Alabama takes on the defending champion Michigan Wolverines in the ReliaQuest on New Year’s Eve. It was only a year ago these two teams faced off in the semi-finals when Jalen Milroe got stuffed on fourth down in overtime sending Michigan to the National Championship. Now they will travel to Tampa Bay to play in a bowl game with nothing at stake other than a victory. Bama was the last team left out of the College Football Playoffs when the committee decided to not punish SMU for losing in the championship game of an easier conference. Even Bama having better wins wasn’t enough for them to avoid this fate.
A Different Michigan
Michigan had a magical run in 2023 when they won it all. This has been a very different year. Coach Jim Harbaugh left for the NFL and Sherrone Moore got the job. Moore was the offensive coordinator last season who took over the heading coaching duties temporarily when Harbaugh was suspended. The success of last year’s team also meant a lot of the best players went pro, so this roster isn’t as nearly as talented. They finished 7-5 overall and 5-4 in a stacked Big Ten conference. But the season was basically deemed a success when they upset rival Ohio State on the road, costing the Buckeyes a chance at the Big Ten championship.
Pass Defense Needs to Dominate
The Crimson Tide defense had a good season. They finished 10th in the country with 17.2 points allowed per game. The strength was mostly the pass defense. They only gave up 191 passing yards per game, which was fifth best in the SEC, and had 16 interceptions in 12 games. Alabama should match up well with a Michigan passing game that is bottom five in the country with a putrid 133 passing yards per game. They have been shuffling quarterbacks throughout the season but most recently it’s been Davis Warren, who in eight games has six touchdowns versus nine interceptions. In the upset win over Ohio State, David was nine of 16 for only 62 yards and two interceptions so he clearly wasn’t the reason they won. There is no excuse for Kalen DeBoer’s defense to allow the passing game to do much of anything in this contest.
Achilles Heel
The Achilles heel for the defense this year was the run game. In Bama’s three losses, they got dominated by good rushers. Dylan Sampson of Tennessee carved them up on his own. The two losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma featured quarterbacks assisting in dominating rushing performances. Michigan thrives in the run game. They averaged 160 yards rushing per game and are led by two running backs. Kalel Mullings is the lead back with 948 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns on the season. He was huge in that win over the Buckeyes with 32 carries for 116 yards and a touchdown. Donovan Edwards is no slouch either with 589 yards and four touchdowns himself. If the Bama defense can contain them, it should be hard for Michigan to put points on the board.
Portal Problems
When the Bama offense is functioning at its best, it’s when Milroe is running the ball effectively. Michigan was second in the Big Ten giving up 92.6 rushing yards per game. The strength of their defense is upfront. The number one goal will be to contain Milroe. That will mean Jam Miller has to step up. He will be rolling solo in this game given that Bama’s second-best running back, Justice Haynes, has entered the transfer portal and won’t play in this game. That might mean more opportunities for Richard Young who only rushed for only 140 yards the entire year.
The passing game was solid throughout the season when Milroe could avoid turnovers. Unfortunately, that derailed games far too often, but he has two legitimate targets. Germie Bernard is a solid possession receiver who led the team with 46 receptions. Ryan Williams, named second-team All-American by the AFCA, is their best playmaker leading the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. But their depth at the position has vanished with receivers Kobe Prentice, Emmanuel Henderson, Kendrick Law, and Caleb Odom all entering the transfer portal. It’s not debilitating as those four combined for 32 catches for 381 yards this year, but injuries to Williams or Bernard would be problematic. Tight end CJ Dippre, who was third on the team in receptions and receiving yards, could also get more opportunities.
The Outlook
According to FanDuel, Alabama is favored by 12.5 over Michigan. DeBoer’s team has a lot of advantages over this Wolverines team. But this game will rest on the same thing that games have rested on most of the year: Jalen Milore. When he’s great, they’re great. When he’s bad, they’re bad. The defense has been mostly solid all year. But their losses came in games when he turned over the ball and he couldn’t run the ball successfully. It’s not going to be easy for him to do that against this defense. But as long as he’s not turning the ball over, Alabama’s defense should be able to contain Michigan’s offense. Win or lose, the biggest questions will revolve around what this team looks like in 2025 and how they can bounce back from this disappointing season.
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