The College Football Playoff has entered its 12-team era and perhaps the most interesting matchup of the weekend is Ohio State versus Tennessee. As the eight-vs-nine matchup, these two are the closest in the minds of the CFP Committee and it marks the first time Tennessee travels to Columbus. This is just the second time the Buckeyes and Volunteers have faced off. The last time, Tennessee took down the Buckeyes was in the infamous 1996 Citrus Bowl.
This is just the third time Tennessee has traveled above the 39th parallel north for a postseason game (New York Charity Bowl, 1931; Garden State Bowl, 1981) and the 18th in the program’s 133 seasons of existence. Since 2000, this is the fifth.
At the same time, this is the 16th time Ohio State gets to face off against an SEC team (at the time they are playing, so we are not counting Texas, Texas A&M, etc). The Buckeyes are a less-than-stellar 2-13 in such matchups, even including the vacated 2011 Sugar Bowl win over Arkansas.
Ohio State Hosts Tennessee in the CFP Saturday Nightcap
How We Got Here
Expanding the CFP was a great decision if you ask for either of these programs. Both are sitting with a pair of losses and both teams have lost to teams that, on paper, they really should not have.
Tennessee entered this season with CFP expectations and even loftier beliefs that the Volunteers could take the SEC. Tennessee started off 4-0 with three commanding out-of-conference wins and a narrow victory over Oklahoma. Then, Arkansas happened and brought Tennessee back down to Earth in an embarrassing 19-14 loss. Thick in the SEC schedule, the Volunteers had no time to wallow in pity and they took down Florida before defeating Alabama for the second time in three years. Wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State followed before a massive matchup with Georgia. The Bulldogs got the better of the Volunteers, effectively hamstringing their SEC chances. Regardless, Tennesse dispatched UTEP and Vanderbilt in the final two weeks of the season to finish 10-2 and eager to prove itself in the CFP.
Ohio State had a similar track to get to this point. After three uncompetitive non-conference matchups, the Buckeyes kicked off Big Ten play with two defensively dominant wins. Then, a trip to Eugene, Oregon gave the Buckeyes to take control of the conference. As Will Howard‘s knee hit the turf with 00:00 on the clock, the Buckeyes fell by one. After a closer-than-you’d-like win over Nebraska, the Buckeyes traveled again to a top-five foe, this time, Penn State. Ohio State overcame the 10-0 hole it dug itself and beat the Nittany Lions to get back into the conversation. After that, the Buckeyes took care of business against Purdue, Northwestern, and a top-five-ranked Indiana to put themselves one win away from the Big Ten Championship. Then, the Buckeyes lost to an unranked Michigan team to finish the regular season 10-2.
Both teams are eager to show they belong after disappointing regular seasons.
When Tennesee Has the Ball
The strength of the Volunteers’ offense is its ability to run the ball. Young quarterback Nico Iamaleava is a playmaker who is always looking to extend the play and make something of nothing. However, it’s running back Dylan Sampson who is the focal point. The junior running back was named SEC Offensive Player of the Year this year. Considering he led the conference with 256 carries, 1,485 yards, and 22 touchdowns, it’s easy to see why. He’s as shifty as they come and has that home-run speed that can break the game wide open.
Iamaleava has shown flashes of being the real deal this year. At the same time, he’s had some wild plays where he puts himself and/or the ball in danger. Despite all of that, he heads into this one while completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,512 yards and 19 touchdowns with five interceptions. While he may not have any receivers who stand out on paper, Ohio State would do well to account for Dont’e Thornton. The senior receiver leads the nation with 25.9 yards per reception and is the definition of a big play threat.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has the best scoring and total defense as well as the second-best passing defense and seventh-best rushing defense. Up front, defensive tackles Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton will be trusted to gum up the middle to give the linebackers and safeties the opportunity to come down and make stops. Expect to see consensus First-Team All-American safety Caleb Downs shooting downhill to make the play.
The question will be can Davison Igbinosun and Denzel Burke limit penalties? Neither player is adept at getting his head turned around to make a play on the football in 50/50 situations and will get called for pass interference at least once a game. Iamaleava will give them opportunities to make plays. He will also pick on them if they keep getting into trouble.
When Ohio State Has the Ball
The last time we saw this Ohio State offense, it was like running headlong into a brick wall expecting it to move out of the way. Ryan Day and Chip Kelly went into the Michigan game hellbent beating Michigan at its own game. If they go into this game with the same mentality, the boobirds are going to be louder than ever before.
The strength of the Ohio State offense is its weapons. Howard has to manage the game and take care of the football while letting players like Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka take care of the rest. Smith has been raking in honors left and right and enters this game with 934 yards and a Big Ten-best 10 touchdowns off 57 catches. He was only targeted twice in the second half of the Michigan game and they came on back-to-back plays on the first drive of the third quarter. Needless to say, Day and Kelly need to find a way to get Smith the ball. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are great running backs but Tennessee’s run defense has been just as stingy as the Buckeyes’.
Ohio State has faced its share of stud defensive linemen and James Pearce, Jr. will be no different. The potential first EDGE taken off the board in next Spring’s NFL Draft, Pearce can and will wreck the game for Ohio State if given the opportunity. He and his running mate Joshua Josephs have combined for 20 tackles for loss and nine sacks on the year. With Ohio State still playing around with its offensive line makeup, Tennessee’s defensive line could make Howard’s job that much more difficult.
Survive and Advance
The first-ever December home game at Ohio Stadium is sure to entertain. Both Ohio State and Tennessee will be playing with chips on their shoulders. They both want a crack at the top dog in the Rose Bowl. The weather is looking to be quite chilly on Saturday with an expected single-digit wind chill.
The last time Ohio State made the CFP, it gave eventual National Champion Georgia everything it could handle. Perhaps this time when facing an SEC foe, Day and company don’t squander multiple two-touchdown leads and let it come down to a 50+ yard field goal.
There are certain timelines where Ohio State wins this one easily. There are timelines where Tennessee goes into the Horseshoe and gets the win. As cliché as it is, this game will be won in the trenches.
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