A tough test awaits the Aggies in week one
The Mike Elko era has an opportunity to start with a bang as Texas A&M will face Notre Dame in their season opener. The Fighting Irish are a historic program and likely preseason top 10 team, College Gameday will be in town, and everyone in the country will be tuned into this one on ABC. You simply could not ask for a better chance to go out and make a statement in the first game under a new head coach.
Notre Dame at Texas A&M
6:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug 31
Kyle Field (College Station, TX)
There are two interesting notes about this game that I think are worth pointing out. They could mean something, they could mean nothing.
- The starting QB for Notre Dame is Riley Leonard, who was Elko’s starting QB during his two seasons at Duke. You could make a case that Leonard could have an advantage after practicing against an Elko defense for two years. However, Elko is going to know every strength, weakness and tendency that Leonard has as a QB as well. That, to me, is a bigger advantage.
- Duke played against Notre Dame last year and could have (should have?) beaten them! The current head coach at A&M nearly pulled out a victory against Notre Dame just a season ago with a vastly less-talented roster than the one he will field on Aug. 31. That doesn’t mean everything, but it is certainly worth noting.
How did they fare last season?
Notre Dame performed much better in their second season under Marcus Freeman, even if their record only improved from 9-4 to 10-3. Against the lesser teams on their schedule (plus USC), they won by wide margins, and they were able to sneak out of Durham with a 21-14 win over Elko’s Blue Devils.
Their losses were a 17-14 thriller against Ohio State at home, as well as their two toughest road games: 33-20 @ Louisville and 31-23 @ Clemson. Their 40-8 bowl win over Oregon State looks impressive on the surface, but Oregon State was entirely depleted by that point after head coach Jonathan Smith left for Michigan State and several starters had opted out or entered the transfer portal.
Notre Dame preseason SP+ rankings:
Overall: 10th
Offense: 10th
Defense: 9th
Current betting line:
Texas A&M -1.5 (FanDuel), but there is no consensus. Several books have this as a pick ’em (neither team favored).
What contributors did they lose?
- LT Joe Alt (No. 5 overall pick)
- RT Blake Fisher (2nd round)
- LB Marist Liufau (3rd round)
- CB Cam Hart (5th round)
- LB JD Bertrand (5th round)
- RB Audric Estime (5th round)
- DE Javonte Jean-Baptiste (7th round)
- QB Sam Hartman (UDFA)
- C Zeke Correll (NC State)
Who did they add?
- QB Riley Leonard (Duke)
- WR Kris Mitchell (FIU)
- WR Beaux Collins (Clemson)
- DE RJ Oben (Duke)
Where are they strong?
In my opinion, Notre Dame is the best defense that A&M will face in the regular season. They were elite in the secondary last season and return a future 1st-rounder in CB Benjamin Morrison and a first-team All-American (and 2023 Nagurski Trophy winner) in safety Xavier Watts.
Their defensive tackles are excellent and very experienced. Howard Cross III returns for a 6th season after recording an eye-opening 39 pressures last season (per PFF) and earning second-team All-American honors. His counterpart is 5th-year senior Rylie Mills, who piled up 32 pressures of his own. Their sack numbers are modest (just 4.5 sacks last year between the two), but make no mistake – these guys can get after the quarterback.
While they will miss the physical running style of Audric Estime (a bruiser at 5’11, 227-lbs), they return two true sophomores that boast a ton of athleticism and speed in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love recorded a 10.76 in the 100m in high school and showed flashes of brilliance in limited time last year. Price (a Denison, TX product) averaged an explosive 34.4 yards on kick returns while housing one against USC.
QB Riley Leonard is said to be at 100% and should be an improvement over Sam Hartman. He is a good passer, and a magician when it comes to avoiding sacks and extending plays.
Notre Dame should be improved at receiver with the additions of speedster Kris Mitchell (over 1,000 yards at FIU last season) and possession receiver Beaux Collins, to go along with returnees Jaden Greathouse and Jordan Faison. However, I don’t think this would qualify as a “strength” of their team.
Where are they vulnerable?
By far the biggest question mark for Notre Dame is their offensive line. Joe Alt was absolutely elite at left tackle (allowing just five pressures all year and only one sack), while Blake Fisher was a very good college tackle. Their replacements (Charles Jagusah and Aamil Wagner) are 2nd and 3rd year players respectively with one collegiate start between them. The interior only returns on full-time starter from a year ago in LG Pat Coogan.
The total number of combined collegiate starts for the projected starters on their offensive line? 20. For comparison, the projected starters on the A&M O-line have over 80 starts between them. Notre Dame has talented players on their line, but the inexperience is a huge concern. The one time we did see them play together (4 of the 5, at least) was against Oregon State in the bowl game. Their PFF grades were…not good.
On defense, while the secondary for Notre Dame was elite last year, the run defense was good-not-great. As good as Cross and Mills are at rushing the passer, they are just OK against the run. Both starters at inside linebacker a season ago (Bertrand and Liufau) are off to the NFL, Notre Dame will move veteran Jack Kiser from Rover to WLB, and rely on true sophomore Drayk Bowen at MLB. With Kiser playing a new position and Bowen only having played in mop-up duty so far, this could be a unit that takes a little while to gel.
How do they match up with A&M?
As far as the Aggie offense goes, I think they can pull this off if they can do two things.
First, keep Conner Weigman upright. Yes, I am well-aware of the struggles that the offensive line has had the last two seasons. However, I think our tackles could actually match up pretty well with Notre Dame’s defensive ends (RJ Oben and Jordan Botelho).
The key matchup is Cross and Mills vs our interior OL. I am very high on LG Chase Bisontis and think he can hold his own in this game. It will come down to RG Armaj Reed-Adams and whoever starts at center for the Aggies. We will have a size advantage, but our guys will need quick feet to stay in front of these dudes.
Second, I think Collin Klein can take advantage of the Irish linebackers. They are physical players and you can’t run right at them, but look for Klein to use motion and some creativity in the run game to make Kiser and Bowen think a little bit and throw them off their game. It also wouldn’t shock me if our OL could push the Notre Dame front around a little, but that’s still TBD.
On defense, A&M needs it’s defensive line to dominate this game. That group is looking like it could be as deep and as talented as ever, so they need to take advantage of an inexperienced OL for the Irish, protect the linebackers behind them, and get after Riley Leonard.
Even if the DL dominates, the linebackers and defensive backs need to bring their lunch pails and get Leonard and Love to the ground when they do make contact. You can’t arm tackle those two dudes.
If this were a season ago, I would be very worried about how our secondary matches up with Notre Dame (or anyone), but that group is now deep with talent and experience and the starters should be more than capable of staying with the Irish wideouts. Perhaps the best receiving threat for Notre Dame is tight end Mitchell Evans who is still working his way back from a torn ACL last October. While he may play in this game, it’s hard to imagine he will be 100% of what he was last season this early.
Verdict?
This a huge game for Elko and A&M. Notre Dame is a well-coached team with some real difference-makers on both sides of the ball and this should be a tough, hard-fought game. I will save my “official” prediction for the week of, but the A&M defensive front, the combo of Weigman and Klein, and the 12th Man, I think the Aggies could pull this one out.