Previewing the Bulldogs with advanced stats

Welcome back to Fun With Numbers, where sometimes we can predict with a bit of accuracy how a game will go (see Arkansas) and sometimes we can be so far off we wonder if we even know what we’re talking about at all (see Missouri). Spoiler alert, I definitely don’t know what I’m talking about. But this is Fun With Numbers, so let’s get to the data.

What Do We Know?

Texas A&M goes back on the road to face their fourth conference opponent, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The CLANGAS have had an incredibly tough season, first year head coach Jeff Lebby took over a program that struggled in 2023 and still hasn’t found its footing in the wake of Mike Leach’s passing. They are 1-5, with that one win being against an FCS opponent and one of those losses being an absolute drumming by Toledo. The Aggies are a 15 point favorite, and the SP+ and FEI both have their predictions in that 15-17 point range. Let’s take a closer look.

Aggie Offense vs Bulldog Defense

It’s hard to say exactly how good this Aggie offense is, we know the run game is as good as just about any in the country and they’re doing a good job of taking care of the ball. Can they be as good as they were against Missouri on a weekly basis? That depends on a lot of things, but namely Weigman staying healthy and the receivers to continue creating separation and making plays in ways they weren’t earlier in the season.

They’re not likely to be tested or prove much this weekend though, as the Bulldog defense will be one of the worst the Aggies have faced all year, even worse than the Florida team that Marcel Reed put up 33 points on earlier this season in his first career start. They are the very definition of “bend-don’t-break”, ranking near the bottom of all FBS in efficiency stats but doing a pretty great job of limiting explosive plays (which is worth noting given some of the offenses they’ve faced thus far). Even if Conner is having an off day and the Aggies can’t recreate the offensive explosion from before the bye week, this is a team that you can run on early and often and still feel pretty good about how many points you put up.

Aggie Defense vs Bulldog Offense

The Aggie DL is continuing to play at an elite level and the secondary is coming along nicely as well. The defense is still working on eliminating busted play and limiting opponents explosiveness, but it’s hard to be too concerned considering what they did to a talented Missouri offense last week.

The story for the Bulldog offense is not quite as dire as it is on the other side of the ball, Jeff Lebby was an OC for Ole Miss and Oklahoma before taking on this job and consistently produced Top 20 OSP+ offenses at both places. He’ll be continuing to work with freshman QB Michael Van Buren Jr. who threw for 300 yards and a 38% Passing Success rate against the Georgia Bulldogs last weekend. They just haven’t been able to generate much efficiency in the run game or the passing the ball, but they have guys like Kelly Akharaiyi and Kevin Coleman Jr. who have been plenty successful bringing in some explosive catches.

So What’s the Verdict?

People get a little antsy going to Starkville, Ags have had some tough games there when expectations were high. But just like the idea of the the Aggies struggling on the road under Jimbo have no bearing on this team’s potential success, what a Sumlin team in 2014 doesn’t mean much to us today.

What does matter, is that if nothing else, this Aggie offense has shown it can run the ball even against teams stacking the box and even when they are not showing much of a passing game. That’s significant against a team that has been this bad against the run. At worst, you control the ball and the clock and you grind a win out on the road. But I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I think Conner will continue to look good, and even if the defenses whiffs on a couple of plays, for the most part they will control this Lebby offense.

My Prediction: Aggies win 31-17, the Bulldogs score late to get the backdoor cover.

Final Notes

Thanks for keeping up with the numbers this season, see you next week for LSU.

• Bcftoys.com for Brian Fremeau’s FEI data and other fun projects from him.
• ESPN.com is the home for all of Bill Connelly’s SP+ info, including the Returning Production data. You’ll need to subscribe to ESPN+ for most of his stuff these days.
• CollegeFootballData.com is a great site for data and charts that you can download and play with on your own time, in case Fun With Numbers isn’t filling that statistical void in your life. Most of my data comes from here.

Questions? Comments? Criticisms? You know where to leave ‘em.