Nothing is guaranteed, but it’s hard to ask for a better SEC schedule than what the Aggies were handed in 2024
In the coming weeks, we will be taking a deep dive on each of A&M’s conference opponents plus Notre Dame. We will break down what they lose, what they bring back, where they look to be really strong, or where they might be vulnerable. But before we go in-depth on these teams, let’s set the scene with a high-level look at the schedule.
As far as SEC schedules go, A&M’s 2024 schedule is rather forgiving. The Aggies dodge three of the top four projected SEC squads (Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss) as well as Tennessee and OU. They never play consecutive games away from Kyle Field, and what appear to be their four toughest games are spaced evenly apart AND all played at home.
Texas A&M 2024 football schedule:
- Aug. 31: vs Notre Dame
- Sept. 7: vs McNeese
- Sept. 14: @ Florida
- Sept. 21: vs Bowling Green
- Sept. 28: vs Arkansas (neutral site)
- Oct. 5: vs Mizzou
- BYE
- Oct. 19: @ Mississippi State
- Oct. 26: vs LSU
- Nov. 2: @ South Carolina
- BYE
- Nov. 16: vs New Mexico State
- Nov. 23: @ Auburn
- Nov. 30: vs Texas
For some additional context, I like to use Bill Connelly’s Preseason SP+ Projections to get a good baseline grasp of the teams A&M faces. SP+ measures the predictable and sustainable aspects of football. The preseason projections factor in returning production, recruiting, and recent history. It does not factor in coaching changes.
SP+ Rankings
4. Texas
9. LSU
10. Notre Dame
11. Missouri
13. Texas A&M
31. Auburn
33. Florida
43. S. Carolina
46. Arkansas
68. Miss. St.
94. BGSU
114. NMSU
NR. McNeese (FCS team)
Right off the bat, there is a clear-cut top four like we mentioned earlier: Texas, LSU, Notre Dame and Mizzou (with A&M right on their heels). These are the four you circle on the calendar. While playing them all at home is certainly an advantage, these teams are stout. They are all well-coached, have very good college QBs and good offensive lines (though ND might be questionable here).
Road trips to Auburn and Florida could tell the tale. Both have solid teams and are tough places to play, but these are winnable games. A&M will need to kick their recent road woes to meet expectations.
A&M will likely be favored by a good bit against South Carolina, Arkansas and Mississippi State.
Nothing is guaranteed in this league, but it would be hard to come up with a better draw in Mike Elko’s first year (except maybe working in a warm up game before hosting the Fighting Irish).
So what about the Aggies? How will they look this season? With Mike Elko back in Aggieland, A&M has the talent and coaching to field a dominant defense that can allow them to hang around in any of these games. There are a few games on this schedule where the opponent simply won’t be able to block A&M’s front for four quarters.
It’s the offense, where most are taking a wait-and-see approach, that could keep this team from winning 9 or 10 games and potentially making the new 12-team playoff. There is a lot to like about pairing Conner Weigman with new OC Collin Klein, but the success of the offense will come down to the offensive line. We need to see that unit play well until we truly buy in.
But what is curious to me about this schedule is: which of these teams will actually field a great defense? If A&M is vulnerable on the offensive side of the ball, which teams can truly take advantage and shut them down?
- Notre Dame lost some key players, but should still put an excellent defense on the field in 2024. After them, there are questions abound.
- Texas was absolutely dominant against the run last year, but leaky in pass defense. Their two all-world defensive tackles are in the NFL now.
- Mizzou was great on defense in 2023, but had FIVE defenders selected in this year’s NFL Draft and lost DC Blake Baker to LSU.
- Auburn also had FIVE defenders get drafted.
- Arkansas’ defense was gutted by the draft as well as the transfer portal.
- South Carolina might actually be improved on defense! Although that may not be saying much.
- LSU and Florida each fielded putrid defenses a year ago and appeared to do very little in the offseason to fix them (though we will see what the aforementioned Baker can do with the LSU defense).
- Mississippi State is in a total rebuild.
Now, don’t start chugging the maroon Kool-Aid just yet. This is still the SEC. A&M is going to end up facing some good defenses and be in some dogfights. The point that I want to get across is that by not facing Alabama or Georgia (or even Ole Miss or Tennessee), A&M is going to miss most of the better defenses/defensive lines in the conference.
It all comes down to the offensive line. If they can merely be good, then the Aggie offense can be good enough to get this team to 9 or 10 wins with this schedule. If the offensive line isn’t improved from what we have seen the last two seasons, it’s going to be tough sledding for the A&M offense against just about any of these teams.