A Flawed CFB Playoff Ranking: Week 12 SEC Betting Lines

Georgia and Tennessee headline the Week 12 SEC matchups, and for Georgia, the stakes couldn’t be higher. A loss to the Vols at home would eliminate their College Football Playoff hopes. As we discussed last week, Tennessee could likely absorb a loss, though it would complicate their path forward. Perhaps the wildest stat about this game is that it will be only Georgia’s fourth home game this season. Remarkably, they’ve already faced more Top 25 teams on the road—three away and one at a neutral site—than they’ve hosted at home. Check out our Between the Hedges piece later this week for a deeper preview, but first, we have to ask what is happening with the CFB Rankings.

CFB Ranking & the SEC

Speaking of home-field advantage, the Southeastern Conference has some work to do if they would like multiple first-round matchups in the South. Here is a quick look at where the teams stand after Tuesday’s standings were announced. Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU fans may wanna skip ahead to the betting lines section…

Are You Sure About That?

The rankings leave plenty to be desired. We won’t concern ourselves with SMU still being behind Miami in the ACC and keep our focus on the SEC. Ohio State coming in at #5 makes a lot of sense, but we have a hard time grasping the idea that Penn State and Indiana are both ranked AHEAD of the SEC teams. Sure the loss column says that Indiana is undefeated and Penn State has one loss, but what about the eye test or a few pieces of data? Let’s look at two key data points to help understand where the committee is coming from. Here are the teams that are ranked.

Why do we need a committee? If we are just going to use wins and losses, which seems like what the committee is doing, then we don’t need a television show. Instead, just looking at the data, it shows the rankings need another look. It gets worse when we look at those teams on the bubble…

Wait…There’s more

Georgia was the first team to drop out of the rankings. Sure, they were a no-show in Oxford this weekend, but do other results matter? Both of Georgia’s wins were by double digits: a 15-point win at Texas and a 28-point win against Clemson in Atlanta. LSU and Texas A&M have multiple wins over Top 25 teams but are left on the outside. Even South Carolina has a Top 25 win and two close calls.

What would Fan Duel have the spread if any of these teams were playing Penn State or Indiana? There is a strong argument that the SEC teams would likely be favored. All of this goes out the window if any of these teams fall to three losses. South Carolina is already eliminated based on this criteria, but a closer look shows that the committee needs to really think about more than wins or losses.

Week 12 SEC Betting Lines

The cupcakes, err, FCS games, are coming to the Week 12 SEC slate. While those may be sweet, we have two ranked-on-ranked matchups this week. The Georgia vs. Tennessee game will be a CFB Playoff elimination game, and the South Carolina vs. Missouri game should put to rest any notion that the Tigers should be ranked in the Top 25. Check out the noon game in Fayetteville for your upset special. Sam Pittman and the Hogs upset the Longhorns two years ago in Donald W. Reynolds Stadium. Rankings are based on the College Football Playoff Committee rankings. SEC betting lines and game totals are courtesy of FanDuel. All games are Eastern Standard Time. Check the links for insights from your favorite Last Word on College Football writers.

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