left guard to start his career with the goal of shifting him to left tackle when Tunsil is a free agent.
Past Prospects:
Let’s dive in. From a measurables standpoint, Conerly has what the NFL is looking for athletically. His biggest performance was an elite 10-yard split, which is among the most important combine metrics for lineman.
According to NFL.com’s profile on Conerly his improved performance, balance, and quickness allow him to define plays and make a difference up front.
NFL.com’s Draft Profile: Strengths
– Showed vast improvement as the season progressed.
– Movements are composed and relatively athletic.
– Accelerates hard into down blocks.
– Works with strain at the point of attack and is rarely on the ground.
– Consistent, well-balanced slides both diagonally and back inside.
– Throws a sudden punch with good pop.
– Squeezes B-gap and scans for incoming when rusher voids.
Here’s Conerly Jr.’s PFF grades throughout the entire season. First thing that pops off the page is the exclusive left tackle play. Even though Conerly is shorter than former draft prospects Grey Zabel, Jonah Savaniiaea, and Wyatt Milum, his athletic frame, superior length, and play style only lends itself to playing on the outside at tackle. His arm length is a full inch and a half longer than either Zabel or Milum’s.
BATTLE RED ANALYSIS:
Much has been said about Conerly Jr.’s seismic leap from his sophomore to junior season starting at left tackle. The assumption is that the 21 year-old has the athletic profile and trajectory to be a starting left tackle in the league. There is a significant amount of chips in on his trajectory rather than pure play. Does Conerly, have the cleanest tape in this class? No. That said, the traits, signals, and composition is there. Combined with the improved performance in 2024 and trajectory he’s on, there’s a legitimate starting tackle in there. I don’t suggest moving him inside to guard at all; he’s a true tackle.
As we did with Milum, I want to review Conerly’s play against NFL-talent through Abdul Carter.
Across the board, Conerly gets beaten whenever Carter dips his shoulder. Carter disrupts multiple plays by going around the edge and forcing the QB up in the pocket. Conerly does a good job of controlling Carter, but to say he “won the day” would be the furthest stretch of all time. There’s moments where Conerly’s footwork and ability to keep his feet down when in contact stymie Carter’s movement, but there’s equal moments when Carter makes an inside move that stuns Conerly.
Pass Protection:
- Hand placement and fighting skills drastically improved throughout 2024
- Hands catch rather than disrupt
- Late and obvious hands allows pass rushers into his chest
- Shorter upper body frame allows defenders to rip around him easier
- Clean kick-slide technique allows for quality mirroring
Run Game:
- Has major tells indicating where he is going/stepping
- Converts wide stance to powerful leg drive through contact
- Will pull, but doesn’t bring the full 310-pounds to bear
- Good at moving in zone in sequence
THE COMPARISON: One notable NFL offensive lineman who fits is Rashawn Slater. Drafted 13th overall in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Chargers, Slater has been a multi-year starter at left tackle. Standing at 6’4” with an arm length of 33 inches, he was considered slightly undersized for the position. Despite this, Slater is renowned for his exceptional athleticism and technique, effectively neutralizing top pass rushers. Slater has gone to two Pro Bowls in his four season in Los Angeles.
THE FIT: Right now, he’s projected to go late first, early second round. Where he goes greatly depends on how many players go before him. If there’s seven offensive lineman taken in the first 20 picks, he’ll land in the first. But if the entire position slides due to free agency needs being filled he could wind up in the 40s. Conerly would benefit from a season in the NFL weight room and training facility honing his technique but should be a dependable long-term starter for the Texans.
If Conerly is the only quality tackle available at 25, I feel safe suiting him up to protect C.J. Stroud’s blindside after, say, six-ten games of prep. However, if the draft falls the Texans way and Conerly is still hanging around in the 40s, there’s no doubt in my mind they should expend legitimate draft capital to go get him and double down early. Oh, and at the time of this writing, Conerly was confirmed to have visited Houston.