Is the young Texans quarterback regressing?
There is nothing more important in professional sports than the evaluation of a quarterback. Letting a good one go can set your franchise back several years if not a decade. However, committing to one that is not elite can also set your franchise back several years as well. You can look no further than what is happening with the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars right now.
You could potentially add the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos to that group as well. C.J. Stroud was the darling of the NFL last season and was well deserving of the offensive rookie of the year award. Yet, that doesn’t necessarily mean he is a franchise quarterback. We think that he is, but the Washington (then) Redskins thought they had one when Robert Griffin III was a rookie sensation. They are seeing a repeat of that with Jayden Daniels.
Stroud is a likable guy. That’s what makes this hard. We saw a likable guy here before and that turned into a disaster. Luckily for the Houston Texans, that mostly blew up in the Cleveland Browns’ face. Looks can be deceiving. I don’t think Stroud will be a scumbag on that level or anywhere near it, but all of this is to say that investing nearly $60 million per year in a franchise quarterback is easily the most important decision a franchise will make.
Everyone knows I love statistics. Statistics can tell us a lot of things, but it can’t necessarily answer all of the questions. However, it is a start. We have to acknowledge some hard truths about Stroud and the year he is putting up so far. We can get into the whys and what-fors following that.
Key Statistics
2023: 273.9 YPG, 63.9 PCT, 8.2 YPA, 100.8 Rating, 57.5 QBR, 4.6 TD%, 1.0 INT%
2024: 237.7 YPG, 63.5 PCT, 7.2 YPA, 91.9 Rating, 56.2 QBR, 3.7 TD%, 1.4 INT%
We start with the obvious. He has not been as good this season as he was last season. A part of that is always expected. The league gets tape on you and defensive coordinators get paid to make your life more difficult. Plus, more advanced stats showed he threw many more interceptable balls last season than ended up being picked. Simply put, regression is something normal to expect.
Now, if we take his numbers and project them out over a 17 game schedule then we can begin to get an idea of what kind of quarterback we are talking about. Those stats last year came in 15 games. Let’s assume the very best and assume that Stroud is 100 percent healthy for the whole season.
Projections: 4041 passing yards, 21 TD, 8 INT
I’ll be 100 percent honest. Those are not the kinds of numbers that franchise quarterbacks put up. Those are good numbers and certainly better than most of the Texans quarterbacks in franchise history, but we have also had a checkered history of quarterbacks. Fitzpatrick and Hoyer are not the bar.
2015 Hoyer: 11 games, 2606 yards, 60.7 PCT, 19 TD, 7 INT, 91.4 Rating, 52.8 QBR
2014 Fitzpatrick: 12 games, 2483 yards, 63.1 PCT, 17 TD, 8 INT, 95.3 Rating, 61.8 QBR
These are two quarterbacks that were part-time players and quarterbacks the team was all too happy to move on from. Yet, when you look at quarterback ratings, QBR, and season projections for Stroud they don’t look all that different from what those two guys produced. So, there are three possibilities that can all be true to some degree.
Explanation One: Stroud is being mismanaged
This is what I call the Bill O’Brien theory. The former franchise quarterback always seemed to be a square peg in a round hole. O’Brien coached him like he was Tom Brady and the former guy was never that guy. Every game felt familiar as the O’Brien offense would flounder for two and a half quarters before the former guy had to play hero ball in the last quarter and a half.
Things are not that bad for Stroud. I think the coaching staff has a handle on what he does well and what he struggles with. At least they seem to in comparison with THOSE teams. However, he seems susceptible to pressure up the middle and has a habit of holding onto the ball too long. That’s normal for young quarterbacks and there seem to be few adjustments offered from the coaching staff.
Explanation Two: He is still growing
This one feels like the right explanation and an unfortunate part of the NFL is that decisions on extensions have to be made following year three. At least, that seems to be the timeline the rest of the league is on. So, teams have had to condense their timeline on their decisions on young quarterbacks, In some cases, one year is all they need to decide whether their young guy is the guy they want.
I get it. It’s a brutal world and in that world it is difficult to allow someone time to develop. The flip side is being the Jacksonville Jaguars where you have given your guy a king’s ransom and he appears to be less than brilliant. There is always a combination of factors and it is just as true in C.J. Stroud’s case as it is in Trevor Lawrence’s case.
The question from a scouting standpoint is whether the issues keeping him from being a true top five or ten quarterback are things that he can develop or whether they just aren’t there. He seems to have the accuracy. He seems to have enough arm strength to get by. The question is whether he will develop that elite pocket awareness and internal clock needed to make quicker decisions and avoid negative plays.
Explanation Three: His team is failing him.
In particular, the boys in front are just not getting the job done. The Texans are tied with the New England Patriots with 31 sacks given up. That puts them squarely on a pace to surrender 59 sacks on the season. Granted, this is not 2002 David Carr territory, but it is a significant bump from the 47 sacks they surrendered last season. Moreover, those 47 sacks ranked 11th in the league (22nd if going in reverse) with almost the exact same offensive line.
The thought process going into the season seemed to be that they would be better with Juice Scruggs at center and Kenyon Green at left guard. They also thought that putting Tytus Howard outside would improve that spot as well. I suppose the thought that adding Stefon Diggs would also make it easier for Stroud to get the ball out quicker. It is safe to say that none of those things seemed to be the magic elixir to get Stroud to go to the next level as a quarterback.
This is closely related to the scheme argument because one always works hand in hand with the other. However, you get to a certain point where you can’t turn chicken excrement into chicken salad. It’s a chicken or the egg theory. Either the coaching staff is not using the talent effectively or the front office didn’t bring in the right talent.
Or the Worst Case Scenario…
The above are merely excuses. Some of them may be good excuses, but they are excuses just the same. The worst case scenario is that Stroud is not quite elite. We have seen enough of him to see that he is good, but is he really a top five or top ten guy? Obviously, it doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have a future with the Texans if he is merely good. Matt Schaub was good until his Lisfranc injury. It just means that he can’t be treated like he is great if he is merely good.
What does everyone else think? Are the numbers down because the league is catching up to Stroud and the Texans? Are they down because the coaching isn’t putting them in position to succeed? Are the numbers down because the team didn’t do a good enough job of patching up the offensive line? Where do you stand?