BUBBLE BE GONE: Texas A&M is an NCAA Tournament lock

Aggies’ resume has then virtually guaranteed to be playing in the Big Dance next month

Life on the bubble has become customary for Texas A&M basketball in recent seasons, with the Aggies getting notoriously snubbed from the NCAA Tournament in 2022, criminally under-seeded in 2023 and sneaking in as a 9 seed in 2024. But it appears that won’t be a worry in 2025.

As we sit here in early February, the Aggies are, in fact, already a tournament lock.

A&M is currently at No. 14 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, with a 17-5 overall record and a 6-3 record in SEC play. But it’s not just how many games they have won, but who they have beaten that makes their tournament resume so stout. The Ags have seven “Quad 1” wins (defined as a home win against a team in the top 30, , neutral site win against a top 50 team or a road win against a top 75 team). The only team in the country with more Quad 1 wins than the Aggies is No. 1 Auburn (who has a whopping 12).

Perhaps just as importantly, all of A&M’s losses have also come against Quad 1 opponents, meaning that in addition to having many quality wins, they also don’t have any losses that the selection committee would count against them.

The elite resume Buzz Williams and his squad have built are equal parts thanks to the quality of the team and also the difficulty of their schedule. A&M spent several years playing abysmal non-conference schedules, which are held against you even if you win every game, and can be absolutely detrimental should you lose them. We found that out the hard way. But in 2024-25, A&M ranks 35th in non-conference strength of schedule, and thanks to the top-to-bottom strength of the SEC this season, they currently have the No. 4 overall strength of schedule in the entire country.

So as we sit here six weeks from Selection Sunday, the question isn’t “Will the Aggies be in?”, but rather, “How high a seed can they get?” The latest bracketology projections from ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has A&M as a four seed, as does Bracket Matrix (which aggregates every reputable bracket projection into one). This would mean the Aggies wouldn’t face a higher seed until the Sweet 16 at the earliest (but it would be the No. 1 seed in the region). If A&M could play their way into a 3 seed, they would avoid having to play the No. 1 seed until the Elite 8 (a round which no A&M program has ever reached).

There’s still a lot of season to go before the postseason arrives, and opinions of teams can and will change drastically. But this veteran Aggie squad built around defense and rebounding has the look of a team that will be a tough out for almost any opponent, and it will be fun to see just how far they can go. And not sweating it out on Selection Sunday will be a welcome change.