Previewing the Irish with advanced stats

Welcome back to Fun With Numbers, my weekly(ish) attempt to compile some advanced stats on the Aggie Football team and their opponent, and present it in a way that makes sense to everyone. Not to give some sort of definitive picture of what the game will look like, but to at least provide a small puzzle piece of it. This is my 7th year to write these, originally as Fan Posts and eventually featured on the GBH page.

Two coaches, three kids, and a ton of time theft later, I’m still here and so are a lot of you and that’s… something at least. If you are new here, the beginning of the season for these posts is typically kind of odd. We have to base so much of what we’re predicting on last season numbers, which becomes an even more fruitless exercise when you have new coaches at every spot on the field. So, we look at some of our overall ratings like the SP+ and the FEI which can be a little more forward looking, blend that with returning production stats, and take last year’s stats with a grain of salt. It kind of works.

What Do We Know?

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come to College Station with a Top 10 ranking, bringing College Gameday and the eyes of the CFB world onto Mike Elko’s first game as the Aggie head man. Notre Dame finished last season with a 10-3 record and ranked 14th in the AP Poll in Marcus Freeman’s 2nd year as the head coach. They lost quite a bit off that squad though, ranking 97th in Bill Connelly’s Returning Production with 53%. At this point, the Aggies are a field goal favorite in most spots, but the SP+ and the FEI both predict an Irish win (by 2 and 4 points, respectively). Let’s take a closer look

Aggie Offense vs Irish Defense

It feels like it’s been years since I’ve been able to write this section with any sort of excitement. This year could be different though, with the Aggies bringing back a good deal of production (especially up front), Conner Weigman back healthy again, and objectively the most fascinating playcaller since Kliff Kingsbury in Colin Klein.

They’ll be facing what is currently ranked as the best defense on the schedule by the SP+, a defense that held opponents to under 24 points in 11 games last season. Now, they lost some production from that squad, but the core is very much intact. Up front you have two grad seniors in Howard Cross III and Rylie Mills, and on the back end you have an elite safety in Xavier Watts (another graduate senior) and one of the best corners in College Football in Benjamin Morrison. If you’re needing to do a minor rebuild on a defense, there are far worse places to start.

Big Questions (for this game and beyond)

Is the OL Competent?

The Aggies finished 86th in Line Yards/Rush and 59th in Sack Rate in 2023. Nobody needs those stats to confirm what anybody with even a basic understanding of football saw regularly: The offensive line under Addazzio regularly seemed out of position and overwhelmed. Adam Cushing had his work cut out for him this offseason, and the interior specifically will be tested by the Irish line. I’m of the opinion this OL doesn’t need to be great for the Aggie offense to have success, they just need to be competent, and if nothing else there is a lot of starts between these guys.

Can Klein Bring Fireworks With These Skill Players?

Jimbo’s (and Petrino’s) final year at A&M might have produced his most explosive offense (36th), but it was still a regular issue on that side of the ball. Klein produced similar numbers in 2022 at Kansas State, but struggled to generate big plays in 2023. With injuries to guys like Reuben Owens and an expected contributor in Jabre Barber at WR, do the Aggies have the depth and talent to hit some explosive plays against a young linebacking group and a talented secondary?

Aggie Defense vs Irish Offense

Despite some key losses, expectations are pretty high for this defense, which finished in the DSP+ Top 15 last season despite a secondary that got beat deep far too often. The front end especially still has a lot to love, and Elko was not idle in the transfer portal this offseason. Add that to the fact that the name “Mike Elko” alone is enough to inspire confidence in your defense, considering what he did during his time here as a Defensive Coordinator.

On the other side, Marcus Freeman brought in OC Mike Denbrock, who slowly built Cincinnati’s offense to 12th in OSP+ before he left to take on the LSU job, where he produced a Top 15 unit in his first year, and then the 2nd ranked offense in year two, complete with a Heisman trophy winner and lots of video game type numbers. You know, assuming you’re good at the new NCAA game (which I am not). Like the Aggies, the Irish were busy in the portal as well, bringing in some receiver talent as well as former Duke QB Riley Leonard to run the show.

Big Questions (for this game and beyond)

Did the Portal Fix the Secondary?

As I mentioned above, the secondary got abused at times during 2023 season, and had to replace several contributors including S Demani Richardson. This year, there will be a lot of new faces. Guys like Will Lee from Kansas State, BJ Mayes from UAB, and Jaydon Hill from Florida are experienced guys who will be on the field a lot, combined with a few key pieces that the Aggies did manage to retain over the offseason like Bryce Anderson. The Irish were 16th in Passing Explosiveness last year, will the Aggies be able to keep things in front of them and possibly improve on their meager 9 interceptions from 2023?

How Elite is this DL?

Something that could help the back end of this defense would be a pass rush that could be as good as any in college football, which is what most fans are hoping to see. Not comfortable with the talented interior that the Aggies bring back into 2024, Elko also went out and grabbed one of the best pass rushers of 2023 in Nic Scourton, as well as added guys like Solomon Deshields and Cashius Howell to help control the edge. There is a lot to like about this Front 7, and they’ll be facing an extremely untested OL on Saturday night. How well can they bring pressure and (maybe more importantly) how well can they control the line of scrimmage and bottle up the Notre Dame rushing attack, which includes containing Leonard (known for his explosive run capabilities when healthy)?

So What’s the Verdict?

What a great way to start the season and coaching tenure of Mike Elko. It feels like Florida 2012 or Clemson 2018, where the excitement to just be watching something new far exceeds the fear of defeat. But we’re all sick of great games at Kyle Field that give reasons for optimism but still end in losses. We all know what it’s going to take for A&M to get over that hump this season. Offensive line improvement to keep Conner upright and healthy and give him time to make plays and a secondary that limits explosiveness would go a long way. I think the Aggies can get there, and what we see on Saturday is maybe just a taste of what this team can actually accomplish in 2024.

My prediction: I think it’s low scoring and close, with maybe a turnover or big special teams play being a big difference, and I want to believe in an Aggie win, so I will. 24-20, Aggies win and the under (46.5) cashes.

Final Notes

Thanks for reading along, I plan to be back in Week 3 for a Florida preview. Remember, as the number of games increases, so will our meaningful data. Check out these sites below where all of my info comes from.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info, including the Returning Production data. You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.