With 171 days until Big 12 teams officially kick off the 2025 season, the best forward look college fans can use right now is what Vegas gives out. The 2025 Big 12 win totals have officially posted on FanDuel and Last Word has some thoughts. If anyone is new to the Big 12, here is the obligatory disclaimer. This league is wildly competitive and unpredictable. Again, for those who ignored the Big 12 in 2024 after Texas and Oklahoma left, Arizona State won the league after being picked to finish dead last in the pre-season. The professional efforts of Last Word to correctly pick the right side of the 2024 pre-season totals resulted in an ugly 6-10 outcome. But just like the best teams, Last Word studied the film and has some initial thoughts for those looking to capitalize on the early market.
2025 Big 12 Win Totals Show Small Gap From Top/Bottom Of League
It is worth repeating that the competitiveness of this league is unmatched. The talent gap between these teams is razor-thin. Going into the last weekend of the season, almost half of the league was still mathematically alive to play in the Big 12 championship. The anticipation by all is that 2025 will offer more of the same. Not a single team has a win total set higher than 8.5 wins. Conversely, the 2025 Big 12 win totals do not drop that drastically with the lowest number set at 5.5 wins. According to the folks in the desert, Arizona State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech are the early favorites to win the Big 12. Those are the only three teams with win totals set at the high mark of 8.5. Kenny Dillingham will need to replace Cam Skattebo. Chris Klieman is hoping to get another jump in the passing development of Avery Johnson. Joey McGuire brought in one of the top transfer classes in the nation and must get the most out of this influx of talent in Lubbock.
Meanwhile, Arizona, Houston, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia comprise the three teams with win totals at the 5.5 win mark. Brent Brennan has Noah Fifita back at quarterback, but it feels like his seat is already pretty warm in only his second season. Willie Fritz’s team is looking to make a big jump in his second season down in Houston. Mike Gundy’s Cowboy team is looking to bounce back after the worst season in 20 seasons. Rich Rodriquez is back in Morgantown for his second stint and trying to rekindle the magic he found during the early 2000s.
Worst Value
The worst value here is all relative. Anytime one’s hard-earned money is attached to a bet and it wins, it is always a good day. But what we are doing here is trying to highlight some of the options that might not be worth the squeeze. This is a combination of expectations for the team and how drastically different it is from what Vegas believes. With the wide variety of outcomes, there is plenty of high value to be had in this league. After all only three of the 16 teams have negative odds to clear the win total. We will dive into that more shortly.
But in terms of the “worst value” of all the 2025 Big 12 win totals, that nod goes to Houston. The Cougars went 4-8 in 2024. Fritz’s reputation, as well as signs from the end of last season, suggest that this team should be a bowl-bound team. Increasing their win total by just two games appears to be a fairly easy hurdle to clear. Vegas agrees setting their odds at -170, meaning one would need to be $17 to win $10. These are the worst odds set of all the 2025 Big 12 win totals. So if we want our money to go further, where does our attention need to go?
Fools Gold?
With plus odds for 13 different teams, there is value abound for all parties. Plus odds mean that a $10 bet will return over $10 in value. For those feeling very optimistic about their favorite Big 12 team, odds say they have a chance to make a good return on their money. But who holds the best value in March? The first look suggests it might be Dave Aranda’s Baylor squad. Baylor was left for dead mid-way through 2024 before rattling off six straight wins to finish the regular season at 8-4. The Bears are currently +110 to clear 7.5 wins. The initial assessment of this team is that the important contributors are back and that Aranda figured it out, so no need to think they can win eight games again. However, Aranda has been far from consistent in Waco. Until 2024, Aranda had only won a combined 11 games in the three seasons when he wasn’t playing for a Big 12 title. The Bears also haven’t won 8+ games in consecutive seasons since 2014 and 2015.
Possibly the most consistent team in the Big 12 over the last decade has been the Kansas State Wildcats. They are always competitive and find themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings. The Wildcats are +128 to clear 8.5 wins. With a potential Heisman candidate at quarterback, it appears like something to take to the bank. But while consistency hasn’t been an issue in Manhattan, getting above the eight-win mark has. They have only won nine regular-season games two times in the last 12 seasons.
Best Value
With win totals in general, the best value is always to look at the teams with the lowest bar to clear. We already mentioned how Houston didn’t have good value because of the poor odds Vegas was offering. Arizona hasn’t done anything to inspire any confidence. The variability for a year-one head coach is all over the map, so West Virginia is out. That leaves with the obvious choice of Oklahoma State. Gundy did not make any massive sweeping changes to his coaching staff. He also did not revamp his roster through the transfer portal.
But at +152, this is too good to pass up on. The Pokes have not won less than six games in back-to-back seasons since 2000 and 2001. Gundy has only missed bowl season in his first season back in 2005 and in 2024. His coaching career is littered with examples of having his best seasons when the expectations are the lowest. A 2-1 mark in non-conference play is all but guaranteed with their schedule. So they need to find four wins in a nine-game Big 12 slate in which only four of their opponents have a current win total of 7.5 wins or higher. Go lock up the Cowboys before Vegas notices.
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