Can A&M pull out a win in a hostile environment?
Coming off a big win at home over a top ten team, many folks in the media are pointing to Texas A&M’s road trip to Columbia, SC as a “textbook trap game”. If this were South Carolina teams of years past, they might have a point.
However, this is a team that is a few bounces of the football away from being 6-1 instead of 4-3. Their defense is top five in sacks, top ten in TFLs, and they rank a very respectable 28th in Bill Connelly’s SP+. Mike Elko said on Wednesday that South Carolina is “probably the best team we’ve played all year”. Elko and his players have maintained all week that this is not a game they are taking lightly.
So it’s not really a trap game, it’s a game against a really good team in an incredibly raucous road environment. Can the Aggies come out and play hard from the jump, or will there be a letdown factor in play? Let’s look at some key matchups that could swing the game for each team.
Texas A&M’s Interior OL v. South Carolina’s DTs
The Gamecocks are statistically much better against the pass than the run (10th in success rate on dropbacks versus 91st in success rate on runs). That bodes well for A&M (who can run the ball as well as any team in the country), but South Carolina will almost certainly load the box and try to make A&M beat them through the air.
South Carolina defensive ends Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart are outstanding football players, easily the best pair of edge rushers that A&M will face this season. However, A&M’s offensive tackles have held up very well in pass protection this season. Of course they won’t be able to keep Kennard and Stewart in check every play, but they should be able to hold their own for most of the night.
Where A&M can’t afford to get beat is the interior. Gamecock DTs Tonka Hemingway and TJ Sanders are extremely disruptive, combining for 25 QB pressures, 6 TFLs, and 5 sacks. The Aggies will be without Chase Bisontis for a second straight game, so can one of TJ Shanahan or Kam Dewberry step up at LG and play well consistently? Koli Faaiu and Armaj Reed-Adams have put together some nice performances lately, A&M will need them to continue their level of play this weekend.
If A&M can hold up on the interior, it will go a long way towards keeping Marcel Reed (or Conner Weigman) comfortable in the pocket. If they can’t, it will only make it more difficult for the tackles to keep up with South Carolina’s edge rushers, and make it tough to get much going through the air.
Texas A&M’s Pass Game v. South Carolina’s Pass Defense
To go along with the previous point, A&M has to figure things out in the passing game to get where they want to go this season. We just talked about the pass protection, but it’s also on Collin Klein, the receivers, and whichever QB the Aggies roll out on Saturday to all get on the same page.
South Carolina doesn’t allow much through the air, so A&M likely won’t be able to completely light them up in the passing game. But can they at least make the plays that are there to be made? Klein does a great job of scheming guys open most of the time, can Reed or Weigman take what the defense gives them and make the right reads and throws? Can the receivers make the tough catches?
If A&M can have just moderate success in the passing game early on, it will really open things up for Le’veon Moss and Amari Daniels on the ground.
Texas A&M’s Defense v. LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders
South Carolina has not been great on offense, especially on the offensive line. They rank either last or second to last in the country in both sacks and TFLs allowed. Their offensive success rates in both running and passing rank outside the top 100.
A&M’s defensive line should have a field day, but QB LaNorris Sellers and RB Rocket Sanders are 240lbs and 230lbs respectively and are a threat to create chunk plays on the ground if you don’t wrap them up.
With Sellers being such a threat with his legs, it will be interesting to see how Elko and Jay Bateman game plan for him. Scooby Williams is the most athletic linebacker A&M has, will he be tasked with spying Sellers?
The Aggie linebackers and safeties have really rounded into form as of late, but they will still miss a tackle here and there. Maintaining proper run fits and wrapping up in space will be paramount to securing a win on Saturday.