A road trip to Gainesville is one the Aggies need to win
Texas A&M is on the road here in week three to visit Billy Napier’s Florida Gators. Florida, who was already facing perhaps the most brutal schedule of all time, started the season with a dud, falling 41-17 to the Miami Hurricanes. Napier may be coaching for his job on Saturday, but A&M really can’t afford to start the season 1-2.
Texas A&M at Florida
2:30 p.m. Saturday, Sep 14
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, FL)
Injury Report
Florida has been bit by the injury bug since the preseason and it has only continued to get worse. Starting safety Asa Turner is out again this weekend, while contributors CB Devin Moore, Nickel Sharif Denson, and DE TJ Searcy are questionable. Even worse, the Gator’s star receiver Eugene Wilson is also listed as questionable.
On the A&M side, everyone is wondering about starting QB Conner Weigman’s availability after he was listed as questionable late Thursday afternoon. Whether or not he plays obviously plays a huge role in this game. In addition, CB Tyreek Chappell and S Trey Jones III are listed as OUT, while LB Scooby Williams is listed is questionable after missing last week’s game.
Florida SP+ rankings:
Overall: 31st
Offense: 16th
Defense: 55th
Current betting line:
Texas A&M -4 (ESPN BET).
Offense Overview:
The Gator offense is the better of the two units, but put up a poor performance in week one. QB Graham Mertz threw for just 91 yards on 20 attempts and was pressured on 40% of his drop backs while being sacked 3 times. RB Montrell Johnson broke a 71-yard touchdown run, but averaged just 3.5 yards on his other 10 carries.
QB is the elephant in the room in Gainesville though. After Mertz struggled in week one, he missed last week in concussion protocol. Enter 5-star true freshman DJ Lagway, who put up 456 yards passing with three TDs and no turnovers against Samford. Gator fans will be clamoring for Lagway, but Napier intends to play both against A&M.
WR Elijah Badger is a vertical threat, averaging 27.7 ypc and being targeted an average 24.8 yards down the field, but Wilson is the go-to receiver for the Gators. If he can’t go, the Aggie defense should be able to blanket the Florida receivers while letting their defensive line take advantage of a vulnerable Florida OL. The A&M run defense has allowed a couple of explosive plays on the ground, so containing Johnson will be a big test for them.
Defense Overview:
The defense was Florida’s achilles hell last season and it has been a lot of the same so far in 2024. Miami’s Cam Ward carved them up for 385 passing yards and three touchdowns, but Florida was able to hold the Hurricanes to just 4.4 yards per rush. DT Caleb Banks is a good interior DL, LB Shemar James is healthy and playing well, and DE Tyreak Sapp seems to be improved as a pass rusher, tallying 7 pressures and 2 sacks so far this year.
Where Florida is still very vulnerable is the secondary. CB Jason Marshall Jr and S Jordan Castell are fine players, but far from elite. Florida was really counting on junior CB Devin Moore to bolster the other corner spot, but he’s only been able to play 6 snaps this season. Other starters like the aforementioned Turner and Denson sat out last week with injuries and could very well miss the A&M game too.
Texas A&M’s offensive line has been one of the bright spots so far this season and they should be able to keep the Gator pass rush at bay. They should also be able to pave the way to allow RB Le’veon Moss to have a big day while making things easier on the QB (whether it’s Conner Weigman or Marcel Reed).
Verdict?
This is Mike Elko’s first road game as the A&M head coach and the Aggies haven’t won a road game since 2021. No SEC game is “easy”, The Swamp is a tough place to play and the QB situations on both teams is all of a sudden very interesting.
There is a world where DJ Lagway comes out guns blazing, Marcel Reed struggles in his first collegiate start, and some bad weather combines to put a damper on A&M’s season. However, Florida is reeling as a program and A&M has, in my opinion, a significant coaching advantage with Mike Elko over Billy Napier. I think the trench play carries A&M to a win and a cover in Gainesville and the Aggies improve to 2-1.