We spoke to Dave Waters at Gators Breakdown to get the scoop on Florida
We’re three days away from Texas A&M’s shot at redeeming their season hopes as they travel to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators. We’ll tell you more this week about our thoughts, but first, we wanted to hear how the other side is feeling. For that, we reached out to Dave Waters at Gators Breakdown to answer a few questions.
Good Bull Hunting: A&M and Florida’s seasons have somewhat mirrored each other so far, starting with a disappointing home loss to a ranked opponent before a get-right game against an FCS team. At 1-1, how are Gator fans feeling at the moment?
Dave Waters: After the Miami game, it feels like Gator Nation’s patience with Coach Napier is wearing thin. Napier spent all offseason talking up an experienced roster and improved depth, promising fans would see it all come together this year. But then Florida got steamrolled by a Miami team that’s on the same rebuilding timeline. It’s tough to swallow.
Florida had months to prepare, and still laid an egg at home. That made it six straight losses going back to last season. Sure, beating Samford last week stopped the bleeding, but let’s be real – it hasn’t really changed the big picture. Fans are still pretty worried about where this program is headed.
GBH: I think many on the A&M side view this game similarly as a “must win.” It’s an SEC opener with many seemingly tougher opponents left on the schedule, and losing this one doesn’t bode well for the rest of the season. Is that how it’s being viewed in Gainesville as well?
Dave: This game is absolutely seen as a “must-win” for Florida and Coach Billy Napier. After the Miami fiasco, the pressure’s really on. You’ve got to wonder if Napier can rally the troops. I mean, Florida should’ve come out swinging this season, but they looked flat against Miami. Now, with A&M’s new coach Mike Elko making his first road trip, this seems like a more winnable game compared to what’s coming up. Let’s face it – for any shot at a bowl game or to build some momentum, Florida’s got to take this one. It’s do-or-die time in Gainesville.
GBH: Know what looms in the back half of Florida’s schedule, how critical is this game for Billy Napier’s future with the Gators?
Dave: Let’s be real – this game could make or break Napier’s future at Florida. After that Miami disaster, his seat’s not just hot, it’s on fire. Napier desperately needs a win here. It’s do-or-die time for him.
Here’s the thing: if the Gators lose to the Aggies, especially if it’s another embarrassment like Miami, I wouldn’t be shocked if Florida cuts ties with Napier soon. And we’re talking early in the season here. That’s how serious this is.
Now, there’s a wild card in play – DJ Lagway. If Napier gives Lagway significant playing time and it’s a close loss, he might buy himself some time. But without the Lagway factor? A loss could spell the end for Napier’s tenure in Gainesville. The pressure’s on, big time.
GBH: Lagway sure lit up the stat sheet against Samford. Do you think he gets the start next week or do they go back to Mertz? I know many Aggies would have loved to see D.J. in maroon and white.
Dave: Assuming Graham Mertz clears concussion protocol, I think he gets the start. But don’t be surprised if Lagway sees significant playing time too. Napier’s keeping his cards close to his chest on this one, saying, “I don’t want to put the playbook on the streets here, but the guy’s one of our better players. We’re gonna give him a shot to make an impact.”
Lagway did make an impact against Samford. The true freshman QB absolutely lit it up, shattering records left and right. 456 passing yards – not just a Florida freshman record, but the highest in the FBS this season. He also completed an impressive 72% of his passes and threw for three touchdowns.
Now, let’s not forget about Mertz. His last outing against Miami wasn’t pretty. There were high hopes for him in his second year with the system, but so far, the results have been underwhelming. The million-dollar question is: was the Miami game just a bad day at the office, or is this a sign of things to come? One thing’s for sure – Lagway’s got the higher ceiling. The real question is whether Napier’s ready to hand him the keys to the offense.
GBH: Beyond QB, who are the impact players for Florida that Aggie fans need to know about?
Dave: Beyond the quarterback position, two players stand out as key impact makers for Florida. On offense, wide receiver Eugene “Tre” Wilson III has been exceptional. In the recent game against Samford, Wilson recorded a career-high 141 yards on six catches with a touchdown, all in the second half. His performance last season was equally impressive, leading all FBS true freshmen in receptions per game (6.1) and ranking high in several other receiving categories. Over the last seven games, Wilson has amassed 561 yards on 54 catches with six touchdowns. Despite his productivity, there’s a sentiment that the Florida staff could utilize him even more effectively.
