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Bills vs. Texans Preview: Will Stefon Diggs Break Buffalo’s Spirit?

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Bills Texans

The Buffalo Bills stood atop the NFL mountain one week ago. They were 3-0, and quarterback Josh Allen was the consensus MVP favorite. Now, after a beatdown from the Baltimore Ravens, they’re in a precarious position ahead of a meeting with former teammate Stefon Diggs and the Houston Texans.

Diggs spent four mostly productive years in Buffalo before his relationship turned sour with Allen and the organization. He’s off to a strong start with the Texans, tallying three total touchdowns in four games, and he’d probably love nothing more than to have a monster performance against the reeling Bills.

Meanwhile, Allen and Co. desperately need a bounce-back showing in order to prove the lopsided loss to the Ravens wasn’t a sign of things to come. A difficult stretch of their schedule leaves them in serious danger of losing all of their early-season progress.

Kickoff for Sunday’s game at Houston’s NRG Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.

Bills-Texans Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 5)

X-Factors

Bills: RB James Cook

Like Buffalo, Houston’s only loss so far this season was a blowout. A 34-7 dismantling by the Minnesota Vikings. Running back Aaron Jones was key for the Vikes in that Week 3 matchup, tallying 148 yards and a touchdown on 24 touches (6.2 yards per touch).

The Bills need a similar efficient, pace-setting performance from Cook on Sunday. The 25-year-old Miami native found the end zone four times in the team’s first three games. He wasn’t able to get heavily involved against the Ravens, however, finishing with just 10 touches.

Buffalo’s entire offensive focus this season has surrounded balance—an “everybody eats” approach. So perhaps it’s no surprise the one game it wasn’t able to establish a well-rounded attack is the one that went sideways. It doesn’t have enough game-changing weapons in the passing game to play one-dimensional football.

Cook should be able to find some running lanes against the Texans. Houston’s defense is allowing 4.7 yards per carry, which is tied for 24th in the NFL.

So, given the favorable matchup and how last week’s game got away from Buffalo when it didn’t establish the run, this is a game where Cook should see 20-plus touches. Otherwise, it’ll probably be a sign the game has gotten away from the Bills again.

Texans: DT Tim Settle Jr.

Diggs isn’t the only player having a reunion with the Bills on Sunday. Settle spent the past two years in Buffalo. The veteran defensive tackle started his NFL with four seasons as a member of the Washington Commanders.

The 27-year-old Virginia Tech product is seemingly finding a comfort zone in Houston. He’s already matched his sack total (two) in 32 games for the Bills in just four outings with his new team. He’s also chipped in seven total tackles.

Houston needs a strong performance from its defensive interior on Sunday. Not only is slowing down Cook early important, but Baltimore was able to get a push up the middle against Allen, and it caused Buffalo to change its protections. The Ravens followed up with some edge blitzes that led to free rushers.

The Texans will likely attempt to replicate that strategy. It’ll only be successful if their defensive tackles are able to win their one-on-one battles with the middle of the Bills’ offensive line. Pressuring Allen through the A gaps is the one thing that’s consistently given him problems over the years.

So, the onus is on Settle, Mario Edwards Jr. and Folorunso Fatukasi to have a standout showing for Houston.

Key Matchup

Bills CB Christian Benford vs. Texans WR Stefon Diggs

Buffalo mixes up its defensive coverages and Houston has been moving its wide receivers around the formation, so this matchup likely won’t occur on every play. That said, it should happen quite a bit and it’ll be an intriguing battle when they do line up across from each other.

Benford is in the conversation as the NFL’s most underrated cornerback. The 2022 sixth-round pick tallied 18 total tackles, two passes defended and an interception during the season’s first month. His Pro Football Focus grades are among the position’s best:

Speed is the one thing that can give the 24-year-old corner some trouble. Diggs, 30, doesn’t have a ton of that at this stage of his career, however.

Meanwhile, the main reason the Pro Bowl wideout is enjoying so much success with the Texans is having two other high-end wideouts around him. The double-team looks a few and far between with Nico Collins and Tank Dell also on the field.

Although that’s not the only reason for Diggs’ success—he appears far more mentally engaged than he was last year in Buffalo—it definitely helps. He’s not the same player he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of winning consistently against single coverage.

Benford is light-years better than most of the cornerbacks Diggs has faced so far in 2024, though. So, while the Texans receiver would enjoy nothing more than to post an eye-popping stat line Sunday, he’s going to have to earn every yard to make it happen.

Final Score Prediction: 28-20 Texans

The Bills face a turning-point game Sunday. They weren’t as good as they appeared during their 3-0 start because of an injury-riddled roster. They aren’t as bad as they looked in last week’s mauling by the Ravens. So, what are they? The answer may come against the Texans.

Injuries are still a concern, though. Linebacker Terrel Bernard and cornerback Taron Johnson are back at practice, but left tackle Dion Dawkins, wide receiver Khalil Shakir, and safety Taylor Rapp are now dealing with ailments. Sunday’s lineup is up in the air as a result.

Add in a banged-up Allen and it’s tough to see the Bills keeping pace with Texans signal-caller C.J. Stroud and his plethora of offensive weapons. That’s especially true with Buffalo edge-rusher Von Miller suspended four games for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.

Houston should smell blood in the water. This is a game where a top-tier contender would elevate its game and take advantage of a wounded opponent, just like Baltimore did last week. The rest of the AFC should want to push Buffalo as far down the standings as possible before it potentially gets healthy.

The Bills are going to play better this week. Head coach Sean McDermott typically gets his teams to rebound from losses quite well. Yet, at least on paper, this won’t be a matter of effort but rather talent. Buffalo is running low, particularly on defense, and Houston’s offense certainly is not.

Bottom line: the Bills fight hard to keep it close, but the Texans pick up the win.

Main Image: Thomas Shea – USA Today Sports

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