Previewing the Auburn game with advanced stats

Welcome back to Fun With Numbers, we’ve been away for a bit because of a much needed bye week and easy home win against one of the worst teams in FBS, but we’re back now to talk about Aggie Football and advanced stats. So let’s just dive into it.

What Do We Know?

Texas A&M goes on the road again, this time to Jordan-Hare where they will face a 4-6 Auburn team that is desperate to make something good happen this season. It’s been an unlucky season for War Eagle, 3 of their losses have been one score games and most of them have been turnover fueled nightmare heartbreakers for Tiger fans. The Aggies are a slight road favorite, walking into an SEC night game against a team that is as backed into a corner as you can be. The SP+ gives the Ags a 3 point edge, while the FEI predicts an Aggie win by 5.8 points. Let’s take a closer look

Aggie Offense vs Tiger Defense

It was easier to feel good about this Aggie offense a few weeks ago. It seemed like they could alternate quarterbacks at a whim, and if nothing else, rely on a steady dose of Moss and Daniels to get 3-5 yards/carry. Now? There is a lot less to be excited about other than whatever magic Reed can create. I don’t mean to be too down on this side of the ball, I think Klein is doing the best he can, Reed is obviously very talented, and Daniels is a good back. But without Moss, and knowing very well what the Aggies have at their skill position spots, it certainly raises concerns about what this team can do against top end defenses.

And the Auburn Tigers are not elite defensively, but they’re pretty good. They’re one of the most efficient teams in the country and regularly force opponents into Passing Down situations (37% of the time, 13th in the country). They don’t generate a ton of havoc or negative plays and like the Aggies have been prone to giving up big plays this season, but they control the LOS well and despite some youth they are getting some good play from their secondary.

Aggie Defense vs Tiger Offense

Elko and Bateman’s squad is one really bad tackling game and a handful of busted plays throughout the season from being an elite defense. Before the South Carolina game, the Aggies had not given up more than 24 points all season, had been disruptive both up front and in the secondary, and been extremely efficient, getting off the field on 3rd down at a rate of 65% (16th in the country). Now for the “but”… the Ags have been one of the worst teams in FBS in explosiveness, some of that due to the 110 (!!!!!!) missed tackles this season and some of that due to coverage and other scheme busts.

The Auburn offense is not a terribly explosive one, but they run the ball pretty well and Jarquez Hunter is one of the better backs in the SEC, already eclipsing 1,000 yards on the season. They don’t protect the QB well, and they’re one of the worst teams in the country at taking care of the ball (19 turnovers on the season, 117th in FBS). Overall, Derek Nix (and Hugh Freeze) have put together a fairly efficient offense that can’t seem to get out of it’s own way, despite the strong running game, a veteran OL and QB, and a ton of talent at WR. Could it be they’re building towards something as the season closes out? 24 points against a good Kentucky defense with just one turnover a few weeks ago, as well as a dominant showing against ULM in a tune up game last week would seem to indicate yes. But an ugly loss against Vanderbilt (where the Tigers rushed for less than 100 yards, went 2/13 on 3rd downs, and scored just 7 points), seem to point to a continued lack of consistency.

So What’s the Verdict?

It’s pretty clear Auburn is not a great team, but they’re probably better than their 4-6 record indicates. Very reminiscent of how the Aggies have looked in the last couple of seasons, especially 2022. There’s justifiable nerves playing a team with a strong defense, talented wideouts, and good run game, especially when your own offense has consistency issues, on the road, at night, with so much on the line… it feels like a flashback to South Carolina a couple of weeks ago. Or to harken back to my 2022 Aggies reference, the LSU game to end that season.

So those are the reasons to be concerned, and I think the Vegas line reflects that. But there’s some reasons to think the Aggies win and do it comfortably too. For starters, this Auburn teams compares much more to a team like Arkansas (efficient, strong rushing attack, not big on explosive plays, strong Front 7, etc.) than they do the Gamecocks (who rely much more on big plays to keep the offense on the field and are far more disruptive on defense). You’d feel better about a matchup like that if you had Moss to lean on, but with Reed continuing to progress as a QB, maybe that’s a tradeoff you can live with considering this Auburn defense’s struggle against the deep ball all season. Pair that with the fact that QB Payton Thorne is not much of a running threat and has faced quite a bit of pressure from defenses with a pulse, and you might start feeling better about things.

My Prediction: South Carolina was a bad, bad game for this team, and took a lot of optimism out of the room for Aggie fans. This team is hobbled in a lot of ways by personnel available and the big game next week is certainly looming large even when we pretend it’s not. Still, I think this is a team the Aggies matchup better against, and even though it’s going to be ugly, I think they grind out a win on the road. 20-16, Aggies win, cover, and set the table for a massive Thanksgiving weekend.

Final Notes

As always, thanks for reading along. We’ll be back next week, win or lose, to talk about how burnt orange is the ugliest color that mankind has ever forced into the world. See you then.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info, including the Returning Production data. You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.