Previewing the Gamecocks with Advanced Stats

Welcome back to Fun With Numbers, the weekly look into what advanced stats say about Aggie Football and their upcoming opponent. Another week down, and the Aggies remain undefeated in SEC play following a fun win over LSU at Kyle Field last weekend. Despite the slow start, the Aggies were able to find an efficient rushing attack thanks to Reed’s added threat, the defense created enough havoc to disrupt the Tigers in the second half, and the Aggies were able to cruise to a massive 38-23 win. But just like Elko and the boys, there is only so much time to linger on the past. The next stage is possibly the biggest yet, a massive night game at your rivals house, a game that means so much to both sides because of the tradition and history behind it all… that’s right. We’re going to South Carolina.

What Do We Know?

The Ags go on the road again, this time to William Brice Stadium for “Rivalry Week”. The Cocks are 4-3 on the season, with close losses to LSU and Alabama and a 24 point loss to Ole Miss, but are coming off a 35-9 destruction of Oklahoma and a bye week to rest up. The Aggies are a 2.5 point favorite, with the SP+ predicting a 6 point victory and the FEI projecting a 1 point win for the boys in maroon. Let’s take a closer look.

Aggie Offense vs Gamecock Defense

After a pretty brutal showing in 2023 (finishing 76th in DSP+ and allowing 30+ points in 6 games), the Gamecocks have significantly improved in a lot of areas. They still have some struggles against the run, but they don’t give up a ton of big plays either on the ground or through the air, and they excel at causing chaos. Particularly up front, they’re one of the best teams in the country at rushing the passer, and they get home often (averaging 4 sacks/game). The secondary is playing really well too, both at limiting opponent’s efficiency and also in creating havoc, with 10 interceptions on the year.

That should probably be concerning for the A&M offense, which struggled against a similarly athletic LSU front until a QB switch was made. Does that mean the Aggies should start Reed and force this Gamecock defense to slow down and respect his mobility? Should Nick Emmanwori’s nose for the football (4 INTs on the year) give us pause when Conner’s last road start had 2 picks (and could have been 4?). I don’t know, but I have no doubt that will play into the decision making for this weekend.

Aggie Defense vs Gamecock Offense

The South Carolina offense hasn’t experienced the same leap forward that their defense has, probably due to the number of folks they lost over the offseason and the fact that their QB is a (talented) Redshirt Freshman who’s been down with injury some in the middle of the season. They don’t run the ball well despite Seller’s mobility and having a veteran SEC running back like Rocket Sanders, relying exclusively on big plays through the air to keep their offense on the field. And they’ve hit quite a few this season, 9 players with receptions of 25+ yards. Guys like Nyck Harbor and Joshua Simon may be tough matchups for an Aggie secondary that is still good for a couple of busts a game, but will Sellers have enough time to get the ball downfield in those cases?

So What’s the Verdict?

Seems every week is a new test for this team and for fanhood superstitions and misconceptions. Can they win on the road? What about at home? What about AT Starkville? What about at home and at night? Now it’s “what about on the road, but at night?” And I understand it too, like we saw above, this is a defense that can give the Aggies hell, especially if the offense starts slow. A couple of turnovers and short fields for Sellers to work with and you’ll find yourself in the same hole OU did a couple of weeks ago. I don’t think that will happen, even at their worst I’m not sure the Aggie offense has looked as bad as the Sooners, and by the OSP+ this Gamecock offense is nothing special.

My Prediction: I don’t think it will be pretty, it’s going to be a wild crowd and we’re not sure what the offense will look like just yet… but I feel extremely confident in this defense, especially the Front 7. I think the Aggies win it 27-17, really leaning on the run game this week to grind out a road win (similar to Florida) and take home the Bonham, the greatest trophy in all of Contrivalries.

Final Notes

As always, thanks for reading along. What a fun season it’s already been, I’m hoping it stays that way and the Aggies continue to play meaningful football in November. We’ll take a break next week and the week after, and come back to talk Auburn after that. Thanks and Gig’em.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info, including the Returning Production data. You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.