Comparing and evaluating Stroud’s performances from the first three weeks of his first two seasons.
Personally, I am a walking announcer’s curse. From telling my co-workers we’d all be back in the office in a week around mid-March of 2020 to hyping up last year’s Houston Astros as “the team to win back to back World Series since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees”, I have a personal proclivity for jinxes, curses, and backfires.
Speaking things no one wants to hear into existence may be a new one for me. As a positively optimistic person to the point that former writer Matt Weston would go to lengths to criticize me for it (see: C.J. Fiedorowicz), it’s soul crushing to see dark clouds forming around our quarterback.
As sports fans, there’s a natural instinct to only process information we want to agree with; whether that’s positive or negative. Cleveland Browns fans are always waiting to be disappointed (and for the most part get their way) while Dallas Cowboys fans hail their team as the lord’s gift to the western hemisphere. It’s the definition of confirmation bias. All this to say that the single last thing any Houston Texans fan wants to hear is that QB C.J. Stroud may in fact be coming back to earth. He may in fact be human. And worst, he may in fact be in the midst of the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’.
queue gasping sound from audience
There’s a tangible difference in the expectations surrounding this season compared to the last one. If the Texans looked anything resembling a professional football club again it would be considered a win. No one was expecting the offensive production that become the norm by the end of 2023. As it pertains to Stroud, his expectations are in a different quantum realm than this time last year.
Even so, there’s something off about Stroud. It’s the disjointed offense. It’s the turnovers we didn’t see last season. It’s the ineffectiveness on third down. Something is off. Is it the defenses knowing what’s going on? That felt plausible when former Texans dominated in the game against Minnesota. Or is it something greater? Or simply, is it a return to the median?
Someone check my blood pressure…
Alright. Let’s switch from qualitative to quantitative. Or as my college statistics professor said, “take your hand off your heart and put it on your calculator”.
What Texans fans embraced about the early Stroud era was the week-over-week improvement and minimal turnovers. Turnovers lose games, which is what Stroud did twice against the Vikings. Take a look at PFF’s grades for Stroud the first three weeks of his NFL career.
Stroud’s 2023 PFF grades by week three:
Stroud looked like any rookie QB week one, grew into the game in week two, then took over in a dominant performance in week three. He had thrown four touchdowns to zero interceptions and been noticeably more confident week over week.
Let’s compare that to this year’s PFF stats:
As expected, Stroud started his sophomore season off better than his rookie year, but his performance against Minnesota exhibits his lowest performance of the six games presented here. Stroud has thrown the same number of touchdowns (4) but his two interceptions and lack of efficiency weigh heavy on these ratings.
Stroud does average more per game thus far this season than last, but we expect more; more growth, more success, more winning. This potential stabilization around the median is concerning. The difference is Stroud is exhibiting a regression to the mean rather than picking up where he left off.
Take a look at C.J. Stroud’s 2024 week three throwing chart via NFL’s NextGen Stats.
Now take a look at his Week Three performance from 2023.
There’s similarities. Stroud loves to target the short end of the field to the right side. That’s plausible for all right handed athletes. One of the most distinct differences between these two games one year a part is the inefficiencies deep. This year against he was 1/5 with one interception. Last year, he was 3/4 with one touchdown. The lack of ability to throw the ball downhill is like making a wrong move in chess; it compounds fast. When the defense doesn’t fear Stroud deep, they can limit yards after the catch and everything underneath. Defenses have almost fully limited Dalton Schultz from the passing attack.
There are more expectations this year than last year by a mile and that very well may be the root cause of this consternation. The anticipation of this season has never been higher and any kinks in the iron appear more like gashes in the Great Wall that is the Houston Texans 2024 season.
Reality is, it’s [KITTEN] early. Look across the league; the only teams that appear to have their ducks in a row are the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, and venerable Kansas City Chiefs. Everyone else looks like an elementary school class in an ice rink for the first time. We’ve just begun. I’d rather Stroud and the offense have issues now and gel later than look like kings in week three and wimps in week eighteen. Ask any Miami Dolphins fan how last season went for them… also I would do a wellness check on them right now they may need it.