Jared Sapp of Arrowhead Pride joins BRB for five questions
The only three teams standing in front of the Texans and their first Super Bowl appearance were on their schedule this past season. That sometimes makes these little features more tricky as we try to think of new topics of discussion. The Chiefs and Texans just saw each other a month ago, so not a whole lot has changed from the outside looking in, but every day is a new day and a new opportunity to get a new result. We sat down with Jared Sapp of Arrowhead Pride again to get a little more inside information on the Texans opponent.
Battle Red Blog: The Chiefs and Texans met in week 16. Have there been any significant injuries or recoveries since then that we should know about?
Jared Sapp: On the first day of practice this week, Andy Reid confirmed that everyone on the roster would participate. In addition to the 52 players currently on the active roster, that includes cornerback Jaylen Watson and wide receiver Mecole Hardman who have been designated to return from injured reserve.
Hardman will likely be activated for the game, though I’d be surprised if he does anything more than work in the return game and maybe have a couple of designed gadget plays.
There is less certainty that Watson will be available this week, but his return would be huge. He was having a great season before breaking his ankle in October. The Chiefs have tried to fill his snaps with various options without ever finding a great option. Having him at least available in a rotational role would have the added benefit of moving Trent McDuffie back to the slot in nickel formations where his skills truly shine.
BRB: Long layoffs affect players differently. Most of the prominent Chiefs have been off for two weeks now. How do you think that will affect them?
JS: More like three weeks considering few key players saw any real action after Christmas. The Chiefs have played more football than anyone else over the past six seasons and have navigated the stop and start nature of the Super Bowl four times. I think the long layoff is a legitimate concern, but I am going to trust a team that has played through every scheduling irregularity imaginable over the last few seasons to be ready. I think a veteran coaching staff and battle tested roster will handle it.
Patrick Mahomes and Chris Jones also had leg injuries late in the season. I don’t have any doubt that rest was the best decision for the team’s two most important players, no matter how it plays out.
BRB: Is there anything you learned about the Texans from the first meeting that you think Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuola will exploit on Saturday?
JS: I am sure Spagnuolo has been watching the tape trying to figure out how to limit the damage from Nico Collins as they were able to do without leaving a second receiving option wide open. I don’t think John Metchie is on Tank Dell’s talent level, but I expect the Texans to try to attack favorable match ups with him if Collins sees the same double coverage.
The Texans were widely able to handle the Chiefs’ front four in the first meeting, but Spagnuolo got to Stroud on a cornerback blitz by Joshua Williams that essentially sealed the win. I expect the Chiefs to go back to the blitz early if the pass rush isn’t getting home.
The first game saw the return of Hollywood Brown, and the Chiefs piloted a quick passing scheme that looked much more crisp four days later against Pittsburgh. With Brown, Xavier Worthy, and DeAndre Hopkins, I think the Chiefs have their best chance to execute the offense they spent camp planning for when they expected to have Brown, Worthy, and Rashee Rice for the season.
An interesting decision will be left tackle. Guard Joe Thuney kicked outside the left tackle in December for the last three games that mattered (including against Houston). It will be interesting to see if Reid believes Thuney can line up for a second match up in a month against Houston or if veteran DJ Humphries is protecting Patrick Mahomes’ blindside with Thuney back inside at his natural fit at left guard.
BRB: The current weather forecast has the temperature getting down to 19 degrees. How do you see this impacting the game?
JS: A year ago, the Chiefs persevered through a generationally dangerous cold playoff game. I believe that since Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018, the Chiefs have won five playoff games with kickoff temperatures below freezing. I think the Chiefs have the experience to know what will and will not work on offense for different elements, and the defense is battle tested from two frigid playoff games a year ago.
One thing that makes me nervous, especially if wind is a factor, is place kicker Harrison Butker. He has not looked like his reliable self since returning last month from a knee injury. I think he will rise to the occasion and do what he has done in previous postseasons, but there is a little unease in Chiefs Kingdom about the kicker.
BRB: Fanduel has opened the number at 7.5 points in favor of the Chiefs. Do you see the Chiefs covering that number? What are some other prop bets you feel comfortable recommending?
I get the number. Houston went 1-5 against this year’s NFL playoff field, and three of those teams defeated the Texans by eight or more, including the Chiefs. The Texans also looked on their way to losing a lopsided game on Saturday before just outclassing the Chargers from the end of the second quarter on. I am going to predict a 27-20 Chiefs win on Arrowhead Pride, so I think the Texans will very narrowly cover the spread.
FanDual currently has Kareem Hunt’s rushing yards at over/under 31.5. I suspect he will exceed that fairly comfortably. Since Isiah Pacheco returned from a broken fibula, he and Hunt have alternated drives, but now Pacheco is coming off of a late season rib injury. Pacheco also really has never gotten into a groove since returning. The Chiefs wore Hunt out earlier in the season, but he will come into this game well rested, and I expect him to see the bulk of work on first and second downs.
We want to thank Jared for being a good sport and indulging us for the second time in about a month. Remember, you can catch everything Chiefs at our sister site Arrowhead Pride if you want more information on the Texans’ opponent coming into the game. We want to wish Jared and the Chiefs the best of luck from here on out. As usual, we hope that luck begins on Sunday.