The winner will control their own destiny in the SEC race
After each team dropped their season opener, both Texas A&M and LSU have reeled off six straight wins and are the only two teams in the SEC that remain unbeaten in conference games. The similarities don’t stop there. Both teams have scored a big win at home over a top 10 opponent and pulled out wins on the road where they didn’t play their best.
Most oddsmakers have A&M favored by -2.5 (3 points are typically baked in for home field advantage. Bill Connelly’s model predicts the Aggies to win by a single point, Parker Fleming’s has LSU by less than a point, and ESPN’s matchup predictor favors A&M ever-so-slightly at 52.8%-47.2%.
The margins in this one are sure to be slim, so let’s take a look at the key matchups that could decide the outcome.
Texas A&M’s back seven v. LSU’s pass catchers
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Probably the single biggest key that could swing this game in A&M’s favor. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier throws the ball about 40 times a game and their offense goes as he and the Tiger receivers go.
The A&M secondary is greatly improved and, outside of a couple of busted plays, has performed well this season. Corners Will Lee III and Dezz Ricks excel in press coverage, which I would expect to see them play a lot of this weekend.
However, LSU boasts the best top-to-bottom receiver room that A&M will have faced so far this season. Wide receiver Kyren Lacy is Nussmeier’s favorite target out wide while Aaron Anderson (who has really emerged this season) is the go-to guy in the slot. When Nussmeier needs to move the chains, TE Mason Taylor is a very reliable target.
There are others such as CJ Daniels (probable for Saturday) and Zavion Thomas. Lacy will have a drop every now and then, but this is a sure-handed group that excel at making difficult catches.
Can Lee, Ricks, BJ Mayes, and Jaydon Hill stay in front of these LSU receivers? Can Scooby Williams keep tight coverage on one of the best tight ends in the country in Mason Taylor? If they can hold up long enough to give the defensive line a chance to do their thing, it would go a long way in securing an Aggie win. Speaking of that defensive line…
Texas A&M’s Pass Rush v. LSU’s Offensive Line
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This is one of the most anticipated matchups on the entire A&M schedule and one that will draw the eyes of every scout in the NFL. LSU LT Will Campbell will be selected within the top ten picks of next year’s draft, while RT Emery Jones has drawn plenty of love from NFL scouts in his own right. This is one of the top OL units in the country and easily the best one the Aggies have seen this year.
However, their pressure rates (per PFF) paint an interesting picture. In four games against teams not named Ole Miss or South Carolina (two very good defensive lines), they allow pressure on just 17.5% of Nussmeier’s dropbacks. In the other two games? 32.9%.
Against power conference opponents (plus Notre Dame), A&M has registered a pressure on 39% of dropbacks. In their two most recent games (Mizzou and Mississippi State), that number shoots up to 44.3%.
The matchups that will draw the eyes of scouts are A&M defensive ends Nic Scourton and Shemar Stewart against Campbell and Jones. It’s certainly important and it’s a matchup where I would favor the pass rushers in maroon and white (I mean, black).
What is even more interesting to me is the rest of the A&M pass rushers. Ends Cashius Howell and Rylan Kennedy bring more speed to the table than Scourton and Stewart, and both have been ascending in recent weeks. Can Shemar Turner provide pressure from the interior? Can A&M use stunts and different blitz packages to get a free rush on Nussmeier? Linebackers Taurean York and Damion Sanford have excelled on blitzes.
Maybe the biggest key of all is for the Aggies to actually get Nussmeier on the ground when they do pressure him. A lot of the big plays they have given up have been when quarterbacks escape the pocket and keep their eyes downfield. Nussmeier is excellent at this, having only been sacked once all season.
Conner Weigman v. LSU’s Secondary
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The offensive line has done a great job of keeping Conner Weigman clean and they will need to continue that effort against LSU’s Bradyn Swinson who is one of the top pass rushers in the country (28 pressures this season). I trust them to do so and I trust Collin Klein to scheme up successful plays for the offense.
Before last week, I would have expected Weigman to shred the LSU secondary. He was coming off the best game of his career against Mizzou and LSU ranks 15th in the SEC in defensive passing efficiency.
This section is really Conner Weigman v. Conner Weigman, as I think the only thing that could hold him back in this game is himself. He still had several plays last week where he looked like the player he is capable of being, but a handful of head scratching plays that are a concern.
Was it due to both teams wearing the same colors? Did he not see some of those defenders or make an incorrect read? Was the first interception a ball that just slipped out of his hand? We don’t know, and hopefully after this week none of that will matter.
With LSU in all white and A&M sporting all black, the uniforms won’t be the reason this week. With a raucous crowd on his side, protection from the OL, and a run game to lean on, if Weigman gets back on track this weekend, A&M can show the millions who are watching what they are all about and vault themselves squarely into the playoff conversation.