With Arizona State bowing out of the college football playoff in spectacular fashion, the Big 12 is officially done playing football. It was an incredibly fun and chaotic season for the Big 12. With the ride officially coming to a halt, it’s time to review the Big 12 win totals from the pre-season. Last Word wants to ensure accountability for the readers, so we have to acknowledge both the good and bad moments. With the unpredictability that unfolded, it did not bow well for the profitability of our future selections prior to the ball kicking off in 2024.
Best Pick – Kansas State Under 9.5 Wins
However, taking to the bank at least 10 wins seems too tall of a task in a tightly contested conference.
Last Word said that when describing Kansas State before this season started. Chris Klieman’s team didn’t have a bad season. The Wildcats did finish 8-4 in the regular season. This is essentially where this team has finished eight of the last 12 seasons. This program has been the model of consistency. However, they have not been able to make that jump into the upper echelon of college football programs. Yes, they won the Big 12 in 2022.
But they qualified for the game with a 9-3 regular season. The last time they cleared the nine-win mark in the regular season was 2012. Quarterback Avery Johnson was better, but still limited as a passer. That negative trait showed up in their losses this season. No doubt the Wildcats will be a force in the Big 12 next season. But they will need Johnson to improve his passing if they want to get to double-digit regular season wins.
Worst Pick – Arizona State Under 4.5 Wins
The Sun Devils still lack the depth of Big 12 talent all across the board. Expect another long season in the desert.
This prediction offered up by Last Word on Kenny Dillingham’s squad aged like milk left out in the July Tempe, AZ sun. The only solace we can take with this is that not a single person saw the run the Sun Devils made this season coming. Sure, some yahoos yuckin’ it up could have seen Arionza State clearing five wins. Especially knowing how relatively weak their non-conference schedule turned out to be. But Cam Skattebo was on no one’s radar as a breakout player/someone who would finish in the top five in Heisman Trophy voting. It should serve as an example to the other 15 members of the Big 12 that an immense turnaround is always possible in one season.
Correct Big 12 Win Totals (6)
In addition to Kansas State, the Big 12 win totals we got correct were as follows:
- Arizona under 7.5
- BYU over 4.5
- Cincinnati under 5.5
- Kansas under 8.5
- Texas Tech over 7.5
The Wildcats, even with them bringing back all of the skill position talent they had, couldn’t overcome a new coaching staff. Last Word’s exact phrasing was “In year one under new head coach Brent Brennan, even with top-tier skill talent, Last Word thinks the Wildcats will take a step back and win 7 games in their first Big 12 season”. We expected BYU to clear their 4.5 Big 12 win total but did not see a 10-win season out of the Cougars.
We thought Kansas could only clear 8.5 wins if “[Jalon] Daniels can play in at least 10 games.” Well, Daniels had his healthy season to date, playing in all 12 games this season. But for some reason, Lance Leipold’s team had a hard to finishing games in the first half of the season. Daniels also had problems protecting the football. Both Texas Tech and Cincinnati covered their Big 12 win totals by a single win
Missed Big 12 Win Totals (10)
Now to the ugly part of the Big 12 win totals we got wrong, some of which were further out of bounds than my first tee shot in front of a group waiting for me to play through. We already noted the Arizona State swing and miss, but here are the other nine we missed the mark on:
- Baylor under 5.5
- Colorado under 5.5
- Houston under 3.5
- Iowa State under 7.5
- Oklahoma State over 8.5
- TCU under 7.5
- UCF over 7.5
- Utah over 9.5
- West Virginia over 6.5
Arizona State was the ugliest of these. But close behind was Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ original Big 12 win total opened at 7.5 before it was bet up to 8.5. It turns out 7.5 was too high of a hill to climb. The weirdest part of Oklahoma State missing their total as badly as they did is the fact that they started 3-0 including a win over a bowl-eligible Arkansas team (who just took Texas Tech to the woodshed in the Liberty Bowl). Utah also missing the mark was pretty ugly, but we should have paid more attention to Cam Rising’s health history and the lack of a plan Utah has shown in those situations.
More Notes On The Missed Selections
Baylor’s 2-4 start on the season looked like Dave Aranda was cruising towards a firing and a Big 12 win total win for Last Word. But the Bears turned it around and won their last six to finish 8-4. Iowa State finally broke through over 100 years of history to get to the Big 12 conference title game and win 10 games in the regular season. We were very high on UCF because “transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson seems to be the perfect fit for [Gus] Malzhan’s offense.” He was benched after the first five games of the season and the defense did not improve from 2023.
Colorado did indeed prove Last Word and the hater wrong by successfully portaling a brand-new offensive line and letting its elite skill position players shine. Travis Hunter set all kinds of new records for All-American selections on both sides of the ball as well as securing the Heisman Trophy. The 6-10 mark for Last Word’s Big 12 win total selection, while it stings the pride, certainly highlights just how wide-open the Big 12 conference is.
The post 2024 Big 12 Win Totals Review appeared first on Last Word on College Football.