On the defensive side, transfer linebacker Grayson “Pup” Howard has emerged as a standout performer. Howard, who replaced Scooby Williams (now at Texas A&M), has made an immediate impact. While Florida’s defense struggled against Miami, particularly in pass rush and coverage, Howard led the team with six tackles, including three solo stops. A notable play was his third-down tackle at Florida’s five-yard line, forcing Miami to settle for a field goal. Howard’s performance in Week 1 earned him a PFF grade of 80.5, the highest among Gators defenders, indicating his potential to be a defensive cornerstone for the team.
GBH: What is the biggest strength and weakness for the Gators on each side of the ball?
Dave: Extending the previous question, wide receiver is the biggest strength for this Gators offense. Quarterback play will determine just how good they can be. We’ve already discussed Wilson, but Florida brought in some help for him through the transfer portal with the additions of Elijhah Badger (Arizona St.) and Chimere Dike (Wisconsin). Badger had an impressive 77-yard grab from DJ Lagway last week against Samford. That catch marked the longest of his career and extended his streak to 28-straight games with a reception (10th-longest in FBS). He finished the day with three catches for 123 yards. Dike also made his presence felt with a 44-yarder last week, complemented by first touchdown catches for redshirt freshman Aidan Mizell and true freshman Tank Hawkins. There’s potential for Florida to be more explosive in the passing game with DJ Lagway at QB compared to Graham Mertz, but this receiver group can really elevate their QB’s performance… if they have time to operate.
Florida’s offensive line, however, stands as the biggest weakness on the entire team. The recruiting hasn’t met expectations, and now in the third season with this staff, it’s evident that the development isn’t there either. There are some bright spots with Austin Barber at left tackle and Jake Slaughter at center, but the rest of the line has issues, particularly on the right side. Florida is still rotating players at right tackle, alternating between Kam Waites and Brendan Crenshaw-Dickson.
It’s clear that Florida is still far from settling on a starting five, as evidenced by Napier’s recent statement: “I think we’re still trying to figure out what the best lineup is there. Look, we need to get better. That group has to play better. I think we took a step in the right direction. We practiced better. Obviously the competition level was different, right? So this week we’ll face a huge challenge and that will be a big part of the game. Up front on offense can we answer the bell and show up and play a certain brand of football. When we have to protect, we have to do our job in that regard. The offensive line needs to continue to grow and develop and improve as the season goes for sure.”
This uncertainty is particularly concerning as Florida prepares to face Texas A&M’s formidable defensive front.
On the defensive side, the biggest strength appears to be the starting linebacker duo of Shemar James and Pup Howard. This gives Florida two true linebackers that they haven’t had in recent seasons. Shemar James had to compensate for weaker linebacker play beside him last season, and we’ve seen his performance improve with Howard alongside him. James recorded his first career interception against Miami, showcasing his playmaking ability. While the linebackers have rotated frequently so far this season, it’s expected that this will stabilize as SEC play begins, with James and Howard clearly standing out as the best two options.
The most significant concern on defense continues to be the secondary. Despite fielding many young players last season in hopes of improvement this year, the performance against Miami was disappointing. The pass rush is also a major issue, contributing to the secondary’s struggles. There’s a noticeable lack of playmakers in Florida’s back end, and miscommunication remains a problem, leading to the explosive plays this defense frequently concedes. Adding to these concerns are injury issues: starting corner Devin Moore, his backup Ja’Keem Jackson, starting nickel Sharif Denson (who missed the Samford game), and transfer safety Asa Turner (injured against Miami with no return timeline) are all dealing with health problems. For a defense that was supposed to benefit from last season’s experience and transfer portal additions, these injuries pose a significant challenge to a unit already in need of substantial improvement.
GBH: Give me your official game prediction, and how you see this one playing out.
Dave: Predicting this game is tricky, especially with the uncertainty around Florida’s QB situation. Honestly, I’m in a “show me” mindset with Napier right now. The matchup between Florida’s O-line and the Aggies’ D-front is a big concern for the Gators. That could be the game-changer.
Florida’s ground game has been struggling, and their pass protection? Let’s just say it’s not exactly rock-solid. I’m still trying to shake off that Miami game – if Florida couldn’t get fired up for a rivalry match, why should we expect them to be ready for this one? The urgency should’ve kicked in by now.
My gut says Texas A&M takes this one, 27-20. A couple of big plays could make all the difference. Now, if Napier decides to give Lagway most of the snaps, Florida might just squeak by. But for now, I’m sticking with my prediction: the Aggies leave The Swamp with a W.