The NY6 bowl games now have added stakes with the addition of the 12-team playoff. The Peach Bowl pits two teams with very little history against each other. The matchup will be just the second ever between Texas and Arizona State. But even so, many people claim to “love” the sport and complain about all the blowouts. So with the Peach Bowl odds being another spread of double digits, are the haters in store for some confirmation bias? Or will Arizona State shock the Texas Longhorns and spring a true upset that the masses are clamoring for?
Scorching Hot Sun Devils
Arizona State will not have played a football game in 24 days when the Peach Bowl kicks off. Of course, the last time we saw the Sun Devils, Kenny Dillingahms’ team was steamrolling Iowa State en route to a Big 12 conference championship. Arizona State has been rolling in their last four games with hot starts. They have outscored opponents 101-13 in the first half of those games. Arizona State leans heavily on a powerful ground game. Their 198.8 yards per game average is 22nd-best in the country. It starts with their do-it-all running back Cam Skattebo.
He finished the regular season as the only player in the country with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 400 receiving yards. That total was achieved despite missing nearly two games’ worth of action. His 184 receiving yards after contact are sixth among FBS running backs and 34th among all FBS offensive players. Skattebo’s 92.6 overall grade by Pro Football Focus (PFF) is the second-highest graded running back this season. It is also the fifth-highest offensive player at any position in FBS. To overcome the large Peach Bowl odds, Skattebo must have his best game of the season.
Arizona State Offense Has Complementary Counter-Punch
While Skattebo has rightfully earned plenty of attention, the quarterback of this Sun Devil’s team has solid in 2024. Sam Leavitt is the nation’s highest-graded freshman player on either side of the ball with an overall PFF grade of 90.3. That is nearly 4 points higher than Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. Leavitt is the seventh-highest-graded quarterback in the nation and the 15th-highest-graded player in the FBS regardless of position. Leavitt has made smart decisions with the football all season.
He is the only quarterback in the country with 20+ touchdowns with five or fewer interceptions AND turnoverworthy throws (four). However, the major concern for this Arizona State offense is finishing drives against a fierce Texas defense. Arizona State’s Red Zone offense is ranked 109th in the nation, converting those drives into points only 78.4% of the time. That is a major concern facing a defense that has held 10 of 14 opponents to 17 points or less this season (Georgia twice 30 and 22, Vanderbilt 24, Clemson 24).
Best Unit In the Playoff
These Peach Bowl odds are not unfamiliar to these Longhorns. Texas faced a double-digit spread to cover against Clemson in the first round of the playoffs. While Clemson did have some bright spots in the game, Steve Sarkisian’s team had one late score that covered the 13.5 points. According to Fanduel, Texas is a 12.5-point favorite and will lean on the nation’s best defense. No matter how this pie gets sliced, the Texas defense stands out. They rank nationally third in total defense, 10th in rush defense (104.2), second in passing yards allowed, and second in scoring defense (13.3). Remember the Sun Devil’s poor Red Zone offense? Well, to make that challenge even harder, the Longhorns have the sixth-best Red Zone defense. Opponents are only scoring 71% of the time when they manage their way inside the Texas twenty-yard line.
Not only are the yards hard to come by, but the Longhorns do an excellent job at taking the ball from the opposing offense. Texas leads the FBS in turnovers gained with 29 and has at least one takeaway in
22 consecutive games, which is the longest active streak in the FBS. One of the stars of this defense is the Jim Thorpe Award-winning defensive back Jahdae Barron. Through 14 games, Barron leads the team in interceptions (5) and pass breakups (11). He also has 50 total tackles, two tackles for loss, one sack, and one forced fumble. Barron ranks fourth in the FBS in total interceptions this season.
Plenty Of Talent On Texas’ Offense
Did anyone know that they have a Manning playing quarterback on the Texas roster? All joking aside, both Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning have had their moments as the quarterback for the Longhorns. The concern for Texas fans should be Ewers protecting the football. Ewers, and the Texas offense as a whole, have had stretches of games where they play with their food. It very easily could have cost them the Texas A&M game and it did cost them the SEC championship against Georgia. But despite getting into stretches of the game where moving the ball “feels” difficult, Texas actually does a great job keeping the chains moving. Their first downs offense ranks sixth in the country, meaning they have earned sixth most first downs in the country.
Much of that success is because the Longhorns have a Joe Moore Award finalist unit in the trenches. This beefy unit, whose smallest remember is Jake Majors is officially listed at 6’3” 315, is led by left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. The 2024 recipient of both the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy, Banks Jr. will likely be hearing his name called in the top 10 of the 2025 NFL draft. Majors will break the Texas career record for starts. The Peach Bowl will be the 56th start for Majors. Surprisingly, Texas hasn’t been a dominant rushing team comparatively speaking. But they might have found their stride just in time in their home playoff game against Clemson where they rushed for 292. That bodes well for an offensive line that averages 324 lbs going against a Sun Devils defensive front that doesn’t have a player bigger than 295 lbs.
Can Longhorns Cover The Peach Bowl Odds?
There is plenty of history to be made if Texas can win. A playoff quarterfinal win would secure Texas’ first 13-win season since 2009 when the Longhorns finished 13-1 overall with a BCS National
Championship appearance. It would also be the program’s third 13-win season (2005, 2009). For Texas’ sake, they better cover the double-digit Peach Bowl odds. This season, Arizona State is 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less and 6-1 in games decided by one score (8 points or less). The Sun Devils dream season has been fun, but it’s going to come to an end in Atlanta.
Skattebo and company have not faced anything close to this defense. The size difference has been noted in the trenches. In addition, all of the things Arizona State does poorly at, Texas excels. Remember how good Texas is at moving the chains? They are going up against the 104th-ranked First Downs Defense. Even if Ewers does make a poor choice with the football, except the rushing attack of the Longhorns to carry the day again. The momentum Arizona State had coming into this game will be stolen in the first quarter and never relinquished.
Texas 35, Arizona State 17
